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THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sat 25 Aug 2018, 12:00:44

I am somewhat surprised at the low injection rate.

At the production end, There is a ton of gas coming out of the Permian, SCOOP/STACK, Ap Basin.
Even the Bakken is maxxed out in their gas capture.

And yet, future contract pricing remains very low.

Should be interesting to see how this plays out in the coming months.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 11 Sep 2018, 16:33:19

The United States exported more natural gas than it imported in 2017, marking the first time since 1957 that the United States has been a net natural gas exporter. The transition to net exporter occurred as natural gas production in the United States continued to grow, reducing pipeline imports from Canada and increasing exports, both by pipeline and as liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Natural gas production in the United States increased significantly over the past decade. The United States surpassed Russia in 2009 as the world’s largest natural gas producer as shale gas production drove overall increases in natural gas production.

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As the United States has produced more natural gas, particularly from the Appalachia region, pipeline imports from Canada have decreased. As new pipeline capacity comes online in the region, more natural gas can be delivered to regions in the Midwest and Northeast, displacing Canadian imports and increasing U.S. pipeline exports to Canada.

U.S. natural gas pipeline capacity into Mexico has also increased over the past few years, driven by growth in demand for natural gas from Mexico’s power sector and favorable prices compared with natural gas supplied by LNG shipments. U.S.-Mexico natural gas pipeline capacity is currently 11.2 Bcf/d, with another 3.2 Bcf/d of capacity scheduled to be added later in 2018. Pipeline exports to Mexico have grown along with pipeline capacity, more than doubling since 2014.
The United States exported more natural gas than it imported in 2017

U.S. Natural Gas Net Imports
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Wed 12 Sep 2018, 11:27:34

That's interesting but nowhere near the volume of exports that would satisfy EU demand for imports.

125 billion cubic feet = 3.54 billion cubic meters.

The EU imports 170 billion cubic meters from Russia and Algeria. Anyone expecting some sort of secular growth in US gas exports is dreaming in technicolor. US tight gas reserves are grossly overblown:

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles ... gs.nWg1_iQ

The usual hype to get investor sucker money. Naturally US shyster politicians are running around making absurd promises and engaging in economic sabotage to grab the EU market. Time for the EU to grow a brain.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 12 Sep 2018, 13:41:12

That's interesting but nowhere near the volume of exports that would satisfy EU demand for imports.

125 billion cubic feet = 3.54 billion cubic meters.

The EU imports 170 billion cubic meters from Russia and Algeria. Anyone expecting some sort of secular growth in US gas exports is dreaming in technicolor. US tight gas reserves are grossly overblown:


The US doesn't have to totally replace all the gas from Russia and Algeria, all it has to do is be able to sell into the EU market at a rate which is lower than current gas spot prices in winter months. Russian gas has sold at a premium during European winters (above $10/MMbtu before 2015) and overall natural gas prices in the EU rose to $7/MMbtu in May of 2018 which is about a $4/MMbtu bonus on current US prices. If the full in price for LNG and transport can be maintained below that $4/MMbtu premium then the US should be successful at making further inroads to EU gas markets. And the EU is not the only market for US LNG or natural gas. They currently ship both natural gas and LNG into Mexico and the demand picture in MX suggests that could be increased. South Korea is also a destination. There are global limits to LNG sales based on location and capacity of re-gas facitlities but that is also changing. There is also the benefit of lower supply available in the US due to export which should see upward pressure on US natural gas prices. Suggesting there won't be an increase in US natural gas exports whether it be by pipeline into MX or Eastern Canada or by LNG shipments shows some serious misunderstanding of the reserves available and the markets.

US tight gas reserves are grossly overblown:


OH, please, quoting Bill Powers on natural gas reserves? He has no technical background in the subject matter and has made a number of predictions regarding the unconventional gas picture falling apart in the past that were completely wrong:

IN 2010 Powers said this about Texas production:

The Lone Star state is country’s largest natural gas producer by a factor of three. Despite laying claim to a portion of the Haynesville shale play and the rapidly growing Eagle Ford shale play, Texas natural gas production is coming unglued. According to the Texas Railroad Commission, natural gas production in Texas dropped 13.45% (over 3 billion cubic feet per day) between January 2009 and January 2010 and preliminary data on more recent months indicates production declines have continued. The study that I have done indicates that production from the country’s largest producer will continue to drop for at least the next two years. As goes Texas production, so goes North American production (production from the State is 50% larger than production from all of Canada).


As it turns out he was completely wrong….from 2010 to 2012 total gas production in TX increased by 9%, but that was at the same time unassociated gas from conventional plays decreased by 15% and associated gas production from conventional oil plays remained more or less the same, meaning production of gas from unconventional sources increased by 28% in the 2 year period where Powers predicted it would fall apart.

In October of 2009 Powers said:

“As an aside, in December 2007, I was at an industry conference in a very snowy Pittsburgh where I listened to a representative of Range Resources discuss how his company was fully committed to the Marcellus and was putting the full resources of the company into its development. Given all of the company’s efforts and money put into the Marcellus and their continuous promotion of the play, I find it very odd that Range Resources has not been able to achieve more than 80 million cubic feet per day (mmcf/d) of production two years later. Therefore, based on the slow ramp up of production from the Marcellus, I expect the play to be producing approximately 500 mmcf/d in June 2011.”


And in actual fact what happened was that by June 2011 the Marcellus was producing at 4703 Mmcf/d or nine times what Powers predicted, and Range Resources who Powers mocks in his article was up at 1000 Mmcf/d by 2014.

In January of 2010 Powers stated:

“I came to the conclusion that we are headed for a severe supply deficit after I examined the production profiles of the major conventional and unconventional fields in the US and Canada. By June of 2011, only 19 months from now, we are on pace to suffer a reduction in US gas supply of approximately 8.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) – approximately 13% of US supply.”


But rather than a reduction in supply of 13% production was actually up by 8% in June of 2011, which means Powers prediction was not only in the wrong direction but off by 21%

It is no wonder he hangs out with Art Berman another one of the "it is all going to fall apart....please buy my newsletter" crowd. At least Berman has some technical background, although he never seems to use it in a critical manner.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 12 Sep 2018, 19:10:02

Doc - Always amazes me how some folks will argue tooth and nail that some incompetent's analysis is correct while doing no fact checking. Fact checking easily done by a few clicks on the net.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 12 Sep 2018, 19:58:52

" ... fact checking ... few clicks on the internet".

C'mon guys, give ol' dis a break. That article - from 2012, no less - actually made me laugh out loud.

The doomers on this site seem to have picked right up where Mr. Shorty left off, namely posting the most preposterous data and pretending it is reality.

It truly is amusing in some odd tragicomic way.
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Re: Natural Gas Aw Chits

Unread postby GHung » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 18:03:58

WHOOPS! Too much pressure:

Gas explosions, fires reported in Massachusetts cities

Nearly 40 homes and businesses in three Massachusetts towns on Thursday suffered explosions or fires that may have resulted from an issue with gas service, officials said.
Suspected explosions have set structures on fire across dozens of blocks and forced evacuations in Lawrence, Andover and North Andover, Massachusetts State Police said....

...Lawrence Mayor Dan Rivera estimated there are between 20 and 25 fires across the city, according to CNN affiliate WCVB.
"Incidents are across a wide swath of dozens of blocks across Lawrence and North Andover," state police said via Twitter.
Residents of the towns of Lawrence, North Andover and Andover who have service from Columbia Gas "should evacuate their homes immediately," state police said.
Gas lines were being depressurized by the company.
The state police some neighborhoods were evacuated because of gas odors.
There was no immediate information available about the extent of the damage.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/13/us/massa ... index.html


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Natural Gas Explosions in Massachusetts

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 18:39:58

Gas Explosions, Fires Reported in Massachusetts Cities

Nearly 40 homes and businesses in three Massachusetts towns on Thursday suffered explosions or fires that may have resulted from an issue with gas service, officials said.

Suspected explosions have set structures on fire across dozens of blocks and forced evacuations in Lawrence, Andover and North Andover, Massachusetts State Police said.

Residents and workers in three Merrimack Valley communities are being urged by state police to evacuate any buildings or homes with Columbia Gas service after as many as 50 fires and explosions were reported across the region Thursday afternoon.

"Residents in the affected towns of Lawrence/North Andover/Andover who have gas service from Columbia Gas should evacuate their homes immediately if they have not already done so," state police tweeted.

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Lawrence Mayor Dan Rivera estimated there are between 20 and 25 fires across the city, according to CNN affiliate WCVB.

"Incidents are across a wide swath of dozens of blocks across Lawrence and North Andover," state police said via Twitter.

State emergency management officials say that "possible gas line over-pressurization" could be the source of the explosions.

Not saying this is the cause, but this is what an infrastructure cyber attack would look like.

LIVE: Thousands evacuating after numerous explosions, fires break out near Boston

The gas company said it is working to stabilize the gas pressure issue, but it will take some time.

State police told Columbia Gas customers in Lawrence, Andover and North Andover to evacuate. There are an estimated 51,000 Columbia Gas customers in the area. At least two injuries have been reported.
... Joseph Solomon, the police chief in nearby Methuen who responded to Lawrence to help, said there are so many fires "you can't even see the sky."

North Andover Town Manager Andrew Mayor said there were many commercial properties affected across the city, with alarms going off in several buildings.

The Columbia Gas company had announced earlier Thursday that it would be upgrading gas lines in neighborhoods across the state, including the area where the explosions happened.

Town officials in Andover are advising all residents and businesses to evacuate and to shut off their gas, if they know how to safely.

In neighboring North Andover, town Selectman Phil Decologero said that his entire neighborhood had gathered in the street, afraid to enter homes.

Entire neighborhoods were being evacuated in Lawrence. City Councilor Marc Laplante said authorities were shutting off electric power and urging residents in the Colonial Heights neighborhood to head to Parthum elementary and middle schools.

"People need to get out of this area safely, and it's really difficult because the traffic right now is horrendous," he said.
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Re: Natural Gas Explosions in Massachusetts

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 19:40:00

Andover Fire-Rescue Department struck a 10-alarm response at 5:01 p.m., its maximum traditional fire response. That directed 20 fire engines and 10 fire ladder trucks to the Town of Andover plus the town’s entire fire department.

However, a lot of those resources were diverted by concurrent 10-alarm situations in Lawrence and North Andover.

Fire Chief Michael Mansfield requested, through the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency, two additional fire task forces to respond to Andover. This sent an additional 20 engines and ladder trucks total to Andover. Chief Mansfield also requested an ambulance task force, sending 10 ambulances to Andover.

National Grid has announced it will cut off electricity in Andover, North Andover and Lawrence

The Columbia Gas company had announced earlier Thursday that it would be upgrading gas lines in neighborhoods across the state, including the area where the explosions happened. It was not clear whether work was happening there.

The three communities house more than 146,000 residents about 26 miles north of Boston, near the New Hampshire border.
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Re: Natural Gas Aw Chits

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 21:08:44

GHung wrote:WHOOPS! Too much pressure:

Gas explosions, fires reported in Massachusetts cities


Just another example of why I believe proper infrastructure repair and maintenance and diligence re safety is a LOT more important than most people seem to assume, i.e. out if sight, out of mind.

And I know it isn't free, but having your home become a firestorm isn't exactly a desirable outcome.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Natural Gas Developments

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 07:16:44

These problems are all over the local news here in Taxachusetts. The gas company decided to "upgrade" the mains to tolerate higher pressures. Existing pressure regulators, many of which were decades old but still functional at the original and lower gas main pressure, proved to not function at the new and much higher main pressure, which to be fair was near the upper limit for these regulators when they were new. This in turn allowed the higher gas main pressures to overpressure the smaller distribution piping, and customer homes that had gas meters with integral pressure regulation (i.e. almost all commercial and residential customers) experienced failures that allowed the higher pressures to reach gas appliances like stoves and furnaces and water heaters.
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Re: Natural Gas Developments

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 10:56:30

KaiserJeep wrote:These problems are all over the local news here in Taxachusetts. The gas company decided to "upgrade" the mains to tolerate higher pressures. Existing pressure regulators, many of which were decades old but still functional at the original and lower gas main pressure, proved to not function at the new and much higher main pressure, which to be fair was near the upper limit for these regulators when they were new. This in turn allowed the higher gas main pressures to overpressure the smaller distribution piping, and customer homes that had gas meters with integral pressure regulation (i.e. almost all commercial and residential customers) experienced failures that allowed the higher pressures to reach gas appliances like stoves and furnaces and water heaters.

But I thought blue states, with all their high taxes, massive regulation, "fairness", and caring about the little guy made such nonsense absolutely impossible! :roll:

To hear the way the NYT and CNBC tell it, such issues are all caused by the evil GOP and their hatred of regulations (which the left loves to pass, but not ensure are enforced).

...

For the Cassandras, if this kind of thing is common, given how dangerous and stupid it is, THIS is a bigger sign of collapse in a first world country than many of the things you like to moan about -- assuming it's allowed to persist by do-nothing politicians.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Natural Gas Developments

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 13:18:18

Outcast - Time will tell but I suspect the incidence has nothing to do with regulation. The LDS (Local Distribution System) greatly exceeded the pressure designed for household systems. That's not a regulatory issue...it's a mechanical issue. Why such high pressures reached those homes remains to be explained but it surely is a break down in the LDS specifications.

I imagine there are a bunch of lawyers smacking their lips: those will be no contest lawsuits.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 13:45:03

coffee - The dark side of me actually looks forward to such posts: comic relief. Just like the posts trying to use the gradually inundating lands of south Louisiana as proof of CC caused global warming and sea level rise. Perhaps the worst area on the planet to try to do so. As I just posted elsewhere it just the deniers a free shot at CC.
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Re: Natural Gas Developments

Unread postby dissident » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 21:42:51

ROCKMAN wrote:Might be part of the solution for the EU escaping Russian NG. From

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/afric ... 3-article/

(Bloomberg) -- On a tropical island just off the coast of Nigeria, hundreds of engineers work around the clock to produce liquefied natural gas at a plant the size of Lower Manhattan. Operator Nigeria LNG Ltd. says it will decide later this year whether to invest more than $10 billion to boost capacity by 40 percent. That would allow the Bonny Island terminal -- an hour’s ferry ride from the oil hub of Port Harcourt -- to export as much as 66 million cubic meters (30 million tons) a year to markets in Europe and Asia.

NLNG’s shareholders -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Total SA, Eni SpA and state-controlled Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. -- must weigh the benefits of expanding their profitable venture against the threat of higher taxes, pipeline vandalism in the Niger River delta and volatile gas prices. Those concerns have already delayed the project first mooted in 2012. Any further interruptions will increase the risk that Africa’s biggest oil producer misses the global transition to cleaner fuels and a chance to reduce its stuttering economy’s reliance on crude.


Who is stopping the EU from shopping elsewhere? All you hater blowhards are so full of sh*t. If the EU wants higher priced fictional LNG supply over cheaper Russian piped gas they are free to do whatever they please. Does your local grocer make you buy his goods? This is the sort of BS logic you are spewing.

Apparently Germans have more IQ than Uncle Scam gives them credit for, even with Merkel Shmerkel at the helm and Uncle Scam's threats of stopping Nord Stream II are failing utterly. More blowhard bleating from shyster twerps who pretend they can supply the EU while they import vast amounts of natural gas themselves. The US imported 85 bcm/year in 2017 from Canada. Good luck replacing 150 bcm/year of EU consumption with 50% more expensive natural gas any time soon.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 21:45:48

ROCKMAN wrote:coffee - The dark side of me actually looks forward to such posts: comic relief. Just like the posts trying to use the gradually inundating lands of south Louisiana as proof of CC caused global warming and sea level rise. Perhaps the worst area on the planet to try to do so. As I just posted elsewhere it just the deniers a free shot at CC.


Some people don't take much to amuse.

Funny how the US imports 85 bcm/year from Canada. Hilarious.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 15 Sep 2018, 10:17:45

Funny how the US imports 85 bcm/year from Canada. Hilarious.


equally funny how you conveniently ignore the fact that since 2007 US natural gas imports have steadily declined and in 2017 natural gas exports were higher than natural gas imports. As well, the EIA predicts that over the next few years US natural gas production will outpace demand by 3 BCF/d and predict that the in-country demand/supply picture by 2040 would see a surplus of production of 22 BCF/d or roughly two and half times as much gas as currently imported from Canada. But lets not let facts get in the way of your chuckle fest. :roll:
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Re: Natural Gas Developments

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 15 Sep 2018, 10:48:11

Who is stopping the EU from shopping elsewhere? All you hater blowhards are so full of sh*t. If the EU wants higher priced fictional LNG supply over cheaper Russian piped gas they are free to do whatever they please. Does your local grocer make you buy his goods? This is the sort of BS logic you are spewing.


perhaps you should stick to a topic you know something about?

Winter gas prices in Europe in the years running up to 2014 were regularly above $10/Mcf, they fell when global oil prices collapsed but have recovered to around $7/Mcf which is more than double the price received in North America. Qatar can economically ship LNG for as low as $2/MCF meaning they could sell their gas in Europe for a premium and indeed they have been shipping LNG to re-gas terminals in the UK (which has seen high winter natural gas prices), Spain and Portugal. The issue is that there are currently few re-gas terminals in Europe as a whole and more than 70% of those are located in the UK, France and Spain none of which have pipeline access into eastern Europe. Although Poland has plans to build re-gas terminals in the future there are currently none that could provide natural gas into eastern Europe. And until such time as the planned natural gas export lines that will run through Turkey from the Middle East to supply natural gas into the southern European market much of Europe is stuck with the only supply coming from Russia. So although theoretically, countries like Poland could buy their gas from anyone, because they have no effective access to that gas they are stuck with their current supplier, Russia.
As to your analogy, the local grocer may not make you buy his goods but if he is the only grocery store within hundreds of miles then it is a fait accompli that you buy exclusively from him.
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Re: Natural Gas Developments

Unread postby KingM » Tue 18 Sep 2018, 11:17:06

ROCKMAN wrote: The LDS greatly exceeded the pressure designed for household systems.


I knew those darn Mormons were involved somehow.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 18 Sep 2018, 16:09:53

"Funny how the US imports 85 bcm/year from Canada. Hilarious." It really is when you watch folks who truly have little understanding of the details of the dynamics behind NG export and import situations. Especially local conditions which seem to run contrary to national trends. For instance consider how many here won't understand what I just explained. LOL.
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