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Booming Economic Growth?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 06 Aug 2018, 10:24:12

Pops wrote:Yeah, you are quite the logical visionary amongst the doomers, lol.

It's interesting how people perceive things. The fast crash doomers tend to label me a corny, since I don't buy into the "doom is right in our face any day now" sort of mantra.

I do admit to being a long term doomer (unless humanity changes its spots) due to things like limits to growth / finite resources, AGW (an example of that, IMO), etc. I wish that weren't the case, but data is data and trends are trends.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 06 Aug 2018, 10:47:53

Just giving you a hard time...
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 06 Aug 2018, 13:51:53

Pops wrote:Just giving you a hard time...


Ah. Sometimes my sarcasm meter jumps when it shouldn't, and other times sarcasm completely escapes me. :oops:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby Cog » Tue 07 Aug 2018, 06:11:33

We know.
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 07 Aug 2018, 13:36:19

Cog wrote:We know.

Glad the person who never says anything unreasonable is up to speed on such things. :razz:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 13 Aug 2018, 14:57:24

Bottom line:

The numbers are daunting if not shocking: $12.3 trillion of money printing, nearly $10 trillion in negative-yielding global bonds, 654 interest rate cuts since Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008.

Those actions have resulted in global growth in advanced economies that likely won't eclipse 2 percent this year, inflation levels that remain well below targets and a burgeoning global debt problem that remains unresolved, withstood only through the lowest interest rates the world has seen in 5,000 years
.


https://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/13/12-tril ... -this.html
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Aug 2018, 15:10:55

onlooker wrote:Bottom line:

The numbers are daunting if not shocking: $12.3 trillion of money printing, nearly $10 trillion in negative-yielding global bonds, 654 interest rate cuts since Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008.

Those actions have resulted in global growth in advanced economies that likely won't eclipse 2 percent this year, inflation levels that remain well below targets and a burgeoning global debt problem that remains unresolved, withstood only through the lowest interest rates the world has seen in 5,000 years
.


https://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/13/12-tril ... -this.html

So a 26 month old article, which had bad growth forecasts (too low, so naturally you'd gravitate toward them, even after the fact). And things like the inflation rate, interest rates, etc. have changed, and continue to rise.

So what's your point? Just more FUD, apparently.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 13 Aug 2018, 16:03:10

The doomers are daunted. They can't find anything relevant to say so they dig up 2 year old articles. To make it more scary, they bold it. At least this time they didn't feel the need for a giant font or use the extra scary red font.
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 14 Aug 2018, 18:34:45

10 Numbers That Prove That America’s Current Financial Condition Is A Horror Show
Economic growth that is produced by continually increasing amounts of debt is not a positive thing.


http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... orror-show
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 14 Aug 2018, 19:54:40

the ratio of debt-to-gross domestic product fell for the fifth consecutive quarter as the world’s economic growth accelerated. The ratio is now around 317.8 percent of GDP, or 4 percentage points below the high in the third quarter of 2016
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 10:32:03

onlooker wrote:10 Numbers That Prove That America’s Current Financial Condition Is A Horror Show
Economic growth that is produced by continually increasing amounts of debt is not a positive thing.


http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... orror-show

Looking at the 10 year chart, US household debt is running along at right about the lowest it's been in the past decade.

Could it be lower? Sure. Is it a "horror show"? Not remotely close.

But don't tell fast crash doomers. Economic facts that don't conform to their constant bad predictions are things they just can't deal with. :roll:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... ebt-to-gdp

...

And let's look at the source. The author of this "collapse" blog Onlooker is citing is selling gold coins, selling books about preparing for end times, promoting the Christian Rapture, etc. Not exactly unbiased. Not exactly useful or accurate when as always, "the end" isn't right in our face.

But Onlooker is so desperate to bleat "the end" and get attention constantly that we get material of THIS (lack of) quality cited by him frequently.

Dude. Get a hobby. Chess and fishing are nice.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby GHung » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 11:26:15

Is Dr. Copper still good at diagnosing economic health?

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https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/copper.aspx?timeframe=1y

Doctor Copper

Among all base metals, it is copper that gained its reputation as a reliable barometer of global economic health, earning it the moniker, “Dr. Copper.” It is most widely used both by emerging and continuously growing economies.

Copper is the only base metal that is used in all aspects of industrialization. It is essential for electrical wiring, plumbing, automobile, aerodynamics, appliance, and radiators—in short, it is an indispensable material in engineering, architecture, and industrial design.

By simply watching its price and assessing how a specific economy is doing with copper, analysts could predict certain circumstances that might happen not only to a specific country’s economy but also to the entire global economy.

Copper demand is an effectual economic health indicator because rising metal prices mean growth while falling prices translates to an economic slowdown. In 2008, it would be noteworthy to state that economists, market experts, and even journalists clung to copper prices to help the world prepare for the forthcoming global recession. ....
https://born2invest.com/articles/copper ... barometer/


BREAKING DOWN 'Doctor Copper'

Doctor Copper, who is really a concept rather than a person, is often cited by market and commodity analysts as having a strong ability to assess overall economic well-being through the price of copper because of the metal's wide-ranging application in industrial production and electrical equipment. The percentage of global copper production consumed by each sector is estimated by the Copper Development Association (CDA) to be around 65% electrical and 25% industrial with the last 10% used in transportation and other areas.

This makes copper prices a good leading indicator of the economic cycle. For example, if orders for copper are being canceled or delayed, the price will drop. This can be a leading indicator that economic recession is at hand. Conversely, if orders for copper are rising, the price will go up. This can be a leading indicator that industrial jobs are increasing and the economy remains healthy.

A study by the Dutch bank ABN AMRO published in 2014 examined the correlation between copper prices and a number of measures of global economic activity. The statistical analysis shows a strong correlation between copper prices and world trade, regional GDP growth in China, the U.S. and EU, as well as oil and gold prices.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doctor-copper.asp


On the other hand:

Doubts on copper as indicator

You can’t please everyone they say, and this goes for copper as well. There are entities claiming that copper’s strength as an indicator is now a thing of the past.

Among these few is Brinker Capital senior portfolio manager Andrew Rosenberger who said that correlations have certainly broken down between equities and copper prices. This is because data on the metal prices and US equities show a few disparities that could create misleading analyses harmful to the global economy.

The disparity is directed to the US equities’ rising prices and growing economy amid falling copper prices. Following the Dr. Copper system, falling copper prices translates to weakening the economy and bearish prices. With this, Rosenberger concluded that it could be high time to give up on copper as a dependable economic barometer.

This may be an isolated case, but MarketWatch flippantly said that copper “deserves a malpractice suit” for such. But most analysts, economic experts, and news agencies still depend on copper’s market performance to understand the health of global economy ........


Anyway, all metals have been taking a hit lately, maybe due to trade wars and tariffs? With ego-fools like Erdogan and Trump raising tariffs over a freaking preacher who couldn't mind his own business, seems anything can happen these days. The global rise of populist autocrats, who'll cut of their noses to spite their faces just to make a point with their supporters, probably doesn't bode well for global economics going forward.
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby Pops » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 12:02:25

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Looking at the 10 year chart, US household debt is running along at right about the lowest it's been in the past decade.

Not sure which chart you're referring to?
How 'bout this one that the doom blog points to?
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby Cog » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 16:00:30

Total consumer debt will rise with rising population. A more accurate chart would per capita debt. US population in 1995 was 263 million. In 2018 its 328 million.
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 16:38:28

Pops wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Looking at the 10 year chart, US household debt is running along at right about the lowest it's been in the past decade.

Not sure which chart you're referring to?
How 'bout this one that the doom blog points to?
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I should have said household debt to GDP, as the chart my link in the post you responded to points to does.

If one clicks on the 10Y (10 year) choice below the link I provided, that shows a 10 year history of the US Households Debt to GDP. IMO, the point I made is crystal clear, I just omitted the words "to GDP". My bad for any confusion on that.

As Cog said, since the US population grows significantly over time, household debt to GDP is a far better metric for comparing the magnitude of debt, re manageability.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby Pops » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 19:28:05

Outcast_Searcher wrote:the US population grows significantly over time,.

Just eyeballing the one I posted, the increase in debt is 60% over the last 7-8 years
By contrast the population grows something less than 1%/year,
GDP maybe 3% avg = 27% in 8 years compounded (nominally)

Is this the chart you were pointing to?
Image

Doesn't look to be at the low end of the range unless the range is the last bubble.
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby Pops » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 20:04:06

I'm an economic doomer, have been since my days in construction. I've been self employed many years, I work for businesses, in the last recession if I hadn't hunkered down early I'd have been wiped out. Just the way it is, owners take care of themselves first, then their employees, I'm sucking the hind tit and get kicked off first, lol.

That's not talking "economic collapse" that's just the "business cycle." Collapse is a different thing. I read the Tipping Points paper like it was a girly magazine, but, the thing that folks always forget is the system is self-organizing. Gail talks about that like it is a bad thing, a big matchstick edifice just waiting to fall.

I look at it as a strength. Yeah, the tower could fall, nearly froze up in '08 when everyone decided no one was trustworthy —probably the only sensible week in the last 100 years. But again, the system organizes itself: one node needs a widget, another has a Widget Combinator 3000, another a rickshaw with widget rack... voilá! All the various parties need is something to represent value to facilitate the trade.

In any such scenario I'd be kicked off the tit first — as usual. But I own a home and don't have any debt except property tax and tho I no longer grow food I might get by for a while until things sorta regenerated.

---
The economy is doing great for the owners, extra-double-great in fact. Interest rates are still ridiculously low (not unsecured consumer rates of course) they (the owners) just got a huge tax break, still wage growth is low. There are so many balls in the air I'm thinking the talking heads have even less idea where things are headed than they normally do. Tariffs, trade deals, busted alliances, just the daily chaos— I'd almost think the riots and whatall in the 60's were less distracting than the daily sturm und drang today.
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby marmico » Thu 16 Aug 2018, 05:39:47

US households sure are hungry and thirsty in the summer of 2018 which is consistent with a booming economy.

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Consumer credit relative to after tax income is at record highs due to student loans.

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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby GHung » Thu 16 Aug 2018, 07:53:11

marmico wrote:US households sure are hungry and thirsty in the summer of 2018 which is consistent with a booming economy.

Image

Consumer credit relative to after tax income is at record highs due to student loans.

Image


So Americans are getting fatter and our college students are moving into the work force already burdened with a house's worth of debt. Bodes well for the economy somehow, I guess.
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Re: Booming Economic Growth?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 16 Aug 2018, 10:42:27

marmico wrote:Consumer credit relative to after tax income is at record highs due to student loans.

And yet, look how little that ratio has changed since '2000. With all the yelling, crying, you'd think it was a catastrophe.

While I was still working, I used to wonder how it was that in my top 100 city, with the largest state university (a "college town"), so many college students are driving around in nice cars, eating at nice restaurants (the nicest ones I went to - earning an upper middle class salary), living in nice apartments, wearing fancy clothes, etc.

I knew mommy and daddy were paying for part of that. And that jobs would pay for a little of that.

But it turns out that good old student loans can be had for MUCH more than college expenses. So many students live it up while in college -- and then claim it's a catastrophe and that taxpayers should fund that later -- when it gets inconvenient to pay it off.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephendas ... 887df20caf

When I went to college from '77 to '81, I lived like a poor man, because I WAS a poor man. And that was perfectly normal and fine. (There were "rich" kids on campus funded by rich parents who liked to show off, but that was the exception, not the rule.)

Part of the trend in taking on debt isn't so much a sign the economy is "in trouble" -- it's a long term trend toward fiscal irresponsibility. To me, that's a character flaw. Like, say, knowing AGW is destroying the world, but collectively, we aren't willing to do much (if anything) MEANINGFUL about it is a character flaw.

Now, I'm sure the far left can tell me why as a taxpayer, I should be happy to pay for the Mercedes, fancy meals, clothes, apartments, etc. for Junior or Tiffany, on top of their Ivy Leage tuition, even though partying and earning a degree in drama or "Women's studies" was what they chose, instead of a solid STEM degree which would help PAY for their chosen lifestyle. After all, it's "not their fault" they make lots of poor economic choices. :roll:

I would be OK with helping with the interest on TUITION only loans that help kids without family money get through school in "real" degrees, if they get good grades. Once they have a job, I think they should pay the loan off though.

But that would be about balance, compromise, and requiring personal responsibility on the part of the students. Somehow, many would deem that "unfair".
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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