Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby GASMON » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 04:18:16

A major problem with EV's (and hybrids) is cost when new. Also when a few years old many potential buyers will shy away due to the high cost of battery replacement etc. Perhaps battery rental is a solution - but this just adds to the initial / running cost.

Probably the same in the USA as the UK, just stand by any highway and observe the age of cars passing by. You will see many 5+ year old cars - probably just what the driver can afford (not mentioning running costs, tax, depreciation, fuel, insurance etc). Just the cost to buy the car. Over here in the UK secondhand diesel & petrol cars are dirt cheap - all makes. Depreciation is a real killer. Most folks here buy either new on PCP (personal contract plan - i.e leasing) or secondhand. Also we are being increasingly regulated (and priced) out of our diesel and petrol cars - good thing ? - yes for the environment but folks need transport.

We are lucky having good bus and local / inter city rail network where I live (a small town), and we use it a lot, but many folks even here in the UK aren't so lucky, and from what I read public transport in the USA is virtually non existent out of the larger cities. people need transportation.

I don't see many secondhand EV's for sale just yet - who will take the risk of buying one when the warranty has run out ? By the way many Teslas in the USA are coming to the end of their long battery & drivetrain warranty. It will be interesting to see residual / secondhand prices, reliability etc.

Gas
The truth is sometimes incorrect
User avatar
GASMON
Prognosticator
Prognosticator
 
Posts: 2489
Joined: Sat 29 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: England

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 05:36:05

asg70 wrote:
Newfie wrote:the energy density of a battery is far, far below that of liquid fuel.


This is a stale FUD talking point and it's tedious to have to keep dealing with it. It doesn't have to match density because the refueling paradigm is different. How many people visit gas stations daily? Well, that's what an EV does when it charges overnight. Only for long road-trips does charge-time become a factor, and that's not how people drive most of the time.


When fuel price go up sufficiently the situation will change, on that we agree. But for now short hops is how most people drive MOST of the time. And enough folks don’t want to give up the capability to take a long drive to make it an issue. This has been beat to death for decades in relationship to mass transit.

Theoretically a much cheaper mass transit system taking you cheaply to and from work should be a big hit. Even the most successful ones thak a long time to catch on, it’s not an over night transition. Initially folks have a car, moving to a train requires a change in habit. Selling the car is commitingnto a new lifestyle and they may loose money by selling the car without a trade in. But also there is the reliability factor. If the system goes down for even short periods, stranding folks (snow, maintenance) then folks revert to buying a car. Once with a car they are unlikely to shift back until their next car purchase. There are more reasons but these that have some pertinence to the argument come to mind.

Now if you have 2 cars, one BEV and one conventional, then it is less of a problem. But folks are unlikely that to prematurely trade a car just to change technology. And the average life span of a vehicle is now 11 years.

Think of it this way, you are approaching it logically, what do people NEED. Advertising approaches it emotionally, what do people WANT? And they do at want to spend a ton of money on a car that has limited range?

Musk did something smart to make Tesla sexy. But once they get tagged as unreliable then folks will remember that even if it is eventually fixed.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 06:09:03

Yes, essentially correct. But note also that I have taken exactly ONE road trip family vacation in the last decade. Even then, we booked a sleeper compartment on a train, and rented a car nearer to the area we wanted to drive through. This month we are renting a minivan and two toddler seats on an island that is 14 miles long and three and a half wide at the widest part, upon which you could drive the shortest range EV for weeks without bothering to recharge.

I would have rented a BEV by preference, but it was not an available option for me today. But it is a choice that makes more sense than an ICE vehicle on a island such as this one. Don't try to tell me it's not, almost every family has multiple vehicles, and this island is choked with them. Understanding this, my first EV purchase is likely to be an electric bicycle or tricycle, something that will allow me to select and fetch home a couple of bags of groceries without an extra 30 - 60 minute traffic delay in each direction. The place really needs traffic lights, but that would destroy the "charm".
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5298
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 06:15:22

Right, and you are an BEV enthusiast. You are an easy sell. Not a bad thing. It’s just you are not typical.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 08:14:37

Newfie, the whole island is not a typical environment for vehicles, either. The truck limit is 11 tons because of late 1600s cobblestones. Narrow little one way streets that are not parallel. No traffic lights. Gridlocked streets all Summer long. My guess: more fuel burned idling than travelling. These island residents are inconveniencing themselves, mostly out of habit, in a place where EVs make all kind of sense, and (if I had my way) new ICE vehicles would be banned.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5298
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 08:25:26

If I have a magic wand of government policy I would make half a dozen changes in anticipation of peak oil.

