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PeakOil is You

THE Price of Crude pt 14

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 27 Aug 2018, 18:14:03

I doubt they have 7000 still in service ready to go as they have used hundreds of them over the years.
But I take your point that if the Iranian navy took on the USN their floating on the surface life expectancy would be measured in minutes not hours or days.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 27 Aug 2018, 21:09:38

ROCKMAN wrote:“A major shipping route located between Oman and Iran where nearly one-third of the world's sea-traded oil passes through daily may become a new flashpoint after a top Iranian Navy general said Monday that the country has taken full control of the Strait of Hormuz.”

So Iran accuses the US of psychological warfare and then puts out such BS as this. Save any arguments since I won’t waste time with them: the US could sink every Iranian vessel in the S of H without putting a single member of our military at risk. We have the capability:

Yes we can sink/stink the entire world. But that is dumb. So is bombing the strait.
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The shipping lane is rather shallow. Not hard to clog with random iranian flotsam/jetsam/miscellaneous debris/boats/nets/stuff
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby GoghGoner » Tue 28 Aug 2018, 04:48:50

Sanctions go through and the global economy is running well == $100+ oil again. But, of course, the greater risk is a hard-line takeover in Iran and war in the Middle East. What would be the price of oil then? We aren't too far from witnessing that and oil is fairly cheap still.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 31 Aug 2018, 15:53:33

Goner – Scale, buddy, scale. The US Navy could sink every Iranian warship in the narrowest section and there would still e now problem for a constant stream of tankers to pass. A stream only one tanker wide: The largest tanker, the T1 class, has a beam of 223’. Allowing one ship gap between vessels 300 T1 class tankers could sail thru the narrowest section of the S of H side by side at the same time. Scale…SCALE. Remember: only need one at a time. LOL

And yes: our Navy could do this with Harpoon missiles launched way over the horizon far from any threat by Iranian weapons
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby TrueBeliever » Sun 02 Sep 2018, 22:21:05

A blast from the past:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8956

Tactics and Strategy at the Strait of Hormuz
Posted by Luis de Sousa on March 5, 2012 - 7:15pm
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 03 Sep 2018, 11:46:18

A very long and detailed article describing all of Iran’s military capabilities to disrupt shipping the S of H. All designed for relatively short range action. And not a single mention of the US capability to destroy every one of those assets by the US navy without putting a single member of our military in harm’s way. Search “Harpoon missile”: a weapon system launched from far over the horizon with the capability to destroy every Iranian warship and every onshore missile facility and every airfield. No Navy warship need approach the S of H closer then 1,500 miles to launch such attacks. The Navy has 7,000+ Harpoons in its inventory.

Given our weapon systems were designed to take on the Russians globally the Iranian forces should not be very difficult. The greater obstacle IMHO would be the potential hesitancy for the US govt to commit to such an action. Given the current leadership in the White House the POTUS may be praying for such a distraction in order to replace the current headlines.

Been done before.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby EdwinSm » Tue 04 Sep 2018, 04:12:30

Granted that the US might be able to knock the stuffing out of the Iranian's conventional military capacity, what would be the effect in price of oil and delay in shipping if the Iranians hit (and set on fire) just one oil tanker?

I think the world would see a fast spike in oil prices and a delay in oil being shipped, but how long would American reaction last before tanker owners felt it was safe to send their ships through the Straits again?

Also if the area was mined, then long range (over the horizon) missiles would not be the appropriate means of dealing with them, and mine sweepers would have to go close in.


ps. the missiles are awe inspiring, but they are not the be all and end all of warfare.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby misterno » Wed 19 Sep 2018, 14:18:42

It is impossible for oil price, production of electric cars and solar panel production to all go up at the same time. This is not possible. One of them has to lose in this competition. Judging from the last 20 years of progression and trend on electric car sales and solar panel usage, it is obvious that oil price will drop tremendously. It is not a matter of if, it is a matter of time. Simple as that.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 19 Sep 2018, 20:32:02

Just because oil use in passenger vehicles peaks, doesn't mean overall oil use peaks. The consumption profile of oil can change. When the oil crisis in the 70s hit, we saw oil fall out of favor in the power and heating sectors in many countries because of oil's price spike and the fact that there were viable alternatives. As increasing fuel efficiency and/or EVs become more viable for passenger vehicles, we can expect the oil consumption profile to shift again. We will see more oil being consumed in other sectors like petrochemicals, heavy vehicles, aviation, etc where alternatives are less viable and/or anticipated efficiency gains much smaller than with passenger vehicles.

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• Global transportation demand grows about 25 percent from 2015-2040
• Personal mobility demands continue to increase, but more efficient vehicles lead to a peak and eventual decline in light-duty vehicle (LDV) energy demand
• Growth in economic activity and personal income drives increasing trade of goods and services, leading to higher energy demand in the commercial transportation sectors
• Heavy duty growth is the largest by volume, but marine and aviation grow the largest by percentage
2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

• Global liquids demand (oil, biofuels, and other liquid fuels) increases by around 15 Mb/d, to reach 110 Mb/d by 2035.
• Oil continues to grow (0.7% p.a.), although its pace of growth is expected to slow gradually.
•In contrast, growth in non-combusted fuel use, particularly as a feedstock in petrochemicals, remains relatively robust (2.1% p.a.) in part because of its limited scope for efficiency gains.
• As a result, despite accounting for only a small fraction (6%) of current final energy use, non-combusted fuel use becomes the largest source of fossil fuel demand growth towards the end of the Outlook. Oil accounts for around two thirds of non-combusted sector’s growth, with natural gas providing much of the remainder.
BP Energy Outlook

And as for solar panels, oil is not used much in the electricity sector anymore. Back in the 70s around 20% of global electricity production came from oil. The 70s oil crises saw this percentage fall sharply. Today, only around 3% of the world's electricity comes from oil. Oil lost the battle for market share in the electricity sector a long time ago.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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