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Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 19 Aug 2018, 08:13:41

Notice those are not absolute temperatures but the anomaly.

But yes, here on the NE Coast of anewfoundland we have had a warm summer.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 06:31:09

Good catch, Cid.

Another feedback that will weaken/is weakening the sea ice is that more open water means more and bigger waves that can churn deeper, saltier, warmer lower layers of Arctic sea water up to the surface, disrupting the warmer, fresh(er)water 'lens' that has dominated the sea surface for millennia.

And there are other possible processes of course that may warm parts of the Arctic Ocean, like ever warmer currents intruding further north, and 'stuck' weather patterns with large amplitude atmospheric Rossby waves bringing warm air from lower latitudes deep into the Arctic.

Then of course there are all the possible new sources of methane and CO2 from sea and land (and land-locked lakes--see my recent post on the methane thread!) in the region...
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby GHung » Tue 21 Aug 2018, 09:02:32

Maersk to send first container ship through Arctic

The world's biggest shipping company is about to try out a new route.

Denmark's Maersk (AMKBY) said Tuesday it plans to send the first container ship from East Asia to Europe via the Arctic Ocean.

The newly built Venta Maersk is set to leave the Russian port of Vladivostok later this month. It will sail through the Bering Strait and over the top of Russia en route to St. Petersburg, taking what is known as the Northern Sea Route.

"This is a trial designed to explore an unknown route for container shipping and to collect scientific data," Maersk said in a statement. "Currently, we do not see the Northern Sea Route as an alternative to our usual routes."

The company said the Venta Maersk, which can carry roughly 3,600 containers, is designed to withstand waters as cold as minus 25 degrees Celsius (minus 77 degrees Fahrenheit). It will transport a cargo of goods including frozen fish on the trial voyage, after which it will be deployed in Europe's Baltic Sea. ....
https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/21/news/c ... index.html
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 22 Aug 2018, 07:46:06

This year set a 300+ year record.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 014-1482-1
Quote
The position of the ice edge (the gray vertical bars) in August between Svalbard and Franz Josef Land for the period 1553–2012, given as the mean latitude within the sector 20–45°E (modified after Vinje 1999 and updated to summer 2012).


Image

And a record for the whole Atlantic section of the Arctic for the years since we have had reliable satellite data:

Image

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlI2fPoUcAEWlpG.jpg

(Thanks to AM1 at asif for these)
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ICESat-2 Adds the Third Dimension to

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 22 Aug 2018, 15:49:52

ICESat-2 Adds the Third Dimension to Earth

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOXjuiQ3R_o

ICESat-2 will provide scientists with height measurements that create a global portrait of Earth's third dimension, gathering data that can precisely track changes of terrain including glaciers, sea ice, forests and more. The single instrument on ICESat-2 is ATLAS, the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System, will measure melting ice sheets and investigate how this effects sea level rise, investigate changes in the mass of ice sheets and glaciers, estimate and study sea ice thickness, and measure the height of vegetation in forests and other ecosystems worldwide. "Eternal Circle," Laurent Dury, Koka Media SACEM Complete transcript available. This video is public domain and along with other supporting visualizations can be downloaded from the Scientific Visualization Studio at: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12663
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 22 Aug 2018, 20:41:36

"Arctic's strongest sea ice breaks up for first time on record"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... -on-record
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 22 Aug 2018, 22:29:50

JuanP wrote:"Arctic's strongest sea ice breaks up for first time on record"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... -on-record


That's a crack-up, literally, but no laughing matter. Ice takes a while to melt, but when it cracks, it melts faster because there's more surface area and then it gets transported to warmer waters where it can melt even faster still.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Whitefang » Thu 30 Aug 2018, 14:02:01

RS on sea ice tipping into water sweet and salty brime

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/08/29/ ... ng-points/

A new study shows that the excess heat developed in newly ice free zones is being transported beneath the central ice. This heat is sequestered in a layer beneath the surface. But it contains enough energy to keep large regions of the Beaufort Sea ice free during most months if mixed, according to the new research.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 31 Aug 2018, 07:40:16

Vox beat me on that heat but it sure looks grim:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png

The only more or less solid sea ice is North of the Canadian Islands, would the rest drift down South along the Fram someday?
Or maybe melt out in the Barentz sea. Once the arctic monsoon starts we will know for sure, 2020 still the best guess I am afraid.
More and more colours besides the dark purple appear every day.
Piomas must be down at record level...…

http://www.neven1.typepad.com/blog/piomas/

Given the heat on the Siberian side of the Arctic and extensive melting in the Kara and Laptev Seas I had expected a larger drop. Nevertheless, a loss of 6229 km3 of sea ice volume is well above the 2007-2017 average of 6020 km3. This essentially means that 2018 has caught up some more with the years in front of it, and even slipped below 2016 (the difference is a mere 17 km3), which means it's in 5th position as of July 31. The difference with 2012 has been reduced with 610 km3, and is now 907 km3.


The stronger argument for 2018 sea ice being in a terrible state can't be measured strictly by 16 km square 15% extent rule. The 4 km grid proves so. The sea ice is extremely fluid, everywhere with winds:
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2018/08/near-8 ... a-ice.html


Furthermore extraordinary opening of the entire CAA coast just happened:
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2018/08/excess ... -with.html
an area easily in excess of 100,000 km2, it is a continuation of Northern Greenland and Ellesmere new found vast areas of open water,
the simple geophysical explanation is as follows: sea ice Central Arctic Basin sea ice pack is lighter, still with ridging and older sea ice which gather traction with the winds. Furthermore it is excessively difficult to assess all this given JAXA map being out of service and excessive cloud coverage, fluidity means vast scattering of thousands of small ice islands , when winds change direction , the melt appears to stall, so it is very improbable to make exact assessment of minima extent without these vital bits of info.

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September min.......BOE BOE in sight

Unread postby Whitefang » Mon 10 Sep 2018, 12:09:56

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tN8htnwC6LU

Paul B. on thin ice

Fourth video of a series of four on the changing dynamics of Arctic Sea-Ice Loss (melt versus export) as we tease out clues as to when the first blue-ocean event will occur. Also, what will happen after the first blue-ocean event, both in the Arctic and elsewhere? How will things proceed in subsequent years, and what impacts will humanity have to face.




At around 14 minutes...….he thinks we will have a blue arctic ocean within 4 to 5 years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFme3C9e-cs

When all the sea-ice in the Arctic has vanished from melt and transport, what will happen? This so-called Blue-Ocean-Event (BOE) in the Arctic will mean that the last bastion of ice and coldness in the Arctic will be Greenland. Thus, instead of the Center-of-Coldness or Centroid (I name it ColdTroid) being near the North Pole, as it has been in human history it will be centred over the middle of Greenland, and thus be at about 73 degrees N latitude. Thus, to first-order simplicity, one can expect the jet streams to shift their center of rotation 17 degrees from the North Pole where they are now towards Greenland. This jet stream shift, causing a decoupling from Earth’s axis of rotation, obviously has profound consequences for our global weather patterns and climate system and human civilization, and plants and animals, and, for example our ability to grow food. But hey; humans will at least be able to drill and mine the Arctic, at least those of us that are left.

Last edited by Whitefang on Mon 10 Sep 2018, 14:00:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 10 Sep 2018, 13:06:23

Great post whitefang

The rotation of earth will slow while melt water from glaciers /greenland is flowing to the equator.

Maybe earth axis to our sun will change position "faster".

M_B_S

https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-05-04/ ... -direction

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science- ... 180960226/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-scie ... F720151212
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Unread postby Whitefang » Mon 10 Sep 2018, 14:21:31

Thanks mbs, for the linkies as well.

Been a bit sloppy with them youtube's so here's the right link:

https://paulbeckwith.net/

As in the link, never give up! lol.


Everything you wanted to know about Arctic Sea-Ice Loss is in my 4 video series; all on YouTube.
My next few videos to be filmed will describe exactly what I expect to happen next.


He is a system analist, began working on abrupt CC as of 2010, with a fresh look on the whole and digging deep to find all the clues and connections, arctic monsoon here we come...…

Amazing that these massive changes are happening in our lifetime, they are awesome, terrifying yet beautifull, like Francis.
Robert S or F sitting on the beach is bound to get a bit nervous with all that energy, power of Francis rolling in.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 10 Sep 2018, 16:41:26

Not having the exact figures in front of me I have to guess that the inertia of the mass of the earth rotating compared to the mass of the ice on it's polar surface will be as little effected by the loss of that mass as a pimple being squeezed on an elephants arse. :)
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 11 Sep 2018, 06:47:08

vtsnowedin wrote:Not having the exact figures in front of me I have to guess that the inertia of the mass of the earth rotating compared to the mass of the ice on it's polar surface will be as little effected by the loss of that mass as a pimple being squeezed on an elephants arse. :)


You do not understand chaos theory? Or do you ?


https://www.sciencealert.com/the-17-equ ... of-history

Image

But OK its not your equation i understand.

Video lesson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz6gXyfzV9A
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Tue 11 Sep 2018, 06:55:26

I believe that this typo was intentional, direct from the subconscious. :-D
He is a system analist, began working on abrupt CC as of 2010, with a fresh look on the whole and digging deep to find all the clues and connections, arctic monsoon here we come...…
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 20 Sep 2018, 11:36:24

The Arctic Blue-Ocean-Event (BOE). When? Then What?


We are hurtling towards the Blue Ocean Event (BOE) in the Arctic. Nobody knows for sure when it will happen.

Paul Beckwith
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-QfKjOzfFg
************************************************************
You and I will see a BOE in our lifetime :!:

BOOOOOOOM!

No good news @ all
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 20 Sep 2018, 19:54:53

Good lord he is an awful presentor! Putting your audience to sleep is not an effective teaching technique.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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