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Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 05 Aug 2018, 21:08:05

Sorry Dissident. I stand corrected
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 06 Aug 2018, 11:44:30

This is a connection I've never heard anyone make in this direct manner before.

Possible connection between U.S. tornado activity, Arctic sea ice.


University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 104253.htm

The team believes that the reduction in tornado activity boils down to how the diminishing Arctic sea ice controls the path of the jet stream. As Arctic sea ice retreats, the jet stream migrates from its traditional summer path over states like Montana and South Dakota to areas farther north, and the atmospheric conditions that are favorable for tornado formation follow suit.

“Tornadoes and their parent thunderstorms are fueled by wind shear and moisture,” Trapp said. “When the jet stream migrates north, it takes the wind shear along for the ride, but not always the moisture. So, even though thunderstorms may still develop, they tend not to generate tornadoes because one of the essential ingredients for tornado formation is now missing.”
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 06 Aug 2018, 20:52:19

Image
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 07 Aug 2018, 04:54:33

I don't see an image Tanada??
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 07 Aug 2018, 08:20:18

vtsnowedin wrote:I don't see an image Tanada??


There is a software glitch that seems to be part of the structure. To get around it quote any message where the word IMAGE appears in place of the actual image and follow the link inside the [img] text bar. Once you view the image it should automatically load when you go back to viewing the message in thread format.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Pops » Tue 07 Aug 2018, 09:51:22

Tanada wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:I don't see an image Tanada??


There is a software glitch that seems to be part of the structure. To get around it quote any message where the word IMAGE appears in place of the actual image and follow the link inside the [img] text bar. Once you view the image it should automatically load when you go back to viewing the message in thread format.

That link is reported bey goog as insecure- expired certificate.

More and more java and HTML5 sites don't allow hot linking, alternatively the poster can download the image to their own machine then upload to a image hosting site (which can also resize to 600px which is best) and use the link provided. Although you can link to a URL directly on a hosting site as well, hotlinking won't work there either.
I've been using tinypic.com for years, the best part is your pic is stored on it instead of the original site so will remain available regardless of the original (and you can go back to reference as well)

fwiw, lol
.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 07 Aug 2018, 13:14:25

Well the link is to the US Federal government image which they update weekly so if the certificate is expired you can now rail on the President for that laxity as well lol. The problem with dloading and uploading images is they are always static, and in this thread that means they are rapidly out of date. the hotlinks to NOAA website images give a more or less up to date image, as do the ones to their graphs for things like CO2 and CH4 levels in the atmosphere.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Pops » Tue 07 Aug 2018, 13:28:05

my apologies for the tip, didn't realize the image not appearing was your intention.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dissident » Tue 07 Aug 2018, 21:39:39

dohboi wrote:This is a connection I've never heard anyone make in this direct manner before.

Possible connection between U.S. tornado activity, Arctic sea ice.


University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 104253.htm

The team believes that the reduction in tornado activity boils down to how the diminishing Arctic sea ice controls the path of the jet stream. As Arctic sea ice retreats, the jet stream migrates from its traditional summer path over states like Montana and South Dakota to areas farther north, and the atmospheric conditions that are favorable for tornado formation follow suit.

“Tornadoes and their parent thunderstorms are fueled by wind shear and moisture,” Trapp said. “When the jet stream migrates north, it takes the wind shear along for the ride, but not always the moisture. So, even though thunderstorms may still develop, they tend not to generate tornadoes because one of the essential ingredients for tornado formation is now missing.”


There is also the change in blocking event intensity and frequency. When the zonal wind has a high meridional meander (blocked regime) you will not get the effective combination of convective super-cells with strong winds at the top. So the chimney effect that drives tornado eddy formation is suppressed.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 09 Aug 2018, 09:28:50

https://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2018 ... l?spref=fb
CLIMATE CAST
Margo goes over the latest in melting Arctic sea ice, global methane, sulfur dioxide, ozone, carbon dioxide levels and much more.

Sea surface temperatures today.

There are very few areas left where the temperature is below freezing
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 09 Aug 2018, 17:12:24

onlooker wrote:https://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2018/08/arctic-sea-ice-update-08082018.html?spref=fb
CLIMATE CAST
Margo goes over the latest in melting Arctic sea ice, global methane, sulfur dioxide, ozone, carbon dioxide levels and much more.

Sea surface temperatures today.

There are very few areas left where the temperature is below freezing

It is the melt season encase you forgot. It is not is it" above freezing" but how much is it above freezing and how many days multiplied by how much it is above the historical average that counts. And then you have to compare to the cyclical variations that have always existed.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 13:20:30

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 13 Aug 2018, 19:23:24

well above 1.5 degrees C (1).png
well above 1.5 degrees C (1).png (25.33 KiB) Viewed 1617 times

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/0 ... t-now.html

The IPCC appears to be strongly downplaying the amount of global warming that has already occurred and that looks set to eventuate over the next decade or so, according to a leaked draft of the IPCC 'Special Report on 1.5°C above pre-industrial'. The 'First Order Draft of the Summary for Policy Makers' estimates that the global mean temperature reached approximately 1°C above pre-industrial levels around 2017/2018.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 18 Aug 2018, 11:49:06

According to the good folks over at asif, "The ESS [East Siberian Sea] lost 20% of its area in 3 days"
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Saved by the bell

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 18 Aug 2018, 14:25:33

For whom the bell tolls…..

I think we are set for a blue ocean next summer if the coming winter further deteriorates the sea ice. Sea surface temp. are returning to a bit above normal thank God, this planet is in a flux with all that heat moving North. Arctic air is still warm above the entire ocean.
But we'll make it through this year, another gift from above.


https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

after declining rapidly through July, sea ice extent decline slowed during the first two weeks of August. A new record September minimum is highly unlikely. Our 2018 projection for the sea ice minimum extent falls between the fourth and ninth lowest in the 40-year satellite record. Two NSIDC scientists are studying ice and ocean conditions in the western Arctic aboard an icebreaker.



However, current ice conditions appear more broken up and likely thinner, and over the past couple of weeks, offshore winds have succeeded in pushing ice off of the coast.


The most interesting feature thus far has been dirty ice in the midst of bright white ice (see Figure 4a). It is unclear if these dirty ice floes are a result of ice algae, dust, or soot deposits from this summer’s forest fires. The team has also been rewarded with sightings of polar bears (see Figure 4b).

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 18 Aug 2018, 16:08:37

Also, wf, we seem to be heading toward another El Nino, though the effects of that in the Arctic are sometime delayed by a year.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 18 Aug 2018, 16:39:14

Can I ask anybody what immediate dramatic effects can we expect to occur when the blue ocean event does happen?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby M_B_S » Sat 18 Aug 2018, 16:41:04

onlooker wrote:Can I ask anybody what immediate dramatic effects can we expect to occur when the blue ocean event does happen?

Image

Yes

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sun 19 Aug 2018, 04:21:20

when analyzing seasonal differences of sea ice retreat, Eisenman et al. (2011, p. 5332) found that “some GCMs become seasonally ice free during the 1900–2100 simulation period. This leads to winter ice cover retreating faster than summer ice cover after the latter reaches zero.” Moreover, abrupt Arctic winter sea ice loss was recently detected in model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) (Drijfhout et al. 2015). CMIP5 provides results from current comprehensive climate models and allows us to compare their response to anthropogenic forcing (Taylor et al. 2012).

The most striking winter sea ice decline occurs in the Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, MPI-ESM (Giorgetta et al. 2013; Notz et al. 2013), where an ice area of several million square kilometers disappears within only a few years (Fig. 1). Winton (2006, 2008) showed that in the version of MPI-ESM that he analyzed, this transition is accompanied by an increased ice–albedo feedback, concluding that this feedback is responsible for the high rate of winter sea ice loss. The ice–albedo feedback plays a role for winter sea ice because the seasonal cycle of sea ice area lags the insolation cycle by approximately three months. Thus, ice volume and area are near their annual maximum when the sun rises in March. Li et al. (2013) further speculated that a convective cloud feedback proposed by Abbot and Tziperman (2008) could also play a role for the winter sea ice loss in MPI-ESM: In an Arctic Ocean without winter sea ice, the warmer and wetter conditions could trigger the formation of convective clouds, resulting in enhanced downwelling longwave radiation at the surface and reduced cooling to space. This warming due to the cloud radiative effect would then help to keep the Arctic ice-free.

In this study we propose a different explanation for the abrupt sea ice loss in MPI-ESM that also explains the sensitive Arctic winter sea ice area in the other models: the freezing temperature imposes a threshold for the formation of winter ice. Where the ocean no longer cools to the freezing temperature in winter, sea ice can essentially disappear from one winter to the next. If the basinwide conditions are spatially homogeneous enough, this mechanism can result in a rapid sea ice loss in a large area.

In the following, we first show that Arctic winter sea ice area is more sensitive to warming than summer sea ice area in CMIP5 models. We then outline the essence of our explanation using an idealized ice-thickness distribution (ITD) model that resolves many thickness classes in contrast to the slab model by Eisenman and Wettlaufer (2009). To show that the mechanism is indeed active in comprehensive climate models, we show consistent sea ice area and thickness changes in these models. Thereafter, we present additional simulations with MPI-ESM, showing that neither surface albedo nor radiative cloud feedbacks can explain the abrupt sea ice loss in this model. Furthermore, we demonstrate with a simple box model, capturing the essence of the ice-area parameterization in MPI-ESM, that our thermodynamic argument is sufficient to explain the abrupt ice loss. We finally argue why other feedbacks are unlikely to play a dominant role also in other complex climate models and discuss important differences between the Arctic and the Southern Hemisphere.

link

It is quite possible that abrupt sea ice loss will occur due to it's failure to sufficiently form in the winter and will not to survive the following melt season.

This seems the most likely scenario if you think about it. A winter where ice forms late (we have already seen that), and remains thin and vulnerable heading into the next summer.
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Heat from tha gulf....

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 19 Aug 2018, 06:37:37

dohboi wrote:Also, wf, we seem to be heading toward another El Nino, though the effects of that in the Arctic are sometime delayed by a year.


Plus all that heat near Nova Scotia from the gulf, that takes time to move Northeast, under that cold surfacewater southeast of Greenland. Could arrive at the Barentz sea, Northcape Norway in a few months, just in time for the wintermadness :-D

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/o ... 950,41.472

Whopping six degrees Celcius!!!!!
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