Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 10 Oct 2018, 05:58:22

G'morning, Cid.

Yeah, there's basically no wind shear to weaken it. Just a thin band of dry air high up, but everywhere else, plenty of wet, hot, juicy air to keep it pumped.

Latest eye pressure: 931.7 mb and dropping fast (down 6 mb in the last hour)! There are 180 + mph winds up inside this thing, surface windspeeds already ~145 mph and increasing. Cat 5 is 157+.

Cat 5's are generally below 920 mb, and this is one is dropping fast with about ten hours over open, hot, steamy water before landfall...so yeah, it is likely to get at least close to a cat 5. Yikes. Some folks along the coast decided to stay in their trailer homes. We aren't likely to hear from them again...ever... :cry:

Some perspective...only 9 hurricanes have ever made landfall in the US with eye pressures of 931 mb or lower (since accurate records started being made in 1850).

Already 4 feet of storm surge in Apalachicola, expecting up to 13 feet.

Double eyewall now forming, which will likely sustain till landfall, increasing area of maximum winds...it just keeps getting worse...
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17652
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 10 Oct 2018, 07:01:43

And...good morning, Michael:


Image
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17652
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 07:17:15

Don't have the link now, but some people are looking back at instrumental measurements and saying it was indeed a cat 5 at landfall, after all.

(nice to see the site back up, by the way...was it down for everyone one else for the last couple days?)
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17652
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Tuike » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 07:25:13

dohboi wrote:(nice to see the site back up, by the way...was it down for everyone one else for the last couple days?)


Yes, the site was down.

A rare hurricane to hit continental Portugal.
Portugal Is Facing the Region’s Strongest Atlantic Storm Since 1842 -bloomberg
User avatar
Tuike
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 496
Joined: Mon 10 Jan 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Finland

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 07:27:39

Wow. Somehow I missed that. Thanks for the heads up.

Lots of weird sh!t going down recently...

...found the quote, by FOoW at asif, usually a reliable source, though he doesn't give a link here:

The air force hurricane hunter plane had evidence of 140kt surface winds (about 160mph) but it was considered a suspect measurement and was rejected. Based on a combination of factors, including flight level winds, surface pressure of 919 combined with a small eye, satellite measured cloud top heights, ADT values and damage reports, I suspect that the rejected measurement was good.

There's a very good chance that Michael will be reclassified a low end category 5 of 140 knots.


Also note: four Category 4 U.S. #hurricane landfalls in less than 14 months.

#HurricaneMichael #Michael

https://mobile.twitter.com/chrisdolcewx ... 0339412992

Death toll keeps rising as the start to search for bodies through the rubble. 17 last I saw. We will probably never know, as many bodies were probably washed out to see. Last I saw before the storm there were some 25,000 people on the outer islands, and many posters at cat6 were pessimistic that most would survive.
Last edited by dohboi on Sat 13 Oct 2018, 07:41:30, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17652
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 07:35:56

More on Leslie here

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... s#contents

There have been a couple that have spun out mid atlantic
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 11104
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 09:06:50

dohboi wrote:Wow. Somehow I missed that. Thanks for the heads up.

Lots of weird sh!t going down recently...

...found the quote, by FOoW at asif, usually a reliable source, though he doesn't give a link here:

The air force hurricane hunter plane had evidence of 140kt surface winds (about 160mph) but it was considered a suspect measurement and was rejected. Based on a combination of factors, including flight level winds, surface pressure of 919 combined with a small eye, satellite measured cloud top heights, ADT values and damage reports, I suspect that the rejected measurement was good.

There's a very good chance that Michael will be reclassified a low end category 5 of 140 knots.


Also note: four Category 4 U.S. #hurricane landfalls in less than 14 months.

#HurricaneMichael #Michael

https://mobile.twitter.com/chrisdolcewx ... 0339412992

Death toll keeps rising as the start to search for bodies through the rubble. 17 last I saw. We will probably never know, as many bodies were probably washed out to see. Last I saw before the storm there were some 25,000 people on the outer islands, and many posters at cat6 were pessimistic that most would survive.


