Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 08 Oct 2018, 22:36:25

You are suggesting they are all being tuned to match temperatures


You are lying again. I said no such thing.

-----------------

This is pointless.

So lets change the subject....what is your opinion of the new report from the IPCC working group in Korea? They say it will be almost impossible to stop the earth from warming to over 1.5°C.

IPCC says limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will require drastic action....Humanity has a limited window in which it can hope to avoid the worst effects of climate change, according to climate report.

Do you disagree with the latest IPCC report? If so, why?

Cheers!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 21592
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 15:36:39

Do you disagree with the latest IPCC report? If so, why?


haven't gone through in detail but it appears to be completely unlike AR5 where there was a research section that dealt in detail with new advances in all the topics since AR4 and pointed to the vast majority of literature published to the point of acceptance for the report. This latest report appears to be mainly about policy and seems to be missing a large amount of new research. They also don't appear to address uncertainty in any meaningful manner. Great study for politicians who already have their mind made up.

Judith Curry likely hits the nail on the head:

Over land, we have already blown through the 1.5C threshold if measured since 1890.  Temperatures around 1820 were more than 2C cooler.  There has been a great deal natural variability in temperatures prior to 1975 when human caused global warming kicked in any meaningful way.
And the IPCC climate model projections ignore the bottom third of the ‘likely’ climate sensitivity values – 1.5 to 4.5 C -, with only the outlier Russian model having a value of ECS as low as 2.1 C.  Much of this problem goes away if ECS is actually 1.5 to 2 C.
And then there is the goldilocks issue.  Who would prefer the climate of the 18th or 19th century relative to the climate of the early 21st century?


https://judithcurry.com/2018/10/08/1-5-degrees/
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6170
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 04:19:18

rockdoc123 wrote:
Judith Curry wrote:Much of this problem goes away if ECS is actually 1.5 to 2 C.


Good grief, so if warming is slower (and not many climate scientists think so), much of the problem goes away? Which part goes away, Ms Curry? Does that mean there is a chance a future generation will have to deal with it, so you don't?


A scientist? No, I don't think so.
Last edited by Tanada on Sun 14 Oct 2018, 09:34:14, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quote
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2833
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 18 Oct 2018, 01:20:23

rockdoc123 wrote:
Judith Curry wrote:Much of this problem goes away if ECS is actually 1.5 to 2 C.


Good grief, so if warming is slower (and not many climate scientists think so), much of the problem goes away? Which part goes away, Ms Curry? Does that mean there is a chance a future generation will have to deal with it, so you don't?

A scientist? No, I don't think so.

[Sorry about the bad quote previously, this is to correct your correction, Tanada. There doesn't seem to be a way to edit the post]
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2833
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 18 Oct 2018, 09:20:06

Good grief, so if warming is slower (and not many climate scientists think so), much of the problem goes away? Which part goes away, Ms Curry? Does that mean there is a chance a future generation will have to deal with it, so you don't?

A scientist? No, I don't think so.


rather than blathering like a loon you should perhaps acquaint yourself with the various representative concentration pathways proposed by the IPCC years ago and still used. As a consequence of peak oil and gradual replacement of ICB's with EV's the input of man made emissions into the system is forecast to plateau at some point prior to 2100. The IPCC tends to look at its long-term forecasts out to 2100. Hence Curry's comments are based on the forecast to 2100...a doubling of CO2 at low ECS is essentially a non-event. As to her being a scientist....what kind of stupid comment is that? She has almost double the publications and awards of any of the go to warmists including Mann and Schmidt.

Posting your nonsense twice doesn't make it any more reasonable, though you are apparently proud of your misunderstanding. :roll:
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6170
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 22 Oct 2018, 00:43:29

rockdoc123 wrote:
Good grief, so if warming is slower (and not many climate scientists think so), much of the problem goes away? Which part goes away, Ms Curry? Does that mean there is a chance a future generation will have to deal with it, so you don't?

A scientist? No, I don't think so.


rather than blathering like a loon you should perhaps acquaint yourself with the various representative concentration pathways proposed by the IPCC years ago and still used. As a consequence of peak oil and gradual replacement of ICB's with EV's the input of man made emissions into the system is forecast to plateau at some point prior to 2100. The IPCC tends to look at its long-term forecasts out to 2100. Hence Curry's comments are based on the forecast to 2100...a doubling of CO2 at low ECS is essentially a non-event. As to her being a scientist....what kind of stupid comment is that? She has almost double the publications and awards of any of the go to warmists including Mann and Schmidt.

Posting your nonsense twice doesn't make it any more reasonable, though you are apparently proud of your misunderstanding. :roll:

No blathering involved; I'm just amazed that someone who thinks (though not proven) that ECS is towards the lower end of the estimates would think that most of the problem goes away if it is. She can see for herself that warming so far is having an impact (and most climate scientists think it's a serious impact) at only a 40% increase in CO2 forcing. Even if she really is convinced that a doubling of CO2 over pre-industrial (which now requires only another 40% increase on what it is now) might only increase temperature another 1C (though she puts a lot of emphasis on uncertainty, which can work both ways) then it's obvious there is a clear problem, not that "much of the problem goes away".

Just to reiterate, with a 40% increase already resulting in 1-1.2C rise (which is not yet all of the rise due to the CO2 already in the atmosphere), a low value for ECS is pretty much ruled out, though the odd contrarian climate scientist still clings to the hope that it is low. And, remarkably, government policies the world over seems to be based on these odd contrarians, rather than the consensus.
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2833
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 22 Oct 2018, 10:29:04

Just to reiterate, with a 40% increase already resulting in 1-1.2C rise (which is not yet all of the rise due to the CO2 already in the atmosphere), a low value for ECS is pretty much ruled out, though the odd contrarian climate scientist still clings to the hope that it is low.


I suggest you read something for a change. Your seat of the pants logic flies in the face of actual research that has been published recently. Scafeta and others have made the point that as time progresses the tendency has been for calculations of both TCS and ECS trend lowere. But maybe you should write to all of those scientists who have published their calculations showing low ECS and TCS and inform them how they just don't know what they are talking about. :roll:

Image
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6170
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Previous

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests