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THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 09 Sep 2018, 13:39:35

It is worth to notice here that mainly white race is affected by low sperm count and within white race WASP-s are most affected.
It looks like the wealthier you are, the lower your sperm count.
But I suspect that a small number of surviving Pygmies living far away from endocrine disruptors will be more than enough to fertilize all the women-in-need.
I bet, their children are going to be cute though...
For humans jig is going to be up once female reproduction is distorted enough not to allow to produce viable eggs (still solvable by stem cell technofix perhaps) and finally not to allow fertilized egg to be implanted and develop due to womb malfunction (good chance for no technofix here - it seems that no existing or near term tech can replace womb between 3rd and 20th week of pregnancy and even if become available would be exceedingly expensive to run).
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 09 Sep 2018, 13:52:20

Tanada wrote: From fire you can build all else of civilization.

Assuming that other resurces are also available to permit that.
Otherwise you won't get further than to XVII century level and even that is not certain.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 09 Sep 2018, 14:02:41

KaiserJeep wrote:Yes. Even if 99% of 4 billion people die, the surviving 1% is 40 million people. They will have an industrial civilization, internet, power grid, and space travel. The "Doom" part is the people, due to lack of cheap energy and cheap food.

Disagree.
Knowledge gaps and lack of labor will break many interdependend links required to keep high tech going.
Infrastructure will dissipate and critical materials necessary to build advanced electronics will no longer be manufactured. Expertise is also going to be largerly lost.
Though power grid and 1930-ties tech may well prevail.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tuike » Sun 09 Sep 2018, 15:13:11

I remember, in the 1990s ufo boom, there was an ufo contactee person in morning tv show. The ufo contactee said to tv host that "Space aliens told me that if humans continue their current lifestyle, they'll become infertile." Tv host told the ufo contactee angrily to not to talk crap. I guess the space aliens were right after all.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 12 Sep 2018, 03:38:33

EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Tanada wrote: From fire you can build all else of civilization.

Assuming that other resurces are also available to permit that.
Otherwise you won't get further than to XVII century level and even that is not certain.


Common mistake, you associate civilization with the 21st century apex we crrently have. Civilization at its most basic boils down to food production and storage allowing people to live in villages and specialize in tasks that improve the stats of the whole. Ancient Ur and ancient Quito and ancient Kyoto were all civilizations with technology far short of the 17th century level you speculate about. Reality is we know how to build far more efficient sailng ships than the people in 1750 built using no tools not part of their civilization tool kit. The same is true of germ theory, boiling medical instruments or soaking them in high proof alcohols distilled from common beer does wonders for reducing infection rates.

Basically with knowledge and fire you can live a quite successful early 20th century lifestyle. You might have steam power based on fire if you have access to fossil coal deposits, or you mght be limited to just biofuel supply limits, but with fire you get metal working and all the things that come with metal. If you have access to fossil fuels for your steam tech you can get to town scale electricity very easily. Wth even minimal electricity and metal working you get radio tech, and with just a little more you get TV. How far you go technology wise with fire as your starting point depends on access to flammable resources you can use. Depending on demand you can actually supply electricity with biofuel powered boilers quite well, but you need a low population density to allow soace for biofuel production.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 12 Sep 2018, 21:47:24

Will the global population also have to be as small as that of the early 20th century, and static?
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 09:08:01

ralfy wrote:Will the global population also have to be as small as that of the early 20th century, and static?


Modern wheat, rice and maize are not the same plants we were growing in 1918, all three have been bread to produce far greater yields than their century ago versions. In addition to that reality a great deal of fully viable crop land in North America has been allowed to return to fallow/wild status in the last half century of megafarm style agriculture. Half the farms from Maine to Minnesota have been allowed to go back to woodlot since 1972 when Federal policy was changed to encourage mega corporate farms vs family operations. All of that land is still there and still viable farmland and if people need to grow more food it will be put back into production.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 09:30:02

Tanada wrote:
ralfy wrote:Will the global population also have to be as small as that of the early 20th century, and static?


Modern wheat, rice and maize are not the same plants we were growing in 1918, all three have been bread to produce far greater yields than their century ago versions. In addition to that reality a great deal of fully viable crop land in North America has been allowed to return to fallow/wild status in the last half century of megafarm style agriculture. Half the farms from Maine to Minnesota have been allowed to go back to woodlot since 1972 when Federal policy was changed to encourage mega corporate farms vs family operations. All of that land is still there and still viable farmland and if people need to grow more food it will be put back into production.


By whom? Bank tellers? Smartphone salesman? Tax preparers?
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 09:54:43

Tanada wrote: In addition to that reality a great deal of fully viable crop land in North America has been allowed to return to fallow/wild status in the last half century of megafarm style agriculture. Half the farms from Maine to Minnesota have been allowed to go back to woodlot since 1972 when Federal policy was changed to encourage mega corporate farms vs family operations. All of that land is still there and still viable farmland and if people need to grow more food it will be put back into production.


Maybe things are different in the US, but here in Ontario farm land has reverted back to forest primarily where the soil was too thin and nutrient poor to sustain farming.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 12:54:22

yellowcanoe wrote:
Tanada wrote: In addition to that reality a great deal of fully viable crop land in North America has been allowed to return to fallow/wild status in the last half century of megafarm style agriculture. Half the farms from Maine to Minnesota have been allowed to go back to woodlot since 1972 when Federal policy was changed to encourage mega corporate farms vs family operations. All of that land is still there and still viable farmland and if people need to grow more food it will be put back into production.