Yep, another multi-billion dollar disaster. One wonders how long the system can keep covering the costs. Just print more debt, I guess. Now the insurance adjusters will be deciding if it was wind or water that destroyed those structures. It must be getting problematic for the underwriters these days.

It's a shame it had to happen to Mexico Beach. It was one of the last remaining "Old Florida" beach villages, and was one of the few places in Florida I still cared about. I used to go fishing out of there every couple of years and it hadn't changed much in decades, except for a few beach cottages being replaced by more modern to-code houses. I remember thinking ; 'God help these folks if they ever take a direct hit'....
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2468
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Cog » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 10:18:59

I'll bet you $1000 dollars that 25,000 people didn't die in Hurricane Michael. You want that bet Ghung?
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10873
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 10:24:29

Cog wrote:I'll bet you $1000 dollars that 25,000 people didn't die in Hurricane Michael. You want that bet Ghung?


Who said anything about 25,000 people dying? Nobody (that would be you).
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2468
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Cog » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 10:47:28

From the article you posted:

"Last I saw before the storm there were some 25,000 people on the outer islands, and many posters at cat6 were pessimistic that most would survive."

So do we have a bet or not?
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10873
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 12:12:52

Cog wrote:From the article you posted:

"Last I saw before the storm there were some 25,000 people on the outer islands, and many posters at cat6 were pessimistic that most would survive."

So do we have a bet or not?


I didn't post an article. It wasn't even from an article. It was a comment from dohboi, so maybe he'll take your bet, but I seriously doubt it. Any decent person I know would be worried about those who are dead or unaccounted for rather than making bets on how many may have died. Seems rather socio-apethetic to me.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2468
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 12:30:41

Well, when Puerto Rico INVENTED a new method of counting hurricane casualties that inflated the official death toll by 46X, we had quite a discussion about that. When Michael crossed the panhandle it was briefly a Force 2 storm, dropped to F1 almost immediately, then became a tropical storm or F0. However it was very large in area and produced a four foot storm surge that unfortunately was very close to the annual "king tide" (highest tide of the year). That's a recipe for widespread destruction to a vulnerable beach area.

Last I heard the official death toll was 17 with many still missing.

It may sound cruel, but I believe that we should pay the storm claims from the storm, and then refuse to write policies for vulnerable beaches. In the current situation with SLR, I do not want to spend taxpayer money subsidizing people who really can't afford to live on the beach. I'm also in favor of strengthening building codes until the typical remaining beach residence is largely storm resistent, and must be replaced on the owner's dime alone.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5404
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 12:52:33

KaiserJeep wrote:Well, when Puerto Rico INVENTED a new method of counting hurricane casualties that inflated the official death toll by 46X, we had quite a discussion about that. When Michael crossed the panhandle it was briefly a Force 2 storm, dropped to F1 almost immediately, then became a tropical storm or F0. However it was very large in area and produced a four foot storm surge that unfortunately was very close to the annual "king tide" (highest tide of the year). That's a recipe for widespread destruction to a vulnerable beach area.

Last I heard the official death toll was 17 with many still missing.

It may sound cruel, but I believe that we should pay the storm claims from the storm, and then refuse to write policies for vulnerable beaches. In the current situation with SLR, I do not want to spend taxpayer money subsidizing people who really can't afford to live on the beach. I'm also in favor of strengthening building codes until the typical remaining beach residence is largely storm resistent, and must be replaced on the owner's dime alone.


Determining how storm casualties are recorded is one thing. Making bets on the death toll is downright pathological.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2468
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 13:25:49

Cog is obviously trying to get folks riled up. Like a 3 year old seeking attention.