First off all cars starting with the next model year that have a gasoline engine would be required to be flex fuel systems (a lousy $250.00 upgrade on a $25,000.00 investment) as standard equipment. This would include straight conventional ICE cars and hybrids of all sorts.

Second all Hybrid vehicles would have plug in charge capability as standard equipment and be programmed to make full use of it. You don't need full BEV range to make plug in recharge sensible, but you do need the plug and the computer software to allow the use of the option.

Three as suggested earlier in the thread consumers get a full tax credit for installing home electrical upgrades. This covers solar panels, personal wind turbine, powerwall type battery systems, 40 amp 220v charging circuit, whatever else along these lines I have forgotten. Yes switching all of London or Washington D.C. to EV overnight would put a massive strain on the grid if we just threw 40 amp 220v circuit in every garage. However if you put other improvements in the same garage the grid impact is greatly reduced, say a powerwall and solar charging system. do that and the grid impact is massively reduced. Even just a power wall that charges itself during the low demand period of the 24 hour cycle and is able to transfer that energy to a BEV or two during their recharge cycle would greatly diminish grid impact. The entire cost would be in the form of tax offset for whatever taxes you paid in every year to the Federal Government until you had received the full amount. Not a lump sum gift in one year, but if the system cost you $20,000.00 and you paid in $14,000.00 in taxes you get that $14,000.00 back the first year and the second year you get the other $6,000.00. This kind of government policy could do wonders, back in the 1970's the drafty old farmhouse I grew up in built by my great grandfather got massive energy upgrades under the President Carter tax rebates. Foam insulation, all new wiring and that wasn't even a full bore refund program.

Four instead of piddling around the Federal Government would purchase consumer level hybrid vehicle models for all their car purchases of the same type of vehicle. At minimum I know Ford and Toyota have offered Hybrid SUV models and all the car companies offer passenger sedans. The Federal Government buys thousands, tens of thousands of vehicles for government facilities every year and auctions them off on a 3 or 5 year cycle for replacement. If the government specified they would be buying only hybrid, flex fuel capable, plug in capable vehicles from now on the manufacturers would make those minor changes in their consumer option packages to accommodate government purchases. Once the manufacturers have set up the assembly lines for that offering the same package to Joe6P is a no-brainer.

Five do the same kind of upgrades as Number 3 to all federal garages so that when those new government flex fuel PHEV show up the government can charge them without straining the grid excessively.

Six, once the Federal Government has instituted the first 5 encourage cities and states to do the same transition with their vehicle fleets by offering guidelines to receive federal grants. What I mean by this is, if State X, say Minnesotan, mirrors the federal upgrades for garages and vehicle fleets and makes the upgrades part of their regulations for all future purchases they get a one time federal grant for the equipment cost. No feather bedding contracts where MN gets to charge 10 times the cost that anyone else would have paid to get the same upgrade installed, but the state only has to pay installation costs, the federal grant covers the cost of the equipment to do the upgrade.

Those six steps could have been done basically any time in the last 25 years that the politicians of different flavors have been bemoaning climate issues and fuel cost issues. I honestly think those regulatory changes would be a huge step in the right direction, and sadly I do not expect any of those steps to be taken in the next 25 years for the same reasons they were not taken in the last 25 years.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 14871
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby GHung » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 09:42:44

Tanada wrote:If I have a magic wand of government policy I would make half a dozen changes in anticipation of peak oil.

First off all cars starting with the next model year that have a gasoline engine would be required to be flex fuel systems (a lousy $250.00 upgrade on a $25,000.00 investment) as standard equipment. This would include straight conventional ICE cars and hybrids of all sorts.

Second all Hybrid vehicles would have plug in charge capability as standard equipment and be programmed to make full use of it. You don't need full BEV range to make plug in recharge sensible, but you do need the plug and the computer software to allow the use of the option.

Three as suggested earlier in the thread consumers get a full tax credit for installing home electrical upgrades. This covers solar panels, personal wind turbine, powerwall type battery systems, 40 amp 220v charging circuit, whatever else along these lines I have forgotten. Yes switching all of London or Washington D.C. to EV overnight would put a massive strain on the grid if we just threw 40 amp 220v circuit in every garage. However if you put other improvements in the same garage the grid impact is greatly reduced, say a powerwall and solar charging system. do that and the grid impact is massively reduced. Even just a power wall that charges itself during the low demand period of the 24 hour cycle and is able to transfer that energy to a BEV or two during their recharge cycle would greatly diminish grid impact. The entire cost would be in the form of tax offset for whatever taxes you paid in every year to the Federal Government until you had received the full amount. Not a lump sum gift in one year, but if the system cost you $20,000.00 and you paid in $14,000.00 in taxes you get that $14,000.00 back the first year and the second year you get the other $6,000.00. This kind of government policy could do wonders, back in the 1970's the drafty old farmhouse I grew up in built by my great grandfather got massive energy upgrades under the President Carter tax rebates. Foam insulation, all new wiring and that wasn't even a full bore refund program.

Four instead of piddling around the Federal Government would purchase consumer level hybrid vehicle models for all their car purchases of the same type of vehicle. At minimum I know Ford and Toyota have offered Hybrid SUV models and all the car companies offer passenger sedans. The Federal Government buys thousands, tens of thousands of vehicles for government facilities every year and auctions them off on a 3 or 5 year cycle for replacement. If the government specified they would be buying only hybrid, flex fuel capable, plug in capable vehicles from now on the manufacturers would make those minor changes in their consumer option packages to accommodate government purchases. Once the manufacturers have set up the assembly lines for that offering the same package to Joe6P is a no-brainer.

Five do the same kind of upgrades as Number 3 to all federal garages so that when those new government flex fuel PHEV show up the government can charge them without straining the grid excessively.

Six, once the Federal Government has instituted the first 5 encourage cities and states to do the same transition with their vehicle fleets by offering guidelines to receive federal grants. What I mean by this is, if State X, say Minnesotan, mirrors the federal upgrades for garages and vehicle fleets and makes the upgrades part of their regulations for all future purchases they get a one time federal grant for the equipment cost. No feather bedding contracts where MN gets to charge 10 times the cost that anyone else would have paid to get the same upgrade installed, but the state only has to pay installation costs, the federal grant covers the cost of the equipment to do the upgrade.

Those six steps could have been done basically any time in the last 25 years that the politicians of different flavors have been bemoaning climate issues and fuel cost issues. I honestly think those regulatory changes would be a huge step in the right direction, and sadly I do not expect any of those steps to be taken in the next 25 years for the same reasons they were not taken in the last 25 years.


I would put electing entirely different leadership at the top as a critical first step, meaning massive campaign finance and lobbying reform. Meanwhile, we get tax cuts and existing programs are being gutted; all-the-while debt levels keep rising.

Nice pipe dream though.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2380
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 10:00:50

Very good Tanada. I have a few additional changes, not related to electric cars but energy use . First we should find ways to drive fewer miles.

But we are all just kids wishing for a pony for Christmas. As you note.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby GASMON » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 12:25:19

Tanada wrote: consumers get a full tax credit for installing home electrical upgrades. This covers solar panels, personal wind turbine, powerwall type battery systems, 40 amp 220v charging circuit, whatever else along these lines I have forgotten. Yes switching all of London or Washington D.C. to EV overnight would put a massive strain on the grid if we just threw 40 amp 220v circuit in every garage. However if you put other improvements in the same garage the grid impact is greatly reduced, say a powerwall and solar charging system. do that and the grid impact is massively reduced. Even just a power wall that charges itself during the low demand period of the 24 hour cycle and is able to transfer that energy to a BEV or two during their recharge cycle would greatly diminish grid impact.


That's a very good idea, a domestic powerwall linked to a smart meter that charges during non peak times (using solar & wind also) which can also charge EV's.

For me though such a powerwall needs to be outside the property as a potential battery fire in a house would be lethal (just my thoughts). Not too difficult to do.

Have we enough Lithium (etc) in the world to equip us all (and the rapidly developing third world) with car and powerwall batteries ?

This is an interesting view of the UK's electricity generation in real UK time. Move your cursor across the graph. Note the straight line nuclear baseload.

http://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?_k=jwxrcr

We are getting on with wind & solar. Tidal next, we have the technology but seem to lack political will.

Gas
The truth is sometimes incorrect
User avatar
GASMON
Prognosticator
Prognosticator
 
Posts: 2489
Joined: Sat 29 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: England

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 13:07:48

GASMON wrote:
Tanada wrote: consumers get a full tax credit for installing home electrical upgrades. This covers solar panels, personal wind turbine, powerwall type battery systems, 40 amp 220v charging circuit, whatever else along these lines I have forgotten. Yes switching all of London or Washington D.C. to EV overnight would put a massive strain on the grid if we just threw 40 amp 220v circuit in every garage. However if you put other improvements in the same garage the grid impact is greatly reduced, say a powerwall and solar charging system. do that and the grid impact is massively reduced. Even just a power wall that charges itself during the low demand period of the 24 hour cycle and is able to transfer that energy to a BEV or two during their recharge cycle would greatly diminish grid impact.


That's a very good idea, a domestic powerwall linked to a smart meter that charges during non peak times (using solar & wind also) which can also charge EV's.

For me though such a powerwall needs to be outside the property as a potential battery fire in a house would be lethal (just my thoughts). Not too difficult to do.

Have we enough Lithium (etc) in the world to equip us all (and the rapidly developing third world) with car and powerwall batteries ?

This is an interesting view of the UK's electricity generation in real UK time. Move your cursor across the graph. Note the straight line nuclear baseload.

http://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?_k=jwxrcr

We are getting on with wind & solar. Tidal next, we have the technology but seem to lack political will.

Gas



I have no problem putting the 'power wall' in a separate small structure like a garden shed size structure and just running the power cable to the Garage for the charging system, in fact I think that is a lot more sensible than placing it inside the house for the very reason you cite. For the lithium issue something to keep in mind is the whole reason for using exotic ingredients is to reduce weight and volume to squeeze enough power in a personal vehicle. Accepting that the goal is to have an energy reserve without the need to squeeze it in your car you can fill a standard size garden shed with basic deep cycle lead acid batteries that are relatively speaking cheap and reliable because we have so much experience with them. The whole Lithium problem is IMO grossly overstated.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 14871
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 13:47:50

Tanada, lead-acid batteries, even the deep cycle variety, cost half as much as lithium but have a quarter of the rated charge/discharge cycles. For true off-grid applications, one would choose either lithium or iron phosphate, which are kinda rare. Lead-acid batteries in regular deep discharge last 5-15 years, lithium cells last 10-25 years. Lots of variables we didn't discuss.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5298
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby GHung » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 14:05:12

Nickel iron (Ni-Fe) batteries last decades, have very low fire risks, and would cost a lot less if mass produced at higher levels. They use more water than lead-acid batteries but automatic watering systems are simple and cheap.

Image

The primary problem with lithium-ion battery fires is cells failing to a shorted state. Large banks have each individual cell fused to the bus to protect against such events.

As I've posted many times, we've had great service from lead-acid batteries (current set going strong at 11 years). The trick is to oversize the battery set and keeping them charged at or near full charge (not to short-cycle them a lot). That's not a problem with grid-tied installations.

Image

The whole fear of battery thing is a bit ridiculous. Costs? I know folks who spend more money on the latest i-Phone over time,, or vacations,,, or much more on cars.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2380
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 17:56:12

Tanada wrote:If I have a magic wand of government policy I would make half a dozen changes in anticipation of peak oil.

...

Second all Hybrid vehicles would have plug in charge capability as standard equipment and be programmed to make full use of it. You don't need full BEV range to make plug in recharge sensible, but you do need the plug and the computer software to allow the use of the option.

Tanada I like your ideas here and the spirit behind those ideas.

I disagree on the "all hybrid vehicles" idea re mandating they be pluggable (at least for the class of HEV cars as currently designed. Getting roughly 50 mpg in a car, which the best modern HEV's can do for a midsized sedan for only roughly $3,000 to $4000 extra, is pretty aweseome compared to a standard ICE).

