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Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 30 Sep 2018, 09:30:18

Artic Sea ice volume 2018

Average Arctic sea ice volume in August 2018 was 6200 km3. This value is the 6th lowest on record about 1200 km3 above the August record that was set in 2012 with ~5,000 km3 . Ice volume was 66% below the maximum in 1979 and 50% below the mean value for 1979-2017. August 2018 ice volume falls just a notch above the long term trend line.

Ice thickness anomalies anomalies 2018 relative to 2011-2017 (Fig 6) continue what previous months showed with positive anomalies in the East Siberian Sea. Positive thickness anomalies also developed in the Eastern Beaufort. The Atlantic side of the Arctic features thinner than normal, relative to 2011-2017, ice thickness. Ice thickness is again anomalous north of Greenland where a large Polynya had opened up during the second half of February due to strong off shore motion (Fig 7) of sea ice brought about by unusual wind patterns. This area reopened during August.

Ice thickness anomalies from CryoSat AWI for April (no ice thickness from CryoSat is available between May-Sept) show very similar overall pattern (Fig 9.) supporting the idea that ice was thicker that normal over the recent years (2011-2017) along the Siberian coast. This is the result of anomalously large sea ice advection by winds into this area

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects ... e-anomaly/
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Fig.1
I see no new trend but decline as usual.... @>400 ppm C02 and >1900 ppb CH4

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 30 Sep 2018, 14:34:43

Image
RE: Fig.1
It is possible to draw a straight line from 2012 to 2018 if one chooses to do so.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby jawagord » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 19:59:09

So while the AGW fear mongers sit comfortably ensconced at PSU or CU Boulder contemplating the dangers of shrinking sea ice and polar vortex snow storms, in the real world some of that 4+ million square kilometers of floating ice has cut off 3 northern Canadian hamlets from receiving their yearly supplies.

A massive outflow of heavy sea ice from the High Arctic has cut three communities off from their annual resupply barge shipment leaving household groceries, construction materials and municipal equipment stranded on the docks in Tuktoyaktuk.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/ ... s-stranded
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 06 Oct 2018, 17:00:24

Jag,

This really has nothing to do with climate change. That those areas have been cut off is hardly surprising. If anything fact that they expect to receive waterborne supplies shows how much things have changed.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 06 Oct 2018, 19:03:08

Newfie wrote:Jag,

This really has nothing to do with climate change. That those areas have been cut off is hardly surprising. If anything fact that they expect to receive waterborne supplies shows how much things have changed.


There have been barges running in the Canadian Arctic for almost 50 years, nothing to do with climate change, everything to do with "nothing has really changed" in the Arctic, ice still rules. Doomers and Luke warmers can relax.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 06 Oct 2018, 19:47:28

OK show me your proof of that. I’ll listen. I want to see 50 years of barges running to Cambridge. I could not find it.

Bur also remember there are over a hundred years of exploration before anyone made it across the NS passage, and the first was MC Clure, who took over 2 years, and he walked.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 06 Oct 2018, 20:27:55

Newfie wrote:OK show me your proof of that. I’ll listen. I want to see 50 years of barges running to Cambridge. I could not find it.

Bur also remember there are over a hundred years of exploration before anyone made it across the NS passage, and the first was MC Clure, who took over 2 years, and he walked.


There is lots of history of shipping in the Arctic Newfie, nothing new about it, how do you think Franklins ships got there? Barges were supporting Arctic oil and mining in the 60’s and 70’s, transporting people and supplies down the Mackenzie and into the Arctic during the summer shipping season.

http://www.nauticapedia.ca/Gallery/Arctic_Barges.php

https://www.beaufortrea.ca/wp-content/u ... -20121.pdf

http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic20-4-222.pdf
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 06 Oct 2018, 22:38:44

Newf, he must be in his 20's or it would be obvious to him he was spouting nonsense. Makes no sense to argue with an idiot.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Cog » Sun 07 Oct 2018, 03:00:44

It also makes no sense you use ad hominems at someone who is adding information to the discussion Cid. I suppose information outside your construct upset you.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 07 Oct 2018, 06:43:48

jawagord wrote:
Newfie wrote:OK show me your proof of that. I’ll listen. I want to see 50 years of barges running to Cambridge. I could not find it.

Bur also remember there are over a hundred years of exploration before anyone made it across the NS passage, and the first was MC Clure, who took over 2 years, and he walked.


There is lots of history of shipping in the Arctic Newfie, nothing new about it, how do you think Franklins ships got there? Barges were supporting Arctic oil and mining in the 60’s and 70’s, transporting people and supplies down the Mackenzie and into the Arctic during the summer shipping season.

http://www.nauticapedia.ca/Gallery/Arctic_Barges.php

https://www.beaufortrea.ca/wp-content/u ... -20121.pdf

http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic20-4-222.pdf


None of that supports your assertion that the artic is not melting. Or did I missunderstand you?