Let maturity guide your responses.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 11104
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby careinke » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 22:28:59

KaiserJeep wrote:Well, when Puerto Rico INVENTED a new method of counting hurricane casualties that inflated the official death toll by 46X, we had quite a discussion about that. When Michael crossed the panhandle it was briefly a Force 2 storm, dropped to F1 almost immediately, then became a tropical storm or F0. However it was very large in area and produced a four foot storm surge that unfortunately was very close to the annual "king tide" (highest tide of the year). That's a recipe for widespread destruction to a vulnerable beach area.

Last I heard the official death toll was 17 with many still missing.

It may sound cruel, but I believe that we should pay the storm claims from the storm, and then refuse to write policies for vulnerable beaches. In the current situation with SLR, I do not want to spend taxpayer money subsidizing people who really can't afford to live on the beach. I'm also in favor of strengthening building codes until the typical remaining beach residence is largely storm resistent, and must be replaced on the owner's dime alone.


I would go even further, pay the claim and take title of the property. Probably the cheapest way to get a nice buffer zone.
Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
User avatar
careinke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3508
Joined: Mon 01 Jan 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 05:58:55

GHung said, "...multi-billion-dollar disaster..."

Yeah, I heard that just the damage to the military base it hit was over a billion dollars...

As the saying goes, a billion here, a billion there...pretty soon your talkin' real money!

We are starting to see in real time the human and monetary costs incurred from not doing all we could to avoid the emissions that are now causing catastrophic AGW.

One of the lessons from this storm is how quickly and unpredictably it blew up from at tropical depression to a major hurricane. That left a lot of people unprepared. If you just happened to miss a news cycle, and were not very interactive with people around you, you probably would have just stayed put out of pure ignorance.

This kind of rapidity of development and the resultant unpredictable-ness is what we can expect from storms in the future...making them ever more dangerous, deadly and costly.

I heard a lot of the costs incurred from damage at the base was because they just didn't have time to secure some planes nor fly others out of harm's way. In one aerial drone video of it, some of the planes were just flipped over by the wind.

Another point...many people are comparing this to a bomb being dropped on the area. I remind one and all that GW is adding the energy equivalent of well over half a million Hiroshima-obliterating atom bombs to the atmosphere every day. We are seeing those 'bombs' starting to fall on American cities (as well, of course, on many other locals).
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17652
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 06:46:58

Dohboi,

In the one video I saw of the base the flipped planes appeared to be retired planes on static display. Old and obsolete models. Not sure but that was how it looked.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 11104
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Cog » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 07:01:47

The flipped over plane was a static display. There were other planes damaged in a hanger that were not in a flyable condition. Other planes that were flyable were evacuated a few days before the hurricane arrived.

At any point in time, there are planes down for maintenance. If those planes were further damaged, the planes will be stripped for spare parts if it makes sense not to bring them back up to ready condition.
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10873
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 07:39:15

In point of fact, the flipped over plane was a Russian MIG-21 "Fishbed" fighter/interceptor, part of a display of captured aircraft, and planes turned over by Soviet defectors.

It's not clear to me that storms have increased in either frequency or duration, since I was a kid 50-60 years ago. There is evidence of this as well:

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/historical-atlantic-hurricane-and-tropical-storm-records/

Long duration (2+ days) storms have definately not increased. Short duration storms are not believed to have increased either, but are being reported with increased frequency by larger numbers of observers. Likewise, storm damages due to wind/rain intensity may have increased, or there may simply be more of mankind's creations to be damaged.

It is curious, because the normal and expected result of a warming planet would be storms increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity. That such increases are not happening is yet another dataset that disputes AGW impacts.

But people driving SUVs instead of bicycles is apparently not the root cause. I watched a storm that was only briefly an F2 get blown into a ravaging monster by the media in a slow news cycle, even though the crucial mid-term elections are but days away.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5404
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 09:29:07

What the disaster at the air force base tells me is building airfields within a hundred miles of the hurricane coast is a really bad idea. From a hundred miles inland the response time to an invader is only a few minutes, so putting the base smack on the coast is both unnecessary and unwise.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 14964
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

PreviousNext

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests