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Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 09 Aug 2018, 17:52:01

pstarr wrote:Atmospheric CO2 increases have leveled out in recent years.


What kind of nonsense is that? We touched 400 ppm in 2013, crossed that threshold permanently in 2016, never to return, and breached 410 ppm just one year later. Shortly we will pass 410 ppm permanently.

pbrain more like it.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Pops » Thu 09 Aug 2018, 17:55:02

I'm not big on models, I like this one tho :)

but even if correct the story ends the same:

study wrote:Without effective reduction of global CO2 emissions, however, future climate change remains a stark reality.

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13428
Linked article & Berkeley Lab wrote:“Unfortunately, this increase is nowhere near enough to stop climate change,” says Keenan, adding that their results answer questions and pose new ones. “We’ve shown the increase in terrestrial carbon uptake is happening, and with a plausible explanation why. But we don’t know exactly where the carbon sink is increasing the most, how long this increase will last, or what it means for the future of Earth’s climate.”

http://newscenter.lbl.gov/2016/11/08/at ... co2-pause/
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby GHung » Thu 09 Aug 2018, 18:12:19

From my friend pstar:

Image

ghung, your charts are dishonest and incomplete. 1200 ppm is actually historically low 300ppm or less is unhealthy. Current levels are great for people, plants and the planet.


A number of things could have produced that growth rate curve, like a big fat recession in the middle of it. But NOAA and the EPA may be trying to pull our legs, eh? Anyway, with our locally cooler temps and above normal rainfall this summer, things are sucking up a lot of carbon as I type.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby drwater » Thu 09 Aug 2018, 19:37:59

PStarr,

Apologies for getting snarky. There is already too much snarkiness on this site. Here where I live because the nights have been so warm and we have had continuous smoke and ash for about 30 days, it kinda makes one grumpy. Things are so different than 40 years ago, it's hard to believe anyone around here doubts global warming. California average nighttime summer temperatures are up 6 degrees F over the last 40 years.

Look at the chart drwater. Read the link drwater. Atmospheric CO2 increases have leveled out in recent years, as the effects of CO2 fertilization upon earth's plants has begun to ramp up. Just the beginning of GAIA's happy nuturing love for us. It will be wonderful :)


Yes, that's a good thing, BUT "increases have levelled out" in the article you quote only means that the rate of increase has levelled out. Concentrations are still increasing, which means total CO2 emitted (from people, bacteria, everything) still exceeds CO2 sinks. The large amounts of anthropogenic CO2 added still exceed any increase in uptake by sinks such as plants and oceans despite your previous posts stating the contrary.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 09 Aug 2018, 21:08:03

drwater wrote:PStarr,

Apologies for getting snarky. There is already too much snarkiness on this site. Here where I live because the nights have been so warm and we have had continuous smoke and ash for about 30 days, it kinda makes one grumpy. Things are so different than 40 years ago, it's hard to believe anyone around here doubts global warming. California average nighttime summer temperatures are up 6 degrees F over the last 40 years.

No doubt climate has changed. I have long been scared of it, especially having lived through the last California drought. Now I just don't think man/womankind and our emissions have much to do with it.

drwater wrote:
Look at the chart drwater. Read the link drwater. Atmospheric CO2 increases have leveled out in recent years, as the effects of CO2 fertilization upon earth's plants has begun to ramp up. Just the beginning of GAIA's happy nuturing love for us. It will be wonderful :)


Yes, that's a good thing, BUT "increases have levelled out" in the article you quote only means that the rate of increase has levelled out. Concentrations are still increasing, which means total CO2 emitted (from people, bacteria, everything) still exceeds CO2 sinks. The large amounts of anthropogenic CO2 added still exceed any increase in uptake by sinks such as plants and oceans despite your previous posts stating the contrary.

The greatest sink of all, the planets living matter has taken up and will continue to take up CO2 in increasing amounts. We have several historic measures of this; the above NASA study of the past 30 years. And an equally important one measuring carbonyl sulfide over millennia.

The ratio of CO2 entombed in fossil fuels to free CO2 and CO2 already in the planets vegetation is minuscule. We could burn many orders of magnitude more coal and oil then exists in total on the planet, and the released carbon would be a tiny fraction of the carbon sunk in the planets oceans, grasslands and forests.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 11:17:07

pstarr wrote:The ratio of CO2 entombed in fossil fuels to free CO2 and CO2 already in the planets vegetation is minuscule. We could burn many orders of magnitude more coal and oil then exists in total on the planet, and the released carbon would be a tiny fraction of the carbon sunk in the planets oceans, grasslands and forests.


True enough.

But the greenhouse effect is a direct function of the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

And that value is clearly going up, increasing the greenhouse effect and causing global warming.

You do get that the concentration of CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere, don't you?

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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 12:38:29

The earth is way more complex then silly human models that attempt to describe it. No one expected the magnitude of the global greening (itself a consequence of additional CO2) we are experiencing.

Neither you nor I, nor climate scientists and ecologists have the faintest idea of the effect that the increased vegetation uptake of co2 will have on atmospheric co2 levels. We do know that the additional vegetation already laid down (by that greening effect) dwarfs all the fozzilized vegetation we have burned or will burn as fossil fuels.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 12:56:39

The warming would perhaps be happening regardless. I am no longer confident it is man made or even confident it is net warming? Though we certainly are seeing more extreme weather.

Climate scientists versed in theoretical physics minutae and stewing in impossible climate models, were never trained nor adapted to an ecological understand of the planet. Not a single one among then is ready to admit or even consider that the 10 year warming hiatus was/is a function of that additional green vegetation.

We know that one continent-sized forest has been added . . . in net . . . to the planet's surface in 30 years. Those trees ae contain an order of magnitude more carbon than was burned in fossil fuels during the same period.

The CO2 that grew those trees must have come from somewhere.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Pops » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 13:02:40

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7212
A single season of drought in the Amazon rainforest can reduce the forest's carbon dioxide absorption for years after the rains return, according to a new study published in the journal Nature. This is the first study to quantify the long-term legacy of an Amazon drought.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby dbruning » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 13:21:29

The greening is definitely a good thing, but the CO2 concentrations are still going up.

My main worry is that with the drought and fires we're currently experiencing, a lot of those trees and vegetation may end up giving back their locked up CO2.

My second worry is that even with the greening the CO2 levels are going up, where is that extra CO2 coming from? Could it be all the methane bubbling up and breaking down into CO2?
Last edited by dbruning on Fri 10 Aug 2018, 13:23:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 13:21:29

Pops wrote:https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7212
A single season of drought in the Amazon rainforest can reduce the forest's carbon dioxide absorption for years after the rains return, according to a new study published in the journal Nature. This is the first study to quantify the long-term legacy of an Amazon drought.

Quite possible. From the NASA study:
The GLASS LAI data shows
the most extensive statistically significant greening (Mann–Kendall
test, p<0.05 ) over 50% of vegetated lands, followed by GLOBMAP
LAI (43%) and GIMMS LAI3g (25%). All three LAI data sets also
consistently show a decreasing LAI trend (browning) over less than
4% of global vegetated land—these are observed in northwest North
America and central South America. Analyses of the changes in
observed maximum LAI also show similar widespread greening
trends (Supplementary Section 8).


Virtually the entire planet is greening with the exception of central south america and where I live. Oh moan :? :lol: 8)
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Pops » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 13:34:43

They have a wad of citations/refs, I can't get to many, (prolly wouldn't understand them anyway, LOL)
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 13:57:59

Pops wrote:They have a wad of citations/refs, I can't get to many, (prolly wouldn't understand them anyway, LOL)

Here you go, for the umpteenth time. Greening of the Earth and its drivers There is no possible way to debate the conclusions of this journal article. An international team of 32 authors from 24 institutions in eight countries. 34 years of NASA data. Peer reviewed in Nature Journal
Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO2 fertilization eects explain 70% of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9%), climate change (8%) and land cover change (LCC) (4%).