Maybe things are different in the US, but here in Ontario farm land has reverted back to forest primarily where the soil was too thin and nutrient poor to sustain farming.


In the USA east of the Mississippi it has been mostly small farms going out of business because they can not compete economically with corporate farms that use the same equipment over ten thousand acres that a 320 acre farm would need amortizing the costs and using hired labor vs family labor in many cases. Those farms that remain in my area are mostly cases of where the most successful small farmer in an area has bought up neighboring farmland as smaller farms went into bankruptcy so that they have collectively large parcels of land except it is separated into small parcels interspersed with other farm parcels from other successful farmer who have followed the same practice. Further west in the Great Plains the corporate farms are generally adjoining properties instead of being interspersed so the corporate farm can start harvesting on say the southeast corner of the property and keep going until they reach the north west corner without having to skip over other parcels. Here in Ohio a farmer has a 25 acre lot here and then two interspersed plots then another 50 acre plot and so on scattered over 10 miles of territory but totally up into a thousand acre farm more or less. When we need to put those eastern fallow lands back in service (when it becomes profitable) because earths population is still rapidly growing someone will lumber those fallow lots and put them back into productive use. Depending on circumstances they might even get government assistance through use of eminent domain practices to create consolidated large acreage farms by forcing the remaining small farms to all sell to a corporate large entity to force the farming east of the Mississippi to morph into strong resemblance of the western farm practices.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 21:19:52

Tanada wrote:
Modern wheat, rice and maize are not the same plants we were growing in 1918, all three have been bread to produce far greater yields than their century ago versions. In addition to that reality a great deal of fully viable crop land in North America has been allowed to return to fallow/wild status in the last half century of megafarm style agriculture. Half the farms from Maine to Minnesota have been allowed to go back to woodlot since 1972 when Federal policy was changed to encourage mega corporate farms vs family operations. All of that land is still there and still viable farmland and if people need to grow more food it will be put back into production.


The greater yields also involve mechanized agriculture.

Also, the global population does not thrive on food alone. Likely, the Green Revolution was coupled with mass manufacturing, leading to extensive production not just of food but of medicine, construction materials, and many other components used for industrial civilization and distributed through extensive supply chains, and it is that civilization on a global scale that led to the world population increasing significantly from 1945 to the present.

Finally, even if the current population operates entirely through ecovillages, it might still be in overshoot.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 09:33:50

GHung wrote:
Tanada wrote:Modern wheat, rice and maize are not the same plants we were growing in 1918, all three have been bread to produce far greater yields than their century ago versions. In addition to that reality a great deal of fully viable crop land in North America has been allowed to return to fallow/wild status in the last half century of megafarm style agriculture. Half the farms from Maine to Minnesota have been allowed to go back to woodlot since 1972 when Federal policy was changed to encourage mega corporate farms vs family operations. All of that land is still there and still viable farmland and if people need to grow more food it will be put back into production.


By whom? Bank tellers? Smartphone salesman? Tax preparers?


Farmers.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 09:48:24

Tanada wrote:
GHung wrote:
Tanada wrote:Modern wheat, rice and maize are not the same plants we were growing in 1918, all three have been bread to produce far greater yields than their century ago versions. In addition to that reality a great deal of fully viable crop land in North America has been allowed to return to fallow/wild status in the last half century of megafarm style agriculture. Half the farms from Maine to Minnesota have been allowed to go back to woodlot since 1972 when Federal policy was changed to encourage mega corporate farms vs family operations. All of that land is still there and still viable farmland and if people need to grow more food it will be put back into production.


By whom? Bank tellers? Smartphone salesman? Tax preparers?


Farmers.


I've seen stats that, over the last century, the percentage of Americans that are farmers has declined from upwards of 25% to less than 2%. Methinks we are going to need a lot more farmers, especially if the massive energy and chemical subsidies that support the so-called 'green revolution' go into a big decline. Just sayin'. Yes, some folks can grow a little food to supplement their diets, but I see a problem of scale, and a problem of societal entitlement (WHAT???! Me? Grow food?)

Maybe we can implement a movement; Smartphones to plowshares, eh?
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sat 15 Sep 2018, 05:25:49

Some things can change reasonable fast. For the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the BBC has been running a series of articles about it and its aftermath....One includes the following, which in my opinion is caused by a wider (and unexpected) change in society.

Note: This just relates to the States.

1. We have fewer children, if we have them at all

In the decade since the recession, American women had 4.8 million fewer babies than demographers were expecting.

No, that isn't a typo.

"Every year when I look at the fertility data I expect the number of births to go up and it hasn't," says University of New Hampshire Professor Kenneth Johnson.

Prof Johnson says part of the fertility decline is attributable to women in their early and late 20s having fewer children than expected - in other words, my classmates and those who came after us.

And it's not getting better. The gap is getting wider - which is why he brings up a historical parallel.....


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https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45478670
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 18 Sep 2018, 16:35:30

the population is growing rapidly in New Zealand

https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/population
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