Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 08 Oct 2018, 21:59:49

Hey Short, why don't you pay up on that wager you lost to me?

Wager
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 4372
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 08 Oct 2018, 22:50:24

Hi Short :) Welcome back.
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27727
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby Rockoil » Mon 08 Oct 2018, 23:40:21

Hi Short, Good to see you back in the forum :-D and I am looking forward to read your new book next year.
Rockoil
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 4
Joined: Fri 17 Mar 2017, 22:14:02

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 01:12:44

marmico wrote:ETP=EROI=GIGO
ECoE=EROI=GIGO

A dart throwing simian is just as accurate as Timmie "Perfect Storm" Morgan's 2012 projections. OMG we are doomed. Timmie says that energy extraction was 97% energy efficient in 1990, 94% energy efficient in 2012 and will be 90% energy efficient in 2022. It's BS and it doesn't matter if you don't adjust for energy intensity. Is all your household lighting LED? Is your ride 20 miles per gallon (mpg) or 40 mpg?

https://www.tullettprebon.com/pressrele ... growth.pdf

It's pretty consistent how the doomers conveniently ignore real world facts like economics while claiming we're economically "doomed".

I just checked to be sure, and an LED 60 watt (incandescent) equivalent bulb uses about 7.5 watts of energy. Pretending like huge efficiency gains like this (roughly 8 fold more efficient) over time don't matter is patently absurd.

https://learn.eartheasy.com/guides/led- ... on-charts/

But I guess it sells books and gets Cassandras to subscribe to blogs. People need their hobbies.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5916
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 01:26:10

shortonoil wrote:Hi pstarr,
Long time no see. Here is a graph that I call the "Graph that Rules them All". It is, and has been world petroleum production that leads world GDP. With two primary producers, Venezuela and Iran, falling fast, we will undoubtedly hit Peak this year, or next. It looks like it is going to take at least an additional 3 to 4 mb/d to compensate. There are no other producers in the world who can make up that difference, and with no growth in production there will be no growth in GDP. The world's $237 trillion in debt will very rapidly become unserviceable.

Apparently you can never stop with the nonsense, no matter how ludicrous your predictions have been over time.

How's that MAP (Maximum Affordable Price) for oil doing? It was supposed to be $41ish for 2018. And here we are with WTI solidly holding above $75 in the fall of 2018 and the trend is solidly up (starting the year at about $60, and trending up for the whole year).

https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-cr ... aily-chart

But of course, we're supposedly headed to a MAP of $2ish by 2022, according to that oh, so wonderful paper that pretends price inflation doesn't exist to make your economic assumptions. Yeah, that's totally credible. :roll:

(Version 2 of your paper, dated March 1, 2015, page 38, chart labeled "Theoretical Max Price vs Year".)

Meanwhile, in the real world, global oil consumption and production continues to increase. And the move toward alternate green energy supplies continues to accelerate as a trend.

But yes, we should all listen to you because of your "brilliant" track record. 8)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5916
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby cephalotus » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 06:32:52

Outcast_Searcher wrote:But I guess it sells books and gets Cassandras to subscribe to blogs. People need their hobbies.


Solar PV and wind already have an EROEI of more than 20:1. Both produce electricity

Electric cars are 3 times more efficient than cars with ICE.
Residental heating with heat pumps is 3 times more efficient than heating with oil and gas.

It doesn't matter if EROEI of tar sands and that stuff falls below factor X. Most of this stuff has to be kept underground anyway, otherwise the world does not have an energy problem, but an overheating problem.

Image
cephalotus
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 564
Joined: Tue 18 Sep 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Germany

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 09:56:51

This is another graph that sort of grabs you! In 1960 1 barrel of oil supported $187 in GDP. By 2017 that had increased to $2,956 per barrel. By 2012 (the energy half way point; the point where oil could no longer support all of its own production without subsidizes) that relationship began to breakdown. An ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) of the data shows that the data from 1960 to 2012, and 2013 to 2017 are from different populations. The value of the dollar is no longer being set by its historic relationship to petroleum!

With the dollar no longer anchored to oil, the price of oil can go anywhere? Its price is being set by the number of dollars in circulation, rather than its value to the economy. That has already destroyed at least 10 EM economies over the last couple of years. The FED appears to be absolutely dedicated to repatriating those dollars back into the US. The FED is attempting to prevent a recession from setting in for the US that would destroy the dollar. A shortage of dollars will drive interest rates up, and collapse even more peripheral economies. The examples of Argentina, Turkey, Venezuela, and etc. is that hyperinflation is the ultimate outcome of that policy. Oil producers are on the high tide side of the ledger for now. Increasing price can keep them pumping until their own hyperinflation destroys their own economies, and their ability to produce oil. Venezuela is already facing that problem, and at their present rate of inflation of 1.6 million % per year, their oil industry will be gone by the end of next year. Nigeria, Indonesia, and India will probably be the next big dominoes to fall.

It now requires $3.7 trillion a year in subsidizes for the petroleum industry to keep production level. By 2025 that will be $8.5 trillion, or 15% of total world cash flow. Somewhere between now and then the dollar its self will collapse, and take the petroleum industry with it.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
Attachments
chart220jpg_Page1.jpg
EIA & World Bank data source
chart220jpg_Page1.jpg (46.2 KiB) Viewed 2489 times
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 5474
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 10:05:56

kublikhan wrote:Hey Short, why don't you pay up on that wager you lost to me?

Wager
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 4372
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby GHung » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 10:21:31

kublikhan wrote:
kublikhan wrote:Hey Short, why don't you pay up on that wager you lost to me?

Wager


What gambling activities does PayPal prohibit?
.......
Person-to-person betting –Includes individual wagering and wagering through betting exchanges.
https://www.paypal.com/us/smarthelp/art ... bit-faq915


Looks like you'll need to call Guido.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2590
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 10:44:55

"Yes Short, we look forward to your ongoing analysis. Do you see higher interest rates triggering a stockmarket collapse this year or next?"

From what I have read in the WSJ a lot of the BBB bond index is about ready to be downgraded to junk with a couple more rate hikes. The FED has to keep capital flows coming into the US to support their dollar, so I think we can expect to see a lot more rate hikes in the works. Every time in the past that HY got over loaded there has been a crash in the market. When its spread blows out, which it will, it sucks liquidity out of the equity market. The FED is scheduled to raise rates in December, so we might get a crash for Christmas. If Santa does show up this year, the March hike should do it. Ron Paul is calling for a 50% decline in the S&P. Looking at such junk as Face Book, and Tesla I wouldn't argue with him!
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 5474
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 10:59:11

GHung wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
kublikhan wrote:Hey Short, why don't you pay up on that wager you lost to me?

Wager


What gambling activities does PayPal prohibit?
.......
Person-to-person betting –Includes individual wagering and wagering through betting exchanges.
https://www.paypal.com/us/smarthelp/art ... bit-faq915


Looks like you'll need to call Guido.
This is the information age. There are a plethora of ways to settle a bet. Of course, that all depends on you being a person of integrity and not a welching loser.
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 4372
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 11:18:47

Sadly the world is filled with losers who welch and then pretend like nothing happened.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 15127
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 13:35:56

You bunch of losers can't even keep your bets straight. There was no bet with Kub, the bet was with Marmy. He never put up his money so there was no bet. But I suppose when there is only one poster, posting under 15 different names it probably gets confusing? Try using index cards since you never figured out how to use a database.

Of course, considering how many old farts are on this site it could be just a simple case of dementia?
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 5474
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 14:10:38

Hey loser, did you or did you not write this?

shortonoil wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
shortonoil wrote:"If you expect a demand dearth in 2017 that will push prices lower, it is a prediction."

