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Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 12 Sep 2018, 20:24:20

Yes, but the windfield has expanded: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Flore ... its-Hawaii

and "the storm remains a catastrophic rainfall threat and significant storm surge and wind threat to the Southeast"

Note that there's lots of other activity in the Atlantic...kind of a crazy amount, actually:

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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 12 Sep 2018, 22:30:20

"Hurricane Florence: Downgraded to Category 2 storm as it heads toward Carolinas"

This is good news, but it is still expanding as it weakens. Which means that the storm surge of 9 - 12 feet will extend from around Cape Hatteras to south of Wilmington (and probably even further, if it turns south while still at sea and travels down the coast as the best model predicts, last I looked).

https://6abc.com/weather/hurricane-flor ... -/4200733/

Apparently windshear and some dry air have knocked her down a bit, but Flo is about to go over the Gulf Stream, so that could provide a bit more energy before landfall, perhaps.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 07:41:58

Live feed of surf at Kitty Hawk here: https://www.cnn.com/specials/live-video-1
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 09:48:42

Is it going to be a rain bomb like Harvey was? Perhaps.

Is North Carolina better prepared for such a rain event than was Texas? Hope so.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 09:54:09

Depends. NC does not have the big city to worry about. Hurricane Matthew dropped a lot of rain and the New Bern area was flooded for months afterward. New Bern itself was fine because it is right in the Neuse River and the water has an escape path. It appears roads and railways across the swamp above New Bern backed up the water and created the flood. They are still there.

It will be another PITA but I don’t think it will be catastrophic.

The shore communities will be hit hard for sure.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Cog » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 10:01:06

I have not looked at a topographic map of North and South Carolina but doesn't it have more relief than the flatness around Houston? If so the water will tend to drain away faster.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 10:09:16

Depends upon where you are, above the tide water or below. Lots of that area extending far South is flat and/or swamp. Charleston area is called the “low country”.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 10:39:24

North Carolina Weakened Its Building Codes in 2013

Five years ago, encouraged by home builders and an anti-regulatory zeal, lawmakers in North Carolina joined other states in weakening building code requirements.

It’s a decision they may regret as Hurricane Florence takes aim at the Carolinas.


The Legislature in 2013 increased the amount of time between updates to its building code from three years to six. That means that updates that set new standards for elevating the floors in flood-prone homes aren’t in effect, according to the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes Inc., a non-profit disaster safety organization.

North Carolina’s 2013 decision means that code requiring at least one foot of elevated space known as “free board” in certain residential homes in flood prone areas won’t be in effect.

In 2015, the North Carolina Building Code Council deleted a requirement that shutters in areas subject to high winds be permanently installed.

While many homes were built before the new codes would have taken effect, without them houses rebuilt after the hurricane won’t be required to use the most up-to-date codes.
... “By not keeping pace you are shifting the cost to the consumer and they don’t even know it”

The Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety ... lowered the state’s score in an assessment of building codes in hurricane-prone states.

... Chapman-Henderson said the shift in North Carolina reflected a push from builders, who argue that new codes make houses more expensive, reducing demand.

The Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety report found that other storm-prone states have been easing their building codes even as the effects of global warming escalates amid increasing anti-regulatory sentiment among state officials, and the desire to avoid anything that might hurt home sales.

https://disastersafety.org/ibhs-public- ... he-states/

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North Carolina Didn't Like Science on Sea Levels … So Passed a Law Against It

In 2012, the state whose low-lying coast lies in the path of Hurricane Florence reacted to a prediction of catastrophically rising seas by banning policies based on such forecasts.
... “If your science gives you a result you don’t like, pass a law saying the result is illegal. Problem solved.”

dire predictions alarmed coastal developers and their allies, who said they did not believe the rise in sea level would be as bad as the worst models predicted and said such forecasts could unnecessarily hurt property values and drive up insurance costs.

As a result, the state’s official policy, rather than adapting to the worst potential effects of climate change, has been to assume it simply won’t be that bad. Instead of forecasts, it has mandated predictions based on historical data on sea level rise.
“Currently the unspoken plan is to wait until the situation is catastrophic and then respond.”

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A report last year by the Union of Concerned Scientists said 13 North Carolina communities were likely to be “chronically inundated” with seawater by 2035.


Trump falsely claims nearly 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico 'did not die'

Nearly 3,000 people died in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. President Donald Trump denied this reality as a hurricane barrels toward the Carolinas.

Earlier this month, the island's governor formally raised the death toll from Hurricane Maria to an estimated 2,975 from 64 following a study conducted by researchers at The George Washington University. The university study accounted for Puerto Ricans who succumbed to the stifling heat and other aftereffects of the storm and had not been previously counted in official figures.

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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 10:59:07

We've been dealing with the effects of partisan gerrymandering in NC for years now. The Republicans have taken full control and have been deregulating and cutting programs while promising big tax cuts that have yet to appear. As a staunch Independent I would feel the same if Democrats had done the same. Sick-and-fucking-tired of partisan/tribal idiocy which supplants pragmatism in a time when that's exactly what we need.

Meanwhile, several courts have declared the NC district maps illegal as a result of party gerrymandering. Too late to change the map before the midterms which means that the upcoming elections are essentially unconstitutional.

NC congressional elections to proceed as scheduled with same maps, court rules

North Carolina’s 13 congressional districts will remain in place and so will the Nov. 6, 2018 election, a federal three-judge panel ruled Tuesday.

The panel ruled last week that the districts are unconstitutional due to “partisan gerrymandering” designed to produce 10 Republican seats. But, with the election only two months away, the plaintiffs in the case — the North Carolina chapters of Common Cause and The League of Women Voters — argued that it was too late to change the maps despite their victory.

On Tuesday, the court agreed.

“We conclude that there is insufficient time for this Court to approve a new districting plan and for the State to conduct an election using that plan prior to the seating of the new Congress in January 2019. And we further find that imposing a new schedule for North Carolina’s congressional elections would, at this late juncture, unduly interfere with the State’s electoral machinery and likely confuse voters and depress turnout,” the court wrote in a four-page order.
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/polit ... 14710.html
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GoghGoner » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 11:25:50

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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 11:52:43

How Hurricane Florence may affect wildlife

... Experience suggests it won’t be pretty, and stories abound from storms past. For example, in August of 2017, Hurricane Harvey nearly wiped out the last remaining population of wild Attwater’s prairie chickens in Texas. Two months later, Hurricane Irma killed off up to 22 percent of the remaining population of endangered Key deer in the Florida Keys.

... While it’s getting to the end of the season, some loggerhead sea turtles still have eggs out there waiting to hatch.

“Beaches are a dynamic system but large storms do have the potential to cause problems for nests and hatchlings,” says David Steen, a research ecologist at the Georgia Sea Turtle Center.

“Submerging nests for a prolonged period of time will reduce their survival, and some storms may even have the potential to just wash them away.”

Besides storm surges and dangerous waves, Hurricane Florence’s winds will likely take a toll on numerous migratory species on their way through the area.


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On a separate note, If you want to follow the money try this website ...

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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 14:09:52

For those who can’t get enough info on the storm, here is a link to a live feed on an old light house platform turned B&B. The Eye will pass very close to here.

You need to read down a bit to find the link.

https://gcaptain.com/you-can-watch-hurr ... heres-how/
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 14:17:05

And here is a lot lace to get close to real time bouy reports. This one is close to the track.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41159
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 17:14:05

(The by then hopefully merely tropical storm) Florence may pass directly over Florence, SC, Saturday morning! https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 289101002/

From what I remember and from google topo-map, that whole area is pretty darn flat, at least until you get to the Fall Line. https://www.google.com/maps/place/South ... 45!5m1!1e4

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_ ... _fall_line

Newf has mentioned New Bern a few times. Storm surge is already causing flooding there: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMOnrhxxNSc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnoFOjYm_14

"a CNN correspondent had to keep shifting position in a park as the water kept rising."

http://www.kimt.com/content/national/493194781.html
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 18:15:38

The perfect storm – Category 5 Super Typhoon Mangkhut in W PacificBy SWE | Tropical weather | 11 September 2018
The exceptional Super Typhoon Mangkhut is currently raging in the western Pacific. It crossed the Mariana Islands two days ago and then rapidly strengthened until today when it reached Category 5 strength with 160 mph sustained winds and central pressure around 915 mbar. It is expected to maintain Category 5 force and gain some additional intensity through the next 48 hours.


http://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-w ... w-pacific/
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 18:20:10

Thanks for that, ol. Lots to keep track of. It looks like that monster is gonna skirt the northern Philippines, then head toward Hong Kong.

Back to Hurricane Florence: storm surge due to the large wind field.

NHC 5pm update Thurs Sept 13:
“Water levels are increasingly quickly on the western side of Pamlico Sound. A gauge at Cedar Island, North Carolina, recently recorded a water height of about 4 feet above normal levels.”

Flooding at North Topsail Beach.
https://mobile.twitter.com/z_lowder14/s ... 4842093569

"Water starting to cross Clark's Neck road just outside of Washington, NC. This is Tranters Creek, which empties into the Tar River.

This is all storm surge, folks and 90 miles from the coast."

And that is before the storm has even made landfall, like possibly 24 hours before...!

Road/river flooding caused by storm surge reported 90 miles inland:
https://twitter.com/nwsmoreheadcity/sta ... 1413316608
Photos at the link.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 18:33:03

ABC and other outlets reporting 170K without power so far. Hopefully they are just shutting things down. They've already taken the nukes offline, and it saves a lot of grid infrastructure if things are de-energized before they come down or get flooded. Won't fry as many transformers, switches,, all that.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 21:24:55

Tornadoes are starting to pop up, some traveling at over 70 mph. Atlanta Beach has already gotten about 13 inches of rain. And it is still many hours till landfall. The beast is barely moving forward at this point...about 5mph...you could fairly easily outrun it!

Cat 1 now, but moving very slow, so likely to drop a lot of rain and cause lots of storm surge
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 22:56:45

European model shows remaining a Hurricane as it stays off the coast until it finally comes ashore in mid South Carolina sometime before midnight tomorrow night.

The path keeps changing more southerly, so who knows. Doesn't look like it's in a hurry to come ashore anytime soon.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 06:38:17

It's now made landfall: https://www.npr.org/2018/09/14/64776742 ... nds-ashore

More problems in New Bern: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane- ... 018-09-14/

"Hurricane Florence storm surge leaves 100 New Bern, North Carolina residents stranded"

People are being warned not to go into their attic unless they have a way to break through the roof if/when the water keeps rising.
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