Franklins ships froze in and did not leave. He and all his men died.
The McKenzie is not Cambridge, it is 1,000km away. It empties into but is not the Arctic Ocean.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 07 Oct 2018, 09:49:46

Tangentially related

https://www.gov.nt.ca/sites/default/fil ... ture_0.pdf

All-Weather Road Infrastructure for Adapting to Climate Impacts
Significant regions of the NWT depend solely on seasonal winter road access. Climate change is greatly affecting the reliability of these winter roads, particularly at vulnerable ice crossings. Strategic infrastructure projects will mitigate impacts of climate change and provide safe, secure, and reliable surface transportation into the Sahtu region and the Slave Geological Province (SGP).
Projected Cost: $727 million
Replacement of winter roads with all-weather highways supports the Government of the Northwest Territories’ (GNWT) efforts to adapt to the impacts of climate change
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby jawagord » Sun 07 Oct 2018, 12:29:04

Newfie wrote:
jawagord wrote:
Newfie wrote:OK show me your proof of that. I’ll listen. I want to see 50 years of barges running to Cambridge. I could not find it.

Bur also remember there are over a hundred years of exploration before anyone made it across the NS passage, and the first was MC Clure, who took over 2 years, and he walked.


There is lots of history of shipping in the Arctic Newfie, nothing new about it, how do you think Franklins ships got there? Barges were supporting Arctic oil and mining in the 60’s and 70’s, transporting people and supplies down the Mackenzie and into the Arctic during the summer shipping season.

http://www.nauticapedia.ca/Gallery/Arctic_Barges.php

https://www.beaufortrea.ca/wp-content/u ... -20121.pdf

http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic20-4-222.pdf


None of that supports your assertion that the artic is not melting. Or did I missunderstand you?

Franklins ships froze in and did not leave. He and all his men died.
The McKenzie is not Cambridge, it is 1,000km away. It empties into but is not the Arctic Ocean.

If you read what I said, instead of twisting and changing the discussion it would be a lot easier to come the an understanding. I'll repeat, I said barges have been used in the Arctic for over 50 years and I gave you links to show that. The McKenzie empties into the Arctic. I did not say barges were operating everywhere in the Arctic or continuously everywhere in the Arctic, and for good reason, it isn't practical or profitable to do so in much of this huge sparsely populated area, but where and when it is they have and are being used. Contrary to your original assertion that barging is a recent adaptation due to climate change? Much of the Arctic ice melts every year and reforms every year, varying from 4million sq km at the end of summer to 12 million sq km at the end of winter. The Arctic ice floats and moves around, its not grounded, it's why ships can sail in some parts of the Arctic some years and other parts other years, it's why the shipping is seasonal. There's certainly more Arctic shipping now but much of that is due to vastly improved shipping technology, and area knowledge and a lot less because there's marginally less ice than 40 years ago.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 07 Oct 2018, 13:34:06

Soooo, since the name of the thread is "Arctic Sea Ice," you are admitting that your post was off topic.

Thanks for that. I'll try to remember to ignore your off topic comments in the future. :)
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 07 Oct 2018, 19:35:25

It wasn’t off topic it was grossly miss stating a situation to fit his world view.

He’s been called on it and now is squirming.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sun 07 Oct 2018, 20:22:05

jawagord,

Just to be clear, are you saying that Arctic sea ice is showing no significant trend in extent, area or volume, over the last few decades?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 08 Oct 2018, 05:26:10

Yeah, the extent and concentration losses over the last 15 years or so have been extreme. Just looking at a simple graph should be enough to end any argument. The orange line on this graph shows where the ice used to be very recently.

https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_concentration_hires.png
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 20:41:52

Something...odd...seems to be happening wrt the (non-) re-freeze of the Central Arctic Basin (black line) this year:



Image
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 10:08:01

dohboi wrote:Something...odd...seems to be happening wrt the (non-) re-freeze of the Central Arctic Basin (black line) this year:



Image

I suspect some sort of equipment failure. Other sources have the fall weather very close to normal (meaning below freezing).
Or you could go with a full blown conspiracy theory and Have Michal Mann and friends manipulating the data. :-D :-D :-D
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby chilyb » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 12:45:37

vtsnowedin wrote:
dohboi wrote:Something...odd...seems to be happening wrt the (non-) re-freeze of the Central Arctic Basin (black line) this year:



Image

I suspect some sort of equipment failure. Other sources have the fall weather very close to normal (meaning below freezing).
Or you could go with a full blown conspiracy theory and Have Michal Mann and friends manipulating the data. :-D :-D :-D


I don't understand you post. Do you really think there is an "equipment failure" with the satellites that image sea ice extent? Or is this just a piss poor attempt at humor?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 15:03:44

Looking at some of the other Arctic related charts, it appears that there has been a period of unusually warm air flow that may be delaying the formation of sea ice.
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