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EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

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EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 03 Oct 2018, 05:48:07

Image
THESIS:

The real(important) reason behind the diesel car mobbing in the EU is not clean air.

https://www.fuelseurope.eu/wp-content/u ... FILE-1.pdf


It is a shortage of diesel=heating oil production capacity!

The major trade flows to and from the EU are a result of the gasoline/
diesel imbalance demand in Europe. As a consequence, significant excess
gasoline production capacity needs to be exported, while, to meet regional
demand for diesel and jet fuel, Europe became heavily reliant on other
countries for import, especially Russia, the Middle East & USA

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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 03 Oct 2018, 09:24:31

What heating oil shortage are you referring to?

The graph you posted shows supplies are substantially UP over the last 12 months and on page 15 of the PDF you linked to is a graph showing that EU heating oil demand has fallen by 37% over the period of 2006-2016, even though prices were pretty low in 2015-2016.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 03 Oct 2018, 13:13:45

T - I think part of the confusion is the distinction between diesel and heating oil. In fact, no where in the link is the term "heating oil". And the appear to use diesel only in the context as a motor fuel. In that regards the show "diesel" demand to have reached an all time high in their latest statistic. They do have stats on "gasoil" which as far as I know is actually diesel which has not been added the dye t show it has been taxed as a motor fuel. So like in the US heating oil = gasoil.

But there are times when it shows "diesel/gasoil" and says that "the EU is unable to meet regional demand". But that doesn't necessarily mean it can't meet "gasoil demand." But I found where Pratts reports that "Europe’s middle distillate deficit balloons to 1.6 mb/d by 2019". But then you have to take "middle distillates" = diesel and gasoil. Basically it sounds a if the EU can decide what it runs short of: motor diesel or home heating oil. Depends on what they don't dye and tax as motor fuel and what the want drivers to be short of. Or what they tax as motor fuel and leave some folks to suffer in the heart of winter.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 03 Oct 2018, 13:27:07

Oil fired heating systems have been in decline in Ireland for decades now, every year fewer new houses are having it installed and many others are replacing oil with gas. So there is no heating oil shortage on the horizon here, that's for sure.

Barring a catastrophic failure in the supply lines that is. The biggest issue here is that with the recent increases in oil prices, poorer households are going to struggle to afford to adequately heat their homes this winter.

If weather forecasts are correct, this year could have several days of extreme cold, something that is uncommon in Ireland.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 03 Oct 2018, 13:53:48

Donlan - That's the real danger to your poor families: if heat oil demand drops to low many of those distribution companies might close shop. Which means the remaining ones could charge what they wanted. Unless the govt institutes price controls which might put the remaining companies out of business. Which means no heating oil unless the govt supplies it. And where would it get it: it would take from your motor fuel supplies, maybe. Maybe causing a supply shortage/price hike there.

And what happens when all petroleum, including NG, runs short? Back to burning coal, maybe? Or might see a lot of wind turbines on the west coast, maybe? Lots of temporary fixes available. Not so much being done for the long term, eh?
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 03 Oct 2018, 15:38:18

The latest/greatest on Nantucket is heat pumps with ground source heat. This has become popular since the mainland power feed cut the price of electricity by 1/3rd. There appears to be a glut of heating oil, my 500 gallon tank was less than 1/4 empty after 12 months of thermostat at 50 degrees, plus about six weeks total domestic hot water consumption. A lot of island homes like mine are occupied a few weeks per year.

Backup heat in case of an oil shortage has long been on my mind, especially after we move to the island. My best idea so far is a medium wind generator, sized for 4 homes, all with heat pumps. (That would be me, the Brother-in-Law, my nephew, and my rental property.) My current oil burner would become the backup, with a full 500 gallons of oil, enough for a heating season with a severe Winter.

New England is not the EU, of course. But demand for heating oil - and prices - appear to be remaining around $3/gallon, delivered, for the last 5 years. (Retail price on Nantucket.)
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 03 Oct 2018, 15:47:39

@ Tanada

The EU has a diesel=heating oil production /demand gap.

The gap is filled with imports from Russia etc.

https://www.fuelseurope.eu/knowledge/ho ... imbalance/

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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 03 Oct 2018, 17:52:10

This would have been relevant, say, in the 70's when natural gas was becoming frighteningly expensive rather quickly.

But let's not pretend that 40+ years later, natural gas isn't highly efficient and available as an energy source to replace a "shortage" of heating oil -- IF that becomes necessary despite market pricing adjustments to adapt.

For the "zillionth" time -- some inconvenience or need to change/adapt is NOT an economic catastrophe, much less a sign of "doom" no matter how many times the usual suspects try to imply it is so.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 04 Oct 2018, 16:35:55

Yep, NG prices have been relatively low for a while. But that's thank entirely to the Marcellus Shale. It jumped from less than 7% to over 20% in a short period. But like all plays it will eventually tap out. Other plays may fill the gap to some degree. But it the long term NG reserves will eventually require higher prices. Five years? Ten years? Twenty years? Who knows.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 00:48:49

12 years ago we ditched oil heating for a ground heat exchange system. Given fluctuating heating oil and electricity prices, as I was paying for the system the estimated return time varied from 7 to 12 years, and in the end it ended as 8 years (so a 12.5% annual return on investment). Financially this was the best investment I have made in our house to reduce energy use.

We are living on an island, and gradually the larger entities (such as local supermarket, health center, bank complex, and several groups of 'row houses') have switched to using ground heat exchange.

Also the company I used to work for had converted most of its property from oil heating to ground heat exchange (I am not sure if they finished the process as my job was outsourced and I live about 500 km from their location, as an early pioneer in tele-commuting [since 1994]).

All in all from this experience from an EU country I would expect the demand for heating oil to be sinking, so if there is a shortage it is likely from the supply side.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 01:25:24

The question is:

Are there enough free gasoil barrel+tanker in/on the market to meet demand in TIME physikally?

@ Edwin
Heat pumps are good but only with CO2 neutral electricity.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 10:39:03

M_B_S - I recall several winters ago my Yankee cousins were freezing their butts off as they ran out of propane. There was no shortage of propane in the market place. What they were short of was tanker trucks to make home deliveries. Folks had let their home tanks run low thinking they had enough to get thru the remaining winter. A late and very cold snap proved that assumption to be very wrong.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 12:16:32

No natural gas on Nantucket, aside from propane tanks. Heating oil, for all of its old-fashioned nature, is still the fuel of choice in many new home builds, as the cost is lower. I believe that ground source heat pumps will be more popular, going forward, with the new underwater power feed from the mainland.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby GHung » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 13:13:35

KaiserJeep wrote:No natural gas on Nantucket, aside from propane tanks. Heating oil, for all of its old-fashioned nature, is still the fuel of choice in many new home builds, as the cost is lower. I believe that ground source heat pumps will be more popular, going forward, with the new underwater power feed from the mainland.


One major difference is that propane can be stored almost indefinitely as long as the exterior of the tank is maintained. Fuel oil begins to degrade fairly quickly and, even if stabilized, is good for 1-2 years before it is rough on boilers, etc. Not really suited to long-term emergency storage.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 14:15:25

Right you are, and this is a long recognized problem on Nantucket, where the heating oil often remains in the tank for years in vacation homes. My own system utilizes a porcelanized tank to inhibit rust, a small argon canister that fills the tank as oil is consumed (reduces oxidation), a quality filter for sediments, and a high efficiency electronic regulated oil burner with an exhaust oxygen sensor that burns a wide range of oil viscosities on the surface of a nickel-steel ball. During my recent visit, we consumed about 30-odd gallons of fuel from a 500-gallon tank (presently 3/4 full) that is 4+ years old, no issues at all. The heating oil has a stability enhancer as delivered and there is a sample withdrawn annually from the bottom of the tank to check for polymerization.

Records show that the in-laws filled the tank on average every 15 months. The new oil burner is about 5 years old, and provides both hot water baseboard heat and domestic hot water.
Last edited by KaiserJeep on Fri 05 Oct 2018, 14:31:18, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 14:28:09

EdwinSm wrote:All in all from this experience from an EU country I would expect the demand for heating oil to be sinking, so if there is a shortage it is likely from the supply side.

The EU is a big place. Pretending like one or two anecdotes should give you an accurate picture re the demand side is somewhere between silly and myopic. There is PLENTY of oil and oil based product like heating oil to be had -- at the right price.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 14:30:36

ROCKMAN wrote:M_B_S - I recall several winters ago my Yankee cousins were freezing their butts off as they ran out of propane. There was no shortage of propane in the market place. What they were short of was tanker trucks to make home deliveries. Folks had let their home tanks run low thinking they had enough to get thru the remaining winter. A late and very cold snap proved that assumption to be very wrong.

Irresponsible behavior by some clueless homeowners doesn't mean there is a heating oil shortage. Not even close.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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