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Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 06:46:17

So many folks experience this amazing sense of liberation when everything they own disappears due to natural events whether wind, flood, fire or earthquakes. You never really understand how burdened you are by all your stuff until suddenly its all gone.

I just wanted to offer this perspective as we contemplate all the folks suffering from loss.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 08:11:37

Ibon wrote:So many folks experience this amazing sense of liberation when everything they own disappears due to natural events whether wind, flood, fire or earthquakes. You never really understand how burdened you are by all your stuff until suddenly its all gone.

I just wanted to offer this perspective as wle contemplate all the folks suffering from loss.
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Yes, Ibon, totally agree. Materialism becomes a superfluous endeavor bringing no lasting satisfaction but a constant craving. So not to minimize the anguish and losses of people in past disasters and this upcoming hurricane. But, I too have recognized that materialism is a futile pursuit. Hopefully, people in the Carolinas will come out of this in one piece and with a higher sense of purpose.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 09:00:46

Meanwhile, on the far side of the world:

Philippines evacuates thousands ahead of Super Typhoon Mangkhut

(CNN)The Philippines is evacuating thousands of people, deploying soldiers and positioning emergency provisions as Super Typhoon Mangkhut threatens more than four million people in the north of the country.
Mangkhut -- stronger than Hurricane Florence, which is currently lashing the US East Coast -- is expected to make landfall on the Philippines island of Luzon island early on Saturday. Current wind speeds are up to 285 kilometers per hour (180 mph). .....

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/14/asia/typ ... index.html


Landfall as a Cat 5 expected about 2PM EST.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 12:05:44

GHung wrote:Meanwhile, on the far side of the world:

Philippines evacuates thousands ahead of Super Typhoon Mangkhut

(CNN)The Philippines is evacuating thousands of people, deploying soldiers and positioning emergency provisions as Super Typhoon Mangkhut threatens more than four million people in the north of the country.
Mangkhut -- stronger than Hurricane Florence, which is currently lashing the US East Coast -- is expected to make landfall on the Philippines island of Luzon island early on Saturday. Current wind speeds are up to 285 kilometers per hour (180 mph). .....

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/14/asia/typ ... index.html


Landfall as a Cat 5 expected about 2PM EST.


My daughter is currently in norther Luzon, the northern island of the Philippines. She headed up to the mountains yesterday to Baguio to escape the flooding. This is a monster storm. I hope she made the right choice. Major landslides in the mountains can block the roads for an extended time. I hope she is prepared to be up there awhile.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 12:37:35

The media, advertisers and the weather service (all in pattern-behavior instinctual collusion) ginned up a real monster.

Hurricane Florence could become a Category 5 monster before reaching Carolinas

They want themselves and you to believe it was in your best interests. So you would reliably perform your appropriate fearful behavior and buy lots of home improvements.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 12:42:37

pstarr wrote:The media, advertisers and the weather service (all in pattern-behavior instinctual collusion) ginned up a real monster.

Hurricane Florence could become a Category 5 monster before reaching Carolinas

They want themselves and you to believe it was in your best interests. So you would reliably perform your appropriate fearful behavior and buy lots of home improvements.

And of course stay tuned, boost ratings and advertiser revenue. By the way, we should keep track of Mangkhut has just recently Yolanda Typhoon was up there as one of the strongest ever. Looks like Mangkhut could be as well.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 13:13:11

Well as the jet stream has slowed. The atmosphere has 7%+ more water vapour and the Hurricane will probably l 'stall out' and move so much slower out of the area , I think we can say that a major flooding event is in the works for the Carolinas.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 13:55:47

Hoping the best for your daughter Ibon. Sometimes it’s hard to know what is best.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 14:01:32

Yes, wishing the best for Ibon's sister, and for all of those in the paths of these monsters.

"...many folks experience this amazing sense of liberation when everything they own disappears due to natural events..." And, in spite of the more publicized 'looting' (also known as 'resourceful use of scarce resources' when white people are doing it :-D ), there is also a great tendency for people to cooperate and help each other often in heroic ways during crises. There's a whole book on this phenomenon
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 16:06:33

Ibon's daughter looks to be 100+ miles to the left of the storm track. Probably a good call.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 16:32:53

914flo.jpg
914flo.jpg (74.74 KiB) Viewed 1032 times
At a Glance
Florence is expected to crawl near or along the coast of the Carolinas into Saturday.This will produce catastrophic flash flooding and major river flooding.Life-threatening storm surge has already occurred in eastern North Carolina.Tropical storm and storm surge warnings have been issued.Florence's remnant will linger in parts of the East into early next week.


https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... -southeast
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 16:48:06

Current NWS Active Base Reflectivity Composite Radar loop on Flo (Wilmington, NC):

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 1&loop=yes

Click "AutoUpdate" to on, below image, to stay current. Updates about every 10 minutes.
Last edited by GHung on Fri 14 Sep 2018, 16:54:06, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 16:53:52

My friends boat, their home, is just under the “M” in Wilmington. They are in PA.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 16:57:20

Newfie wrote:My friends boat, their home, is just under the “M” in Wilmington. They are in PA.


Found it. Not a scratch:

Image
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 17:37:42

The world's strongest storm this year, Super Typhoon Mangkhut, is blasting the northern coast of the Philippines with strong winds and heavy rain.

More than four million people are directly in the path of the storm, which has winds of 205km/h (130 mph) and gusts reaching up to 285 km/h.

More than 9,000 people have been evacuated to temporary shelters.

Officials have warned of storm surges of up to 6m (20ft) and "very heavy damage" to vulnerable structures.


Where is Typhoon Mangkhut hitting?

It made landfall at Baggao, in the north-east of the country, at about 01:40 local time on Saturday (17:40 GMT on Friday)

The storm - known locally as Ompong - knocked over power lines and broke windows, Reuters news agency reports.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45517803
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 21:50:03

My daughter is reporting from Baguio (not the same as Baggao) ....bands of heavy rain, no real strong winds, the eye of Mangkut has already past Northern Luzon and the hurricane is back over the ocean heading toward the northwest.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 22:40:24

Thanks for the update, Ibon...and thank goodness!
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 15 Sep 2018, 04:20:39

Yes Ibon, glad everything went well for your family
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 15 Sep 2018, 05:07:45

Ahmen Ibon.

Just heard from my friends in NC, sounds like the marina made it through. Apparently the docks came within inches of floating off, 11+ feet of piling out of the water normally. Sounds like someone rode out the storm at the marina. They are hopeful the boat is OK. They will have to wait for roads around New Bern to reappear before heading down.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Cog » Sat 15 Sep 2018, 06:01:53

Weather guys can't model one hurricane correctly, but I'm supposed to believe that climatologists can model an entire planet with any degree of certainty.
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