A basic HEV like a Prius, etc. has a relatively small, light battery. It is called a "traction" battery, and is used to help the car get better mileage. It is NOT viable to have such a battery provide a meaningful number of BEV miles (as I understand it). Some can provide a mile or so under certain circumstances today, but nothing like the 25ish to 50ish miles a PHEV typically provides.

The difference in the battery for the 50ish mile PHEV is around 700 pounds of battery, which means significant weight and expense, and even designing the PHEV to run efficiently with the battery (like lighter seats, less acceleration with a more efficient gasoline engine, and some ride quality compromises).

(Example, which I've researched: the Honda Clarity PHEV vs. the Honda Accord HEV. VERY similar cars, except the extra 700 pounds of battery (and roughy $7500 extra cost) for the Clarity. I concluded that after the tax credit on the Clarity, that the Accord is a better car for those who want to take lots of long trips and drive lots of highway miles. More comfort, and more efficiency on the highway. OTOH, for folks like me who drive 95% city miles and rarely drive 50 miles a day, the PHEV (even with its less comfortable seats, etc) would make tons of sense as almost all gasoline miles could now be pure electric miles.)

Now, trying to encourage car makers to make more PHEV's and less HEV's, moving toward far less gasoline miles in cities over time is a laudable goal. But that WILL entail significant costs at purchase time. Tax credits may help defray those for awhile, but someone has to pay for all that extra battery.

Maybe the issue is semantics, and if I'm just not understanding what you're saying, my bad.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5651
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Zarquon » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 18:35:47

GASMON wrote:
We are getting on with wind & solar. Tidal next, we have the technology but seem to lack political will.

Gas


I don't know if you're familiar with this online book about UK energy consumption and possibilities for change; it's a decade old now, but a great primer and resource:
http://www.withouthotair.com/
Zarquon
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 231
Joined: Fri 06 May 2016, 19:53:46

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 19:53:20

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
I disagree on the "all hybrid vehicles" idea re mandating they be pluggable (at least for the class of HEV cars as currently designed. Getting roughly 50 mpg in a car, which the best modern HEV's can do for a midsized sedan for only roughly $3,000 to $4000 extra, is pretty aweseome compared to a standard ICE).


I think you are using fuzzy math there. $4000 at today's $3.00/gallon will buy you 1,333 gallons of gas that in say A Toyota Camry L that gets 41 MPG highway will take you 54,667 miles and you will have paid for that gas out of pocket so didn't finance it or pay sales tax on it. There are some good reasons to move to EVs but at the present time and present prices saving money isn't one of them. 8)
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8927
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 21:03:35

vtsnowedin wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
I disagree on the "all hybrid vehicles" idea re mandating they be pluggable (at least for the class of HEV cars as currently designed. Getting roughly 50 mpg in a car, which the best modern HEV's can do for a midsized sedan for only roughly $3,000 to $4000 extra, is pretty aweseome compared to a standard ICE).


I think you are using fuzzy math there. $4000 at today's $3.00/gallon will buy you 1,333 gallons of gas that in say A Toyota Camry L that gets 41 MPG highway will take you 54,667 miles and you will have paid for that gas out of pocket so didn't finance it or pay sales tax on it. There are some good reasons to move to EVs but at the present time and present prices saving money isn't one of them. 8)

Ah. Not fuzzy math, but fuzzy on not explaining motivations, i.e. what I meant by "awesome".

You're absolutely right on the cost issue. Unless gasoline gets to be more like $5, even if a HEV only has a $3,000 to $4,000 premium at purchase time, it's not a good deal economically. For one thing, those HEV batteries and the related parts can have problems, and repair/replacement at around 120,000 to 150,000 miles can be quite expensive.

What I was talking about as "awesome" was saving energy / gasoline burned. Real world, I get about 20 mpg in my 2017 Camry, due to all the long traffic signals abundant in my typical routes.

Now, supposedly, a 2018 Camry HEV will get more like 45 mpg overall, especially the LE vs. SE, due to less weight. And various reviews I've read claim the claims are pretty accurate, according to real world testing. To me, basically doubling the real world mpg is pretty awesome.

But obviously, only someone who cares about that vs. only minimizing costs would agree. What bothers me is that the car dealers tend to carry so few HEV's, that they seem like compliance vehicles. It's like they want to have them on the books to look like good guys, but not really sell them.

