Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 20 Oct 2018, 16:42:09

The all-time greatest moment of oil production quantity occurs just before peak. That occurred yesterday.

Tomorrow is the decline. :?
"Fortune is of a sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid."
Lucius Annaeus Seneca
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27590
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 21 Oct 2018, 11:43:40

pstarr wrote:The all-time greatest moment of oil production quantity occurs just before peak. That occurred yesterday.
Tomorrow is the decline. :?


How many times have you claimed that before?

Image
"this is peak now. Wanna bet?" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T PAY. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
asg70
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1919
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 21 Oct 2018, 12:32:20

pstarr wrote:The all-time greatest moment of oil production quantity occurs just before peak. That occurred yesterday.

Tomorrow is the decline. :?

At least a broken clock (with an IQ of zero) is right twice a day more often than pstarr. :razz:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5794
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 21 Oct 2018, 16:00:36

When Permian goes down . . . so goes America. Down. Deep water GOM is holding steady (sort of) yet not enough to make up for collapsing North Slope. Anwr is decades away, if ever. The rest in decline.

Tight shale will not happen in time, anywhere to stave off peak and decline.

OPEC has already peaked.

There is no Arctic in the near future. Shell gave up.

Deep water Angola is not happening. Nor is deep water Brazil.

The rest of the world has peaked (except possibly Russian and a few minor Stans)

Did I miss anything??
"Fortune is of a sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid."
Lucius Annaeus Seneca
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27590
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 21 Oct 2018, 16:06:33

pstarr wrote:Did I miss anything??

Yes you did. The usual false Cassandra claim that there are no more major productive oil deposits to be found globally. Or the implication that improving technology can't help. Or that market forces (if prices rise due to REAL WORLD shortages), that more oil can't be found.

Or your track record of literally thousands of completely bogus predictions of "doom" on this site over the past decade plus, which you pretend have no bearing on how credible your empty claims are.

But by all means, do carry on. Cassandras need hobbies too.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5794
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 21 Oct 2018, 16:18:03

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:Did I miss anything??

Yes you did. The usual false Cassandra claim that there are no more major productive oil deposits to be found globally.

As, rockdoc where those as-yet-to-be-discovered oil reserves are hiding. Are those precious reserves in Chicago? Are they under my chair? Deepest Africa? Ask rockdoc about Argentina. Where? What continent has not been thoroughly scoured for petroleum?

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Or the implication that improving technology can't help. Or that market forces (if prices rise due to REAL WORLD shortages), that more oil can't be found.
See my question above? Is it under your house? Not hiding anything Under the seas in the Antarctic? Oh wait . . . the antarctic is above the seas. My bad lol

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Or your track record of literally thousands of completely bogus predictions of "doom" on this site over the past decade plus, which you pretend have no bearing on how credible your empty claims are.

But by all means, do carry on. Cassandras need hobbies too.

What predictions have I made in the past? You are confusing me with others in your tepid imagination. I will make on prediction right now, right here . . . this is peak now. Wanna bet?
"Fortune is of a sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid."
Lucius Annaeus Seneca
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27590
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 22 Oct 2018, 08:33:11

pstarr wrote:. . . this is peak now. Wanna bet?


Thanks. My sig now has something to stick in there.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet?" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T PAY. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
asg70
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1919
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 22 Oct 2018, 10:35:40

". . . this is peak now. Wanna bet?". A foolish wager IMHO. Unless you're willing to wait decades before finding out if it's correct. Global PO can only be confirmed with any degree of confidence by looking in the rear view mirror. A very long term rear view mirror.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11178
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 22 Oct 2018, 10:49:01

ROCKMAN wrote:". . . this is peak now. Wanna bet?". A foolish wager IMHO. Unless you're willing to wait decades before finding out if it's correct. Global PO can only be confirmed with any degree of confidence by looking in the rear view mirror. A very long term rear view mirror.


Indeed! Just look to the USA for proof, nearly everyone was convinced our peak production was in 1970-71 and could never ever ever exceed those levels. From 1972-2008 with the brief exception of Alaskan productions spike that lasted five years but never approached the prior peak it appeared true. Then in 2009-2010 the USA oil production went from a gradual sustained decline to first a hold and then a slight increase. by 2011 the increase was a mounting influence and right through 2014 it grew with extreme rapidity. The resulting world oil glut and price collapse through 2015 and the first half of 2016 took a big bite out of USA production, but it was still a long way above the 2005 level even after 18 months of declines. but when prices started to rebound in the second half of 2016 production stopped declining and as prices tentatively rose through 2017 and 2018 up to date USA production has not only recovered everything lost in 2015 production, we are now well above 1970-71 production levels and still growing, though not quite as fast as we were earlier this year.

So if you want to call peak how do you know it is peak? In the USA we peaked at the start of the 70's but in 2018 we are now exceeding that peak and setting new all time records of production. Certainly the USA is still consuming more than we produce, but we are importing several million barrels fewer a day than we were in 2005-08 and those bbls/d we do not buy are flowing in China and India who have ballooning private ICE vehicle fleets.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 15046
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 22 Oct 2018, 11:14:10

Oil is not just another commodity. Supply and price at the margins can have a profound effects on fragile industrial and economic sectors. See Taintner's Diminishing Returns of Complexity.

The Greatest Recession never ended, it was merely glossed over by untenable debt that will never be paid. Few countries do not now struggle with some sort of severe economic disruption or crisis.

There will no longer be rear view mirrors in "a few decades." Certainly not attached to the mirror post on a late model car. Perhaps hanging from the bed post in the boudoir of some tribal hotties hut lol
"Fortune is of a sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid."
Lucius Annaeus Seneca
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27590
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 23 Oct 2018, 11:23:42

pstarr wrote:Oil is not just another commodity. Supply and price at the margins can have a profound effects on fragile industrial and economic sectors. See Taintner's Diminishing Returns of Complexity.

The Greatest Recession never ended, it was merely glossed over by untenable debt that will never be paid. Few countries do not now struggle with some sort of severe economic disruption or crisis.

There will no longer be rear view mirrors in "a few decades." Certainly not attached to the mirror post on a late model car. Perhaps hanging from the bed post in the boudoir of some tribal hotties hut lol

Are you actually Starving Lion? Your posts seem to sound more and more like him.

Since you know so much about economics, why don't you write a book are regale the world with how the past 9+ years of significant economic growth is a continuation of "the greatest recession"? Why don't you like, prove it, with math, credible citations, and a meaningful argument?

Unlike your delusions of economic catastrophe, the global economy, re countries in "crisis", there are few countries in recession. I've seen a number of headlines discussing how re countries in recession, the number is near or at historical lows in 2018.

For example, re a quick search:

https://theotrade.com/2018-expected-few ... sion-ever/

The world economy has NEVER been in better shape.

(Emphasis on never, mine.)

Even if reasonable people might quibble on this, i's not QUITE economic armageddon, as you continually claim, now is it? :roll:

Of course, I'm using economic reality as understood by sane people using objective measurements, not Starving Lion like Cassandra ranting.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5794
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 23 Oct 2018, 11:31:00

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:. . . this is peak now. Wanna bet?


Thanks. My sig now has something to stick in there.

Excellent point.

My sig reflects which way my bet would go on that. Of course, if it IS peak, that should help my oil stocks as it pushes oil prices higher. Is it "cheating" to profit from rising oil prices instead of rising volumes over time, pstarr? Enquiring minds want to know. (But either works for me, just fine).

(And I know, the ETP monster will crawl out and consume us all, any time now). :badgrin:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5794
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 23 Oct 2018, 13:54:00

You do realize that maximum production occurs right before the peak?

If you have evidence there will be another peak (or many other peaks) then you, outcaste are obligated to reveal the resources-P5/p50 reserves that can be brought on line in a timely future.

Right now every virtually oil region, every active play is maxed out. If you have contrary data please share it with us. Otherwise stop you endless parade of name-calling and idiocy.

Got game?
"Fortune is of a sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid."
Lucius Annaeus Seneca
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27590
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 24 Oct 2018, 11:00:04

pstarr wrote:You do realize that maximum production occurs right before the peak?


Nobody really cares about statistical peak. They care about doom. At present climate change is a far more imminent threat than resource-scarcity.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet?" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T PAY. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
asg70
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1919
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 24 Oct 2018, 21:52:34

pstarr wrote:You do realize that maximum production occurs right before the peak?

If you have evidence there will be another peak (or many other peaks) then you, outcaste are obligated to reveal the resources-P5/p50 reserves that can be brought on line in a timely future.

Right now every virtually oil region, every active play is maxed out. If you have contrary data please share it with us. Otherwise stop you endless parade of name-calling and idiocy.

Got game?

Look in the mirror, and then tell the person you see to stop with the idiocy (i.e. constant short term calls for peaks, doom, etc, and always being wrong). Once that person has complied with that, be SURE and get back to us. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5794
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 29 Oct 2018, 19:48:44

pstarr wrote:What predictions have I made in the past? You are confusing me with others in your tepid imagination. I will make on prediction right now, right here . . . this is peak now. Wanna bet?

Here's a prediction you made June 8, 2009
OilFinder2 wrote:
pstarr wrote:I am not predicting much of anything,

Oh really? I'd be more than happy to point out how many times recently you've told us:

1) We are past peak
pstarr wrote:not a prediction. We are.

Even after 9 years I still remember that one. :lol:

And notice right below that I said I'd be bookmarking that post. Nine years later it came in handy! :shock:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9538
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 29 Oct 2018, 20:35:18

EIA uses data that I feed them. The EIA does not engage in systematic down-hole analysis, only refers to data that I feed them. I fed EIA poo just to kid you, copious.

How are those discoveries you used to post under your banned login . . . 'oilfinder'? ha ha ha
"Fortune is of a sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid."
Lucius Annaeus Seneca
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27590
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 29 Oct 2018, 21:11:45

Aaaand ... in the intervening 9 years, p-the-starr has become even more incoherent than he used to be. :|

BTW my old user name was never banned, I just changed it.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9538
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 29 Oct 2018, 21:17:13

copious.abundance wrote:BTW my old user name was never banned, I just changed it.

Ha ha ha funny :lol:
"Fortune is of a sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid."
Lucius Annaeus Seneca
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27590
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 29 Oct 2018, 21:27:11

What's so funny? I can prove it.

You can see my posts under this user name go all the way back to 2008, which is long before I started using copious.abundance. Thus, I just changed the name, never got banned. People were even addressing me as OilFinder2. 8O
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9538
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Previous

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 20 guests

cron