There is a difference between a prediction, and a projection. A prediction comes from a generally held opinion. A projection is derived from calculations done on an established data base. This is a projection; the price will be lower in 2017 than it was in 2016. There is sixty years of data to back up that conclusion.

If anyone is brave enough I'll give 5 to 1 odds in favor of the projection. That still leaves a very good spread on my side. $250 limit. We can handle the wager through PayPal.
I'll take that wager. I'll even go up to your limit of $250. So the bet is:
If average 2016 price of oil is lower than average 2017, I win and you pay me $1250 via paypal.
If average 2016 price of oil is higher than average 2017, you win and I pay you $250 via paypal.
Is this correct?
Yearly average WTI as reported by the EIA to be specific. Agreed and you are on!
Short's bet he is trying to welch on
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 4372
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 09:09:27

Which is what Short and the Hills Group have been saying


"The world's crude reserve can be likened to a car battery. As time progresses the battery's internal irreversibilities increase due to entropy production, and we say the battery "gets weak". The internal resistance of the battery increases until the power production of the chemical processes of the battery can no longer overcome the resistance. We say the battery has "gone dead". Like the battery, the internal irreversibilities due to entropy production, of the world's crude oil production system are increasing. Higher viscosity, increasing well depth, and increasing water cut have the same effect as increasing resistance does in the battery.

All processes approach an equilibrium state with their environment. This is called the "dead state", and represents the point where no additional work can be extracted from the system's energy. It is the point where the system's internal irreversibilities overcome the system's energy. The car battery reached the "dead state" when it permanently went "dead". So also will the world's petroleum production system.
"


Hi Onlooker: what makes the situation critical, is that to begin with, we are dealing with a fairly rare mineral. There was originally only 5.3 times as much petroleum in the earth's crust as there was gold. 86.8 billion tonnes of gold to, at most, 466.7 billion tonnes of petroleum. It earns its name Black Gold. Compared to other minerals like copper it is extremely rare. There is 4,100 times as much copper buried in the earth's crust as there is petroleum. To add to the insanity the world is extracting petroleum 1.6 million times faster than it is gold! We seem to be obsessed with getting rid of the stuff, and we don't seem to be concerned in the least with pushing its available supply to the limit. We are presently extracting it at the rate of 4.94 billion tonnes a year, or at about 1% of all the liquid hydrocarbons originally deposited by nature into the planet's crust. We have been on this frantic escapade for 159 years. Considering that only about 40% of what was originally deposited can be used with our present economic structure, and technology, and we have already extracted almost half of the original, this mad frenzy will soon be coming to an end.

Basing our entire civilization on one precious, very limited commodity was definitely not the brightest move that humans have ever made. It is not surprising that the world's economy is folding up from Venezuela to South Africa. Once the $4 trillion a year in capital outflows from the emerging markets stops coming to the West, we will be seeing the Decline here as well. Keep and eye out for the book coming out in the spring. It will have suggestions on how one can mitigate the impact.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 5474
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 14:20:08

Hi Short, thanks for that nice summary and explanation. The Deniers do not seem to understand how precarious the situation is. I will include these two articles and the following excerpts that succinctly explain not only how unprofitable the whole Oil & Gas productiion endeavor is becoming but also about how it is becoming a losing propostion for any keen investors who realize that the climate impacts from greenhouse gas emissions are here to stay and bound to get worse especially if we continue extracting and burning FF. So, yes it is utterly insane now to in any way advocate for the FF industry and not see that financial, geologic and plain common sense factors will compel humanity to forgo continued FF use.
So, at this point even if humans chose not to disinvest from the FF industry, their use to society as a viable energy source will have ceased. Looking forward to reading your book Short, stay well.

It’s not looking good for the global fossil fuel industry. Although the world remains heavily dependent on oil, coal and natural gas — which today supply around 80 percent of our primary energy needs — the industry is rapidly crumbling.

This is not merely a temporary blip, but a symptom of a deeper, long-term process related to global capitalism’s escalating overconsumption of planetary resources and raw materials.