Why is this good news, happy news is roundly ignored? It made a difference in my life. Way less stress, more able to appreciate that other approaching sh@t storm lol
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 14:04:44

pstarr wrote:Why is this good news, happy news is roundly ignored?


Good news is relative. You seem to have difficulty accepting that the world remains well-supplied with oil.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 14:09:59

GHung wrote:Yes. That's why atmospheric CO2 levels are increasing. Because increased greening is dwarfing "all the carbon ever previously locked up (and recently combusted)".

Pstar's Increased Greening/Dwarfing Graph
Image

I'm sure you can explain that, P.

Sure. Volcanic gases.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 14:39:44

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:Why is this good news, happy news is roundly ignored?


Good news is relative. You seem to have difficulty accepting that the world remains well-supplied with oil.

So now you can stop complaining about global warming and peak oil.

Sad for you :cry:
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Pops » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 16:15:41

pstarr wrote:Why is this good news, happy news is roundly ignored? It made a difference in my life. Way less stress, more able to appreciate that other approaching sh@t storm lol

Thanks for the link.
It's great news. Just like the umpteen hundred instances of bad news on the topic that I took with a grain of salt. They are models, observations, studies; not the living word of Gaia. I mean I like the idea of Gaia as self-healing system; but I also like the idea of a loving god that cares if my football team wins, doesn't mean I believe it.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 17:27:58

pstarr wrote:We do know that the additional vegetation already laid down (by that greening effect) dwarfs all the fozzilized vegetation we have burned or will burn as fossil fuels.


oceans and land plants remove about 45 percent of the CO2 emitted by human activities each year. And the amount of CO2 that’s removed has more than doubled in the past 50 years. With plants, which need carbon dioxide to grow, that’s because CO2 increases photosynthesis. So more CO2 in the atmosphere means plants also absorb more CO2. But that doesn’t mean we’re fine pumping the greenhouse gas into the air. In fact, more CO2 means warmer temperatures, and warmer temperatures cause ecosystems — plants, trees, and even bacteria in soil — to release more CO2 back into atmosphere. So it’s a give and take.

Though the findings seem like good news, they’re not really, Keenan says. The last two years have been the hottest on record, which means that the magic the plants were doing has probably already ended. The CO2 plants store is also not gone forever, Keenan says. As more ecosystems are in danger because of climate change, more plants and trees will die and will rerelease that carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. There’s no escape. And the only solution is to reduce the amounts of CO2 we emit in the first place.

“The growth of CO2 in the atmosphere continues to grow. And until we really cut our emissions, that’s what’s going to continue to happen,” Keenan says. “So plants are helping us out, they’re buying us time, but ultimately it’s up to us.”
For 12 years, plants bought us extra time on climate change

pstarr wrote:Why is this good news, happy news is roundly ignored? It made a difference in my life. Way less stress, more able to appreciate that other approaching sh@t storm lol
It is good news the global greening is slowing down the effects of human co2 emissions. But the planet is only absorbing half of the co2 we are emitting. That means climate change cannot be dismissed just because global greening is occurring.

CO2 removals by natural sinks
Of the total emissions from human activities during the period 2007-2016, about 46% accumulated in the atmosphere, 24% in the ocean and 30% on land. During this period, the size of the natural sinks grew in response to the increasing emissions, though year-to-year variability of that growth is large. The strength of the 2016 ocean CO2 sink was above the decadal average and the land sink below average. Both trends are consistent with a positive phase of El Niño. The total estimated sources do not match the total estimated sinks, i.e., the carbon imbalance. This imbalance reflects the gap in our understanding and results from the uncertainties from all budget components.

Atmospheric CO2
The annual growth rate of atmospheric CO2 was 6.1±0.2 GtC (22.4 GtCO2 yr-1) in 2016, corresponding to an increase of 2.89±0.09 parts per million. This is well above the 2007-2016 average of 4.7±0.1 GtC yr-1 (17.2 GtCO2 yr-1) and reflects the large interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentration associated with the positive face of El Niño. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8±0.10 ppm averaged over 2016, and the atmosphere is projected to accumulate an additional 5.3 GtC in 2017.

