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Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 25 Aug 2018, 10:55:49


Study Finds Billions of Dollars in Home Value Lost to Rising Sea Levels


Rather than looking at the neighborhood as a whole, flooding was measured on the basis of individual properties. They offer predictions for future flood risk and home value change up to 2033—which shows that some properties with no history of flooding are at risk, and homeowners stand to lose millions of dollars.


Previous studies have forecasted changes in home values in the future, but by using historical records and taking such a fine-grained approach, the team was able to show for the first time that housing markets have already started showing the effects of rising sea levels.

“This is the very beginning indicator that sea level rise and flooding is having an economic impact, and that the market is responding to it,” said Matthew Eby, executive director of First Street Foundation.

And the decline in home values doesn’t just come from houses getting flooded. In addition to house lots, they also looked at the elevation of each road and its exposure to nearby bodies of water. Nearby flooding of roads can impact house prices because it affects commutes and mobility, said Jeremy Porter, professor of sociology at the City University of New York, lecturer in environmental health sciences at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, and academic data consultant at First Street Foundation.

The Northeast data has been consistent with previous data from the South, a surprise for the team. Over half of the top 20 affected cities and zip codes are in the Northeast. “The exposure of the New Jersey shore is incredible,” McAlpine said. “It takes you back a little bit when you look at Ocean City and see how many homes are regularly dealing with flooding.” ...


http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/earth ... ea-levels/
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 25 Aug 2018, 12:48:44

Image
This is the Miacomet Golf Course on Nantucket Island, MA. About 125 years old, the irrigated land has subsided about 18 inches below the surrounding moors in that period. Even the moors are not stable, the once heavily forested island was clearcut by the late 19th Century. The forest detritus layer that supports the moors has decayed away since then, the remaining plant cover is sparse compared to a few decades ago.

My own land is in a second growth pine forest in the center island area. Somewhere between 300 and 1000 years from now, the island will have shrank to a fraction of the present size, and this will be beachfront property.
Image
(Not my house, rather a neighbor down the lane.)(This modest 4-bedroom, 4-bath with pool and hot tub is listed for $3,995,000.)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby diemos » Sat 25 Aug 2018, 15:06:35

Why that's just a starter mansion.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 25 Aug 2018, 15:55:23

diemos wrote:Why that's just a starter mansion.

Correct. I have a 2-bedroom, 2-bath, under 1000 sq ft with no spa or pool. However it is on 3.2 acres, not the less-than-three-quarter acre of the above dwelling. We can build 3 or 4 more homes as rentals in addition to the one I have, or subdivide and sell.

Eventually, it will be underwater. If you believe in AGW, perhaps a tropical climate before then.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 25 Aug 2018, 16:15:33

KJ - But the good news: you won't be alive to see much of the property lost to SL rise let alone become beach front property. And who ever owns the land in 50 years will likewise see little of the land THAT THEYWILL BUY lost to SL rise in their life time. And who ever buys it when it's beach front will not have lost any of that future submerged land because it will not be there when they buy the: they probably won't be born for another 50+ years yet.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 25 Aug 2018, 18:58:41

Yes, random, unsubstantiated anecdote is a much better way to judge what is happening than careful, peer reviewed studies... :lol: :lol: :lol:

I will now leave you bright folks to your own alternative reality with your own alternative facts.

The truth, as we have all be instructed by our overmasters, is not, after all, the truth.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 31 Aug 2018, 13:05:27

ROCKMAN wrote:KJ - But the good news: you won't be alive to see much of the property lost to SL rise let alone become beach front property. And who ever owns the land in 50 years will likewise see little of the land THAT THEYWILL BUY lost to SL rise in their life time. And who ever buys it when it's beach front will not have lost any of that future submerged land because it will not be there when they buy the: they probably won't be born for another 50+ years yet.


Ah, the 'Not in my Lifetime' response. Yes, we like shoving consequences and responsibility on future generations.

Unfortunately for us (collectively) that while the older among us lucked out in our fifty year time slot, the next fifty year time slot will probably see whole cities and suburbs submerged and abandoned. I think Manhattan will become another Venice, so property will not quite become worthless, but then who would be the tourists? and what wealth would there be to manage at that point? Lifeboats may be a growth industry, though, and there could be a Futures market on it, too :-D
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 31 Aug 2018, 13:51:28

NYC is no Venice. Venice was purpose built in that wet environment. It conspired with nature to provide protection behind a really big moat. It will sink due to SLR.

NYC is at odds with nature, in defiance. It can not adapt to the wet environment. Parts of the city may remain, but other parts will need to be abandoned. Then fail and bus system will be hit hard as much of their maintenance infrastructure is in the filled prior we lands.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 31 Aug 2018, 14:58:31

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Liberty Island and South Manhattan behind a concrete seawall.
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Re: Mass Exodus from US Coasts begins in LA

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 10 Sep 2018, 05:50:56

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Re: Mass Exodus from US Coasts begins in LA

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 10 Sep 2018, 06:58:39

Newfie wrote:MSM article on the topic.

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/09/08/a ... alifornia/


All that affordable housing back east in those rust belt states just sitting and waiting for a renaissance.
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Re: Mass Exodus from US Coasts begins in LA

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 10 Sep 2018, 09:32:44

Detroit!
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Re: Mass Exodus from US Coasts begins in LA

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 10 Sep 2018, 09:35:18

Doomers must doom, I suppose. But the real estate business in NYC, Boston, most major cities is fine. On Nantucket, in spite of spiraling prices, things are just fine. After all, they just are not making places to live anymore, the planet is filling with people.

I wanted to have my carpet cleaned here on the island, but was told they were booking in December. Three unsolicited bids for the island house, all over $1M. I might have to wait 3+ years to construct another home here.

The Silicon Valley home will list for over $1M, and almost certainly sell for more. That's what passes for normal.

Not saying this is sensible, just that there are no signs of mass exodus. Fake News. What is happening is the further erosion of the middle class, and the high demand for high end real estate is accelerating.
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Re: Mass Exodus from US Coasts begins in LA

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 10 Sep 2018, 13:42:52

KJ - Let's go back to the first post after the lead article...yours, in fact: "It's a bad news/bad news sort of thing. The more fresh water you pump up from the ground, the faster it subsides. The most fresh water is pumped in areas where there are the most people."

The primary reason for these newly designated “uninhabitable” areas has nothing to do with pumping out ground water or sea level rise. The situation would be identical had no ground water been pumped or if there was never an increase in seal level. The primary cause is SUBSIDENCE. Amazing how such easily researched data there is that very few bother to pull…including you, my friend.

Consider all the coastal area of south La. How many are aware that there are rocks 35,000’+ below that area that were deposited in less than 5’ of water? Yes: the ground has subsided more than 6 MILES BELOW THE CURRENT SURFACE. That’s not a typo: more than 6 miles. Granted it took millions of years. But it still continues today. There are numerous documentations of how much the land has continued to subside over the last 200 years. I know first-hand: I grew up in New Orleans. Search "Gulf of Mexico GEOSYNCLINE". South La. Is the worst place in the US to argue CC sea level change: it is easily countered with the subsidence phenomenon. It is not doing the cause any benefit.

Yep: lots of “inhabitable” areas along the coast there today. Just as there was before the fossil fuel age. Just as there was 1,000 years ago. Just as there was 100,000 years ago. Etc. Etc.
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Re: Mass Exodus from US Coasts begins in LA

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 10 Sep 2018, 13:53:05

And if you're curious about coastal erosion and why it's happening with the Mississippi River being one of the largest sediment carriers on the planet you can thank the US Corps of Engineers. Again easy data search: "Louisiana coastal erosion" or "Mississippi River migration".
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Re: Mass Exodus from US Coasts begins in LA

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 09:28:45

Rockman, the islands of Nantucket and the Vineyard and nearby Cape Cod are as old as the end of the Pliocene, they are heaps of sand pushed up by the ice sheets, and left protruding above mean sea level 12,000 years ago when the ice retreated. But you can see that the golf greens have sunk 18" below the surrounding moors, irrigation and cultivation for more than a century caused that. The fresh water aquifer is being depleted by too many wells despite of plentiful rainfall, the edges of the island aquifer are being infiltrated by sea water, the beach properties often have brackish well water. Even my center-island well is very hard water, I drink and cook with bottled water.
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Re: Mass Exodus from US Coasts begins in LA

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 13:29:29

KJ - Ground withdrawal has been the cause of significant subsidence in Houston. On a large scale has caused something of a bowl effect for the city. Not major factor but certainly didn't help with our flooding problems.
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