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Diesel shortage?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 04 Oct 2018, 16:35:55

Yep, NG prices have been relatively low for a while. But that's thank entirely to the Marcellus Shale. It jumped from less than 7% to over 20% in a short period. But like all plays it will eventually tap out. Other plays may fill the gap to some degree. But it the long term NG reserves will eventually require higher prices. Five years? Ten years? Twenty years? Who knows.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 00:48:49

12 years ago we ditched oil heating for a ground heat exchange system. Given fluctuating heating oil and electricity prices, as I was paying for the system the estimated return time varied from 7 to 12 years, and in the end it ended as 8 years (so a 12.5% annual return on investment). Financially this was the best investment I have made in our house to reduce energy use.

We are living on an island, and gradually the larger entities (such as local supermarket, health center, bank complex, and several groups of 'row houses') have switched to using ground heat exchange.

Also the company I used to work for had converted most of its property from oil heating to ground heat exchange (I am not sure if they finished the process as my job was outsourced and I live about 500 km from their location, as an early pioneer in tele-commuting [since 1994]).

All in all from this experience from an EU country I would expect the demand for heating oil to be sinking, so if there is a shortage it is likely from the supply side.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 01:25:24

The question is:

Are there enough free gasoil barrel+tanker in/on the market to meet demand in TIME physikally?

@ Edwin
Heat pumps are good but only with CO2 neutral electricity.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 10:39:03

M_B_S - I recall several winters ago my Yankee cousins were freezing their butts off as they ran out of propane. There was no shortage of propane in the market place. What they were short of was tanker trucks to make home deliveries. Folks had let their home tanks run low thinking they had enough to get thru the remaining winter. A late and very cold snap proved that assumption to be very wrong.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 12:16:32

No natural gas on Nantucket, aside from propane tanks. Heating oil, for all of its old-fashioned nature, is still the fuel of choice in many new home builds, as the cost is lower. I believe that ground source heat pumps will be more popular, going forward, with the new underwater power feed from the mainland.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby GHung » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 13:13:35

KaiserJeep wrote:No natural gas on Nantucket, aside from propane tanks. Heating oil, for all of its old-fashioned nature, is still the fuel of choice in many new home builds, as the cost is lower. I believe that ground source heat pumps will be more popular, going forward, with the new underwater power feed from the mainland.


One major difference is that propane can be stored almost indefinitely as long as the exterior of the tank is maintained. Fuel oil begins to degrade fairly quickly and, even if stabilized, is good for 1-2 years before it is rough on boilers, etc. Not really suited to long-term emergency storage.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 14:15:25

Right you are, and this is a long recognized problem on Nantucket, where the heating oil often remains in the tank for years in vacation homes. My own system utilizes a porcelanized tank to inhibit rust, a small argon canister that fills the tank as oil is consumed (reduces oxidation), a quality filter for sediments, and a high efficiency electronic regulated oil burner with an exhaust oxygen sensor that burns a wide range of oil viscosities on the surface of a nickel-steel ball. During my recent visit, we consumed about 30-odd gallons of fuel from a 500-gallon tank (presently 3/4 full) that is 4+ years old, no issues at all. The heating oil has a stability enhancer as delivered and there is a sample withdrawn annually from the bottom of the tank to check for polymerization.

Records show that the in-laws filled the tank on average every 15 months. The new oil burner is about 5 years old, and provides both hot water baseboard heat and domestic hot water.
Last edited by KaiserJeep on Fri 05 Oct 2018, 14:31:18, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 14:28:09

EdwinSm wrote:All in all from this experience from an EU country I would expect the demand for heating oil to be sinking, so if there is a shortage it is likely from the supply side.

The EU is a big place. Pretending like one or two anecdotes should give you an accurate picture re the demand side is somewhere between silly and myopic. There is PLENTY of oil and oil based product like heating oil to be had -- at the right price.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EU: Diesel = Heating Oil shortage !

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 14:30:36

ROCKMAN wrote:M_B_S - I recall several winters ago my Yankee cousins were freezing their butts off as they ran out of propane. There was no shortage of propane in the market place. What they were short of was tanker trucks to make home deliveries. Folks had let their home tanks run low thinking they had enough to get thru the remaining winter. A late and very cold snap proved that assumption to be very wrong.

Irresponsible behavior by some clueless homeowners doesn't mean there is a heating oil shortage. Not even close.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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