Cumulative Carbon Emissions
The cumulative carbon emissions are the sum of the total CO2 emitted during a given period of time. Total cumulative emissions from 1870 to 2016 were 420±20 GtC (1539 GtCO2) from fossil fuels and industry, and 180±60 GtC (660 GtCO2) from land use change. The total of 600±65 GtC was partitioned among the atmosphere (245±5 GtC), ocean (145±20 GtC), and the land (190±45 GtC). Land-use change represents about 31% of cumulative emissions over 1870–2016, coal 32%, oil 25%, gas 10%, and others 3%.
Global Carbon Budget
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 19:53:39

Pops wrote:
pstarr wrote:Why is this good news, happy news is roundly ignored? It made a difference in my life. Way less stress, more able to appreciate that other approaching sh@t storm lol

Thanks for the link.
It's great news. Just like the umpteen hundred instances of bad news on the topic that I took with a grain of salt. They are models, observations, studies; not the living word of Gaia. I mean I like the idea of Gaia as self-healing system; but I also like the idea of a loving god that cares if my football team wins, doesn't mean I believe it.

Wrong. Not a model. Empirical data collected and downloaded from landsat satellites.

Pictures of a greening planet.

The productivity of the planet's terrestrial biosphere, on the whole, has been increasing with time, revealing a great greening of the Earth that extends throughout the entire globe.

 Satellite-based analyses of net terrestrial primary productivity (NPP) reveal an increase of around 6-13% since the 1980s.

There is no empirical evidence to support the model-based claim that future carbon uptake by plants will diminish on a global scale due to rising temperatures. In fact, just the opposite situation has been observed in the real world.

 Earth's land surfaces were a net source of CO2-carbon to the atmosphere until about 1940. From 1940 onward, however, the terrestrial biosphere has become, in the mean, an increasingly greater sink for CO2-carbon.

Furthermore warmer temperatures contribute, not detract from plant growth.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 10 Aug 2018, 20:40:11

pstarr wrote:Furthermore warmer temperatures contribute, not detract from plant growth.
Warmer temperatures also result in plants releasing more c02.

There is no empirical evidence to support the model-based claim that future carbon uptake by plants will diminish on a global scale due to rising temperatures. In fact, just the opposite situation has been observed in the real world.
This is incorrect:

A study involving the Australian National University, Western Sydney University, and centres around the world has found plants release more carbon dioxide through their respiration. And as global temperatures rise, scientists say the output of carbon dioxide by plants will accelerate.

"What will happen in the future will be that those rates of carbon released by plants will increase as the world gets warmer, and it will have an impact on how much carbon is stored in vegetation, how much accumulates in the atmosphere in the future." The study examined about 1,000 plant species in a range of climate extremes, to determine how much carbon dioxide is released in various scenarios. Researchers said plants could also see a declining ability to absorb carbon dioxide currently in the atmosphere through photosynthesis, and that carbon flow models and budget projections would need to be altered in response to the findings.
Plants release up to 30 per cent more CO2 than previously thought

Twenty years of field studies reveal that as the Earth has gotten warmer, plants and microbes in the soil have given off more carbon dioxide.

The Opposite of Photosynthesis
Plants are famous for photosynthesis, the process that stores energy in sugars built from carbon dioxide and water. Photosynthesis produces the oxygen we breathe as a byproduct. But plants also use oxygen and release carbon dioxide in the same manner that people and animals do. Soil respiration includes carbon dioxide from both plants and soil microbes, and is a major component of the global carbon cycle.

Researchers found that the total amount of carbon dioxide being emitted from soil in 2008 was more than in 1989.
Even soil feels the heat: Soils release more carbon dioxide as globe warms

more CO2 means warmer temperatures, and warmer temperatures cause ecosystems — plants, trees, and even bacteria in soil — to release more CO2 back into atmosphere.
For 12 years, plants bought us extra time on climate change
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