When I bought my 2017 Camry in 1/2017, there were literally hundreds to choose from of every color and trim and option level on the lot. There were literally TWO of the HEV variety, and I didn't like the options or the cost of those -- especially since their real world mileage in the 2017 model was more like 35 than 45.

I keep hoping this gets better, but I fear only nasty gasoline prices will make it so.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5651
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby GASMON » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 04:23:22

I don't know how you buy / finance / lease automobiles over in the USA but here in the UK most new cars (of any type) are leased on a PCP (personal contract plan) - effectively you don't own the car you lease it.

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/car-f ... -purchase/

The problem for most is that any form of a new EV is high, and after X miles and Y years there is a massive looming cost of battery replacement. Perhaps not owning an EV but leasing it (even for short periods like a rental car) is the way to go - spread out the purchase cost and gain by reduced running costs.

There are already such plans out there in the UK.

https://www.buyacar.co.uk/cars/economic ... ctric-cars

https://www.whatcar.com/news/hybrid-cars-pcp/

Gas
The truth is sometimes incorrect
User avatar
GASMON
Prognosticator
Prognosticator
 
Posts: 2489
Joined: Sat 29 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: England

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 05:45:45

Thirty percent of new cars in the USA are leased. The rest are outright purchases or financed often with a branch of the auto company acting as the banker. Most lease deals here are a rip off that customers don't understand until they go to turn in the car. Of course the turned in cars are resold as high grade used cars as the auto company goes through them with a fine toothed comb billing the former lessee for any damage or repairs needed.
I prefer to buy new and drive them until they are ready for the crusher as this often gives me years of payment free driving for the cost of regular oil changes and the occasional brake job. It is not unusual to get ten years and 250,000 miles on a vehicle if you avoid crashes.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8927
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 15 Sep 2018, 12:26:39

GHung wrote:Nickel iron (Ni-Fe) batteries last decades, have very low fire risks, and would cost a lot less if mass produced at higher levels. They use more water than lead-acid batteries but automatic watering systems are simple and cheap.


Non starter for BEVs because:

1) they waste too much electricity during charging (coulumbic efficiency)
2) poor power to weight ratio
3) nickel is becoming a precious metal

Issue 1 make them questionable for off-grid because you want to hold onto as much renewable generation as possible.

Newfie wrote:First we should find ways to drive fewer miles.


There is already one way...telecommuting. Just requires a culture-shift.

GASMON wrote:The problem for most is that any form of a new EV is high, and after X miles and Y years there is a massive looming cost of battery replacement.


If battery costs keep coming down then the replacement costs might not be so "massive". That is, assuming that replacements are even made available. The planned obsolescence factor with BEVs is a big questionmark right now. I think Nissan is the only automaker that routinely offers battery pack replacement for old cars, and that's only because their pack lifespans suck so badly. There really is going to need to be an aftermarket for all plugins if the intention is to allow them to stay on the road for decades.

That being said, the other enhancements of future models (like improved safety features and full autonomy) may make the prospect of holding onto an old BEV until it rusts into oblivion not that attractive.
[space to store bad short-term prediction currently vacant]
asg70
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1870
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 15 Sep 2018, 14:11:48

vtsnowedin wrote:Thirty percent of new cars in the USA are leased. The rest are outright purchases or financed often with a branch of the auto company acting as the banker. Most lease deals here are a rip off that customers don't understand until they go to turn in the car. Of course the turned in cars are resold as high grade used cars as the auto company goes through them with a fine toothed comb billing the former lessee for any damage or repairs needed.
I prefer to buy new and drive them until they are ready for the crusher as this often gives me years of payment free driving for the cost of regular oil changes and the occasional brake job. It is not unusual to get ten years and 250,000 miles on a vehicle if you avoid crashes.



I did that with 3 Tarus wagons. Never got to 250 but did OK.

I just had to replace my 98 Isuzu Trooper. I bought a 2008 Nissan Pathfinder with 62k and some cosmetic issues, was a company vehicle and someone paired over the logo with a spray can. Otherwise seems to be OK.

I find it very hard to purchas a used vehicle for a per/mile cost lower than a new vehicle assuming a 150,000 mile life and discounting the new car warranty. I can do it but I need to shop a lot.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

PreviousNext

Return to Energy Technology

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests