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Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby EdwinSm » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 04:11:25

According to the video (see link bellow) Ted Bauman believes that soon we will see a:
A 70% Stock Market Crash … a 50% Real Estate Meltdown, and Unemployment Will Triple…

According to the rather long winded and repetitive talk in the video (which I admit I did not watch to the end, stopping after he started promoting his own books), the big run up in the stock market since 2014 has been almost entirely fueled by stock buy backs, a practice that was supposed to have lead to the 1929 crash and which was made illegal. In the rush to deregulate this practice has been made legal and lead to the average wages of the CEOs of the top companies going up over a thousand times what it was before stock buy backs were made legal again.

[Own comment: so far this sounds reasonable, what comes next is very much a question mark. However, we will only need to wait a week to see if it is true. :roll: ]

Ted Bauman, seems to believe that there is a secret meeting planned for the 1st August which will rubber-stamp a move to make stock buy-backs illegal again. Without this money (claimed to have been $5.1 trillion over the last few years) being pumped into the system he expects a massive fall in stock prices with the Dow falling at least to the 8 000 mark (if it fell by the same % as the 1929 crash it should get to the 2 500 mark).


Warning: the video and promotion page linked from it seem to be geared to get you to sign up to his monthly newsletter and 'investment plan' for a bargain price of $47 (instead of $199 a year). It looks like he is trying to cash in before any crash, but I am not going to take that bait. :-D


Promotional Link: https://pro.banyanhill.com/p/CRASH/LSCEU705/?h=true

Anyone else hearing these rumours?
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 10:32:42

1). This is heavily advertised on the net from various sites with financial information.

2). Banyan Hill is one of the more notorious outfits for spreading rumors about absolute nonsense to try and bait Cassandras to buy their "newsletter". It's far from the only one, but it's pretty far up there in terms of mindless drivel.

3). This is the only place I've seen anything like this nonsense (didn't watch the video, just laughed at the ad since with these clowns, it's been the same kind of thing for many years).

4). Let's just pretend that anyone could make such a prediction with any amount of reliability. There would be no need for the author to be able to predict August 1. If they could just predict a month range, they could short, say, the S&P 500 with put options for August, and make a GIGANTIC FORTUNE. No need to hawk news letters that spew nonsense decade after decade. If they could be right just half or a quarter of the time within a month, they could make many $billions over time with the right option trades.

...

Now, also at the risk of using logic, let's assume the rumor and the meeting about the stock buyback meeting is true and is August 1. Let's assume it's with credible people and announced to the public that day.

a). The market might decline a few percent or so in consternation, but 70%? It only declined about 50% in 2008/9 when it literally looked like the entire system might go up in flames, or that at least a global depression lasting years could well be in the cards.

b). So the business community is going to go along with this (led by corporations)? Congress? Trump? I don't think so.

c). Even if someone TRIES this, it will be immediately challenged via a lawsuit, which will take years to get through if it goes to the SCOTUS.

Logic. It's a thing.

If you want doomer porn, Cassandras, I heartily recommend the final two episodes of the current Black Mirror season, and the implications for the impacts of technology.

It's FULL ON doomer post collapse absolutely horrific, depressing stuff. Blood, gore, death, the cruelest human inclinations toward other humans imaginable. The mood/scenery, story, acting, special effects, and just flat out ideas to stimulate the grey matter are top notch. No wonder fans love this show so much.

If you want to make money honestly over time, logic and observation and the work ethic work far better than wishful thinking and sensationalism, and have for hundreds of years.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby Zarquon » Sat 28 Jul 2018, 15:33:36

Reminds me of that scam in GB, where some people fleeced hundreds by selling them a useless "insider" course in online options trading, claiming that anyone without any expertise in finance could easily make 20%/month and more by applying their secret system. Only costs a few thousands, and makes you rich in no time.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 28 Jul 2018, 16:00:14

Zarquon wrote:Reminds me of that scam in GB, where some people fleeced hundreds by selling them a useless "insider" course in online options trading, claiming that anyone without any expertise in finance could easily make 20%/month and more by applying their secret system. Only costs a few thousands, and makes you rich in no time.

That kind of thing happens over and over again, often in the US. Apparently as younger people get jobs and come into money, there are enough of such people that will fall for this sort of thing to make it worth if for the scammers to do it.

I watched a documentary years ago (decades, even?) that showed a brick and mortar "school" that used this scam (short term thing, in the US as I recall). They charged liked $6,000 for the course. The material was just very basic options information. The type of stuff you could get from any of scores of basic options books. Or you could get TEN times the material and insight from studying, say, five highly recommended advanced options books from Amazon -- for under 5% of the price of the course.

Most of the course was brief lectures, and then trading sessions. The teachers would literally scream and yell and berate people who were losing money saying things like "Don't forget. It's supply and demand!!!"

...

Whatever people do these days, they should look and research and think before they leap. Today, some prudent looking at Youtube or similar would be wise before ANY significant venture.

For example, I just Googled "stock options scams youtube" and got a LOT of hits naming various stock options schools, ideas, etc. as scams.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 02 Aug 2018, 00:47:48

2nd August, and no signs of the meeting to ban share buy backs that was supposed to start the crash yesterday, but plenty of pages of links to firms continuing to buy back shares when I did an internet search.

Most reviewers that I could find indicated that while they thought Ted Bauman was a genuine analyst he used 'Scam like approaches' to get people to sign up to his newsletter. [I agree as the company he workers for as chief editor put out a press release to alert people of the video without in such a way as to imply that this was an independent link rather than one to one of their main employees].

With no signs of the specific claim about the meeting coming to light, the whole process seems to me to be a scam, so I apologise for posting a Scam link. :oops:
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 02 Aug 2018, 01:59:26

EdwinSm wrote:With no signs of the specific claim about the meeting coming to light, the whole process seems to me to be a scam, so I apologise for posting a Scam link. :oops:

To me, with the caution / disclosure in the way you posted it, you have NOTHING to apologize for. Just look how many end-of-the-financial-world scenarios we get pitched from various Cassandras citing things like dodgy blogs, again and again, as though it's truly credible news. Sheer FUD as long as the message is doomy. You're a saint by comparison, IMO.

I noticed after the market closed while watching the Tesla after hours theater, that I saw what I presume to be the same ad (didn't bother to click on it) but now the title said on September 1.

Doing a quick Google Search, I just found it, dated August 2. LOL

https://banyanhill.com/exclusives/70-st ... ist-warns/

How in the world such clowns make money is beyond me. Kind of gives pause re "Truth in Advertising" laws working, IMO.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 02 Aug 2018, 06:51:10

It was the same ad...with August 1 being replaced by September 1, but they didn't update the video so it still talks of August 1.

I may be conservative in my money approach, but pulling that stunt with advertising means it is one company I will never trust again (not that I have enough money to invest in them, and I am not in the US either).
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 02 Aug 2018, 10:28:53

Another doomsday prediction bites the dust.
[space to store bad short-term prediction currently vacant]
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Meanwhile...

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 02 Aug 2018, 12:34:59

Apple is first public company worth $1 trillion

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45050213

Apple has become the world's first public company to be worth $1 trillion (£767bn).

The iPhone maker's market value reached the figure in late morning trading in New York as its shares rose to a new record high above $207.

The stock has been rising since Tuesday when it reported better than expected results for the three months to June.

Apple beat Silicon Valley rivals such as Amazon and Microsoft to become the first to hit the $1 trillion valuation.

Since the iPhone first went on sale in 2007, Apple shares have soared by 1,100% and have jumped almost a third in the past year.

The rise is even more astonishing - 50,000% - since the company first listed in 1980. That dwarfs the 2,000% increase for the S&P 500 over the same period.


That's an awful lot of overpriced time limited consumer toys.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby Cog » Thu 02 Aug 2018, 13:08:42

This thread makes me laugh.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 02 Aug 2018, 13:47:02

Apple is first public company worth $1 trillion

or to put it another way, that's USD 140 for every living human.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby Pops » Thu 02 Aug 2018, 14:08:22

Apple's P/E is less than 16 which isn't all that high when you consider Amazon's is 60 or something!!!
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 02 Aug 2018, 15:34:46

Pops wrote:Apple's P/E is less than 16 which isn't all that high when you consider Amazon's is 60 or something!!!

AMZN PE is now well over 200, according to Yahoo. It seems to me, whenever I look at AMZN, I see a PE in that ballpark and even though the company seems to be a juggernaut, just can't get into being long a company at that PE. (Call me stupid re hindsight -- I know).

I hold no Apple (or AMZN), and never have.

I just don't "get" spending $1000 or so for a smart phone to be "cool", though I've never been remotely cool (more like a nerd), so there's that.

But in my practical contact with people in their 20's and early 30's, the neices and nephews talk about how they prefer an Android solution for more like $100. As someone who "made it" primarily through frugality -- that's something I at least understand, even though I want no part of smartphones until I'm convinced I really need various mobil killer apps, since I have all the internet I need at home for one low price. I also prefer looking around and seeing the world when I'm out, vs. having my head buried in my cell phone (which currently costs me about $9 a month TOTAL, and gives me all the calling and texting I want).

So I guess this is old, frugal nerdspeak? :)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 09:41:55

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
How in the world such clowns make money is beyond me. Kind of gives pause re "Truth in Advertising" laws working, IMO.


Doesn't this outfit make money the same way that Alex Jones does? I have this friend who used to listen to Alex Jones a lot. Whenever I confronted him over how he was a dupe, he would always insist that Alex Jones was not into it for the money. He then cited all kinds of ways that Alex Jones didn't try to bilk him when he could make those appeals. And now, Alex Jones calls himself a "performance artist." This approach is interesting, even down to the yelling used to cow the downtrodden mentioned in another post. It seems like people are more vulnerable to it than we would like to admit.

If this sort of thing, on the part of Jones and others, amounts to abuse, then what does that mean for the future of the people who have been duped? Victims of abuse don't tend to free themselves and go about normally afterward. They tend to perpetrate the same abuse, this time oriented toward promoting themselves, toward all of the people they love. This doesn't just involve outright violence, but violence against the agency of others who stand between them and their goal, in the form of insistence upon rules which harm them as well. Is the American mind partly closing down because of a reaction to abuse?
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 11:08:46

There are only so many ways to gussy up a washing machine.

The blinking lights on the front panel of your washing machines are not responsible for removing stench from dirty athletic socks. Same old soap and water is what you need. Same with a cell phone. Apple has no where to go, and will collapse. The cell phone is an appliance.

Likewise Facebook is a public utility. It delivers information, and not unlike the gas company (or Bell Telephone last century) is a natural monopoly and will be broken up. AI is bokum. Internet advertising revenue is bogus. It's a circular handjob. A circle jerk. The entire Stock Market is now bogus. Get yer money out. Put it in solar panels.

David Stockman: The World Economy Is At An Epochal Pivot, A 'Great Reset' approaches
David Stockman warns that the global economy has reached an "epochal pivot", a moment when the false prosperity created from $trillions in printed money by the world's central banks lurches violently into reverse.

There are few people alive who understand the global economy and its (mis)management better than David Stockman -- former director of the OMB under President Reagan, former US Representative, best-selling author of The Great Deformation, and veteran financier -- which is why his perspective is not to be dismissed lightly. He knows intimately how how our political and financial systems work, as well as what their vulnerabilities are.

And Stockman thinks the top for the current asset price bubble era is in -- specificially, he thinks it hit its apex in January 2018. As this "Everything Bubble" prepares to burst, Stockman estimates the risk of economic crisis is as great, if not greater than, the 2008 Great Financial Crisis because of the radical and unsustainable monetary policy expansion the central banks have pursued over the past decade.

David made his prediction two days ago, on Friday, August 10, 2018, 7:00 PM. This week? Who knows?
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 11:20:06

A global market crash is coming, and investors should prepare accordingly.

The stock market, bond market, and real estate market are all in bubbles. None of these asset classes will be protected from the crash that is likely to come. The writing is already on the wall, too. For example, we can see massive levels of volatility in the S&P 500 , Dow Jones Industrial Average , Russell , and Nasdaqalready, and it will get worse.


https://www.thestreet.com/opinion/why-a ... g-14566852
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby Pops » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 11:20:32

Gotta remember Cassandra's curse wasn't to be wrong, but to be disbelieved.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 11:26:02

Everyone is watching Everyone with beady little twitching eyes. All trying to time the exit. And when it happens . . . BAM

Run for the exit. But there there is none anymore. No safe haven. Gold is joke. Of course no one will ever recognize that its all about declining net-energy and the failure of Real Work. The Robots are just not up to the task, not ready to repair our failing infrastructure. Nor build out a national electric transport system.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 11:47:33

pstarr wrote:Everyone is watching Everyone with beady little twitching eyes. All trying to time the exit. And when it happens . . . BAM

Run for the exit. But there there is none anymore. No safe haven. Gold is joke. Of course no one will ever recognize that its all about declining net-energy and the failure of Real Work. The Robots are just not up to the task, not ready to repair our failing infrastructure. Nor build out a national electric transport system.

Yes, no more bubbles to inflate, or positive effect from QE. They have run out of silver bullets. Happy motoring happy times are going to grind to a halt very soon. :cry:
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 11:48:07

I always get a chuckle out of these sorts of predictions. It is always easy to find some point where you can argue...Oh look I was right.

As an example if we look at the recent Dow Jones

Image

you could argue...oh look, since August 1st the Dow has dropped 10% which puts it in correction territory and its just going to get worse (easy to predict a short term trend staying the same).

But when you look at the Dow Jones over a longer period, say 4 years you get:

Image

where the market has improved by 150%. In this case it pretty much looks like it will keep rising.
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