New scientific research shows that the growing crisis of profitability facing fossil fuel industries is part of an inevitable period of transition to a post-carbon era.

But ongoing denialism has led powerful vested interests to continue clinging blindly to their faith in fossil fuels, with increasingly devastating and unpredictable consequences for the environment.

The Carbon Tracker Initiative, which analyzes carbon investment risks, points out that over the next decade, fossil fuel companies risk wasting up to $2.2 trillion of investments in new projects that could turn out to be “uneconomic” in the face of international climate mitigation policies.

More and more fossil fuel industry shareholders are pressuring energy companies to stop investing in exploration for fear that new projects could become worthless due to climate risks.

While the Mainstream media continues to put out hype that technology will bring on abundant energy supplies for the foreseeable future, the global oil and gas industry is actually cannibalizing itself just to stay alive.   Increased finance costs, falling capital expenditures and the downgrade of oil reserves are the factors, like flesh-eating bacteria, that are decimating the once great oil and gas industry.

This is all due to the falling EROI – Energy Returned On Investment in oil and gas industry.  


https://truthout.org/articles/we-could- ... n-with-it/
 https://srsroccoreport.com/warning-the-global-oil-gas-industry-is-cannibalizing-itself-to-stay-alive/
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9965
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 14:38:29

Oh and for those here who say, oh but once Oil reaches a certain higher price, it will become profitable once again, remember oil is only useful if it can help the Economy not if it drags it down.
From the mainstream IEA "IEA: Expensive Energy Is Threatening Economic Growth"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... rowth.html
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9965
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 14:45:48

shortonoil wrote:I'll be coming out with a book in the spring: "LOSER: how I welch on my obligations." Although it is not likely that anyone on this board didn't already know how much of a loser I am, I just want to get all out there in black and white.
You're right, everyone already knows, loser.

shortonoil wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
shortonoil wrote:This is a projection; the price will be lower in 2017 than it was in 2016. There is sixty years of data to back up that conclusion. If anyone is brave enough I'll give 5 to 1 odds in favor of the projection. That still leaves a very good spread on my side. $250 limit. We can handle the wager through PayPal.
I'll take that wager. I'll even go up to your limit of $250. So the bet is:
If average 2016 price of oil is lower than average 2017, I win and you pay me $1250 via paypal.
If average 2016 price of oil is higher than average 2017, you win and I pay you $250 via paypal.
Is this correct?
Yearly average WTI as reported by the EIA to be specific. Agreed and you are on!
Loser
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 4372
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 15:54:23

"Loser" repeated insistently and childishly is not an arguement nor analysis of attached quote.

It is in violation of peakoil protocol and is ususually associated with stupido majora ignoramus, a very serious malignancy of the heart and mind. :shock:
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27727
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 16:01:03

Hi Short, thanks for that nice summary and explanation. The Deniers do not seem to understand how precarious the situation is.


The industry's economic state is worse than their books show. The world's petroleum industry is doing the same thing that the Saudi's did for 50 years. They are not backdating their reserves. They are selling oil, which is their primary asset, and not accounting for the declining value of those assets. Almost no one on the planet is replacing reserves with a drill bit. If it is being done, it is being done on Wall Street by buying out others. If they had to account for all the replacement costs of the reserves that they are pumping they would all be bankrupt! To compensate the society must consume its existing assets, aka cannibalization, to keep the oil pumping. Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey, South Africa, are all bite sized snacks for the industry. Wait until they get really hungry and start on China! We might get to find out if their hypersonic missiles are built any better than the made in China toaster that burned up the kitchen! The Deniers failed to include the homo sapiens in their calculations.

If we had had one ounce of sense as a species those reserves could have lasted for 529 years, rather than 159. The single minded obsession of accumulating wealth at any cost, was our downfall. There may be a way out for the time being, but if there is, are we going to use it wisely, or just piss it away again. This crash will be bad enough, that people might have the time to figure it out.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 5474
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

PreviousNext

Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests