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New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 12:13:24

AdamB wrote:
dcoyne78 wrote:
worldcc2.jpg


What happened to the peak oil declared in 2008 by the halfwits at the oil drum? Did someone change the information to make it go away?


As you may know oil output did not peak in 2008.

Clearly the rate of growth in oil output has slowed, even with real oil prices at a level 6.6 times higher from 2006-2016 than they were from 1960 to 1970.

If oil is so abundant, why aren't oil prices $11/b, rather than $60/b?
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 15:39:41

Because demand and supply are more or less in balance.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 19:36:46

dcoyne78 wrote:
AdamB wrote:
dcoyne78 wrote:
worldcc2.jpg


What happened to the peak oil declared in 2008 by the halfwits at the oil drum? Did someone change the information to make it go away?


As you may know oil output did not peak in 2008.


But the half wits said it did!!! How dare they lie!!

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5177

dcoyne78 wrote:Clearly the rate of growth in oil output has slowed, even with real oil prices at a level 6.6 times higher from 2006-2016 than they were from 1960 to 1970.


1960 to 1970 was the end of cheap oil (Colin Campbell needing nearly 3 decades more to pretend it was in the near future), of course everything since then has been more expensive in real terms. And who cares about the rate of growth, that mitigated exactly because of the end of cheap oil, it is called efficiency. Energy intensity has been dropping since that time, fuel efficiency has been increasing, and some of us don't even fill our cars with gasoline anymore! Can you imagine that? People right here on this website told themselves that peak oil in 2005 would itself stop anything from mitigating peak oil, Who Killed The Electric Car being all the rage as a reference!

Needless to say, those of us who don't use gasoline in our cars any more laugh about how little peak oilers know about resource economics.

dcoyne78 wrote:If oil is so abundant, why aren't oil prices $11/b, rather than $60/b?

[/quote]

See my other post demonstrating the proper way to talk about abundance. I should also mention, at the IEW (International Energy Workshop) at the University of Maryland this past July, other big energy analysis organizations were doing exactly the same. The future isn't about prices today, but the prices of tomorrow, and where the resource cost curves say that oil is, and how much can be developed at any given price.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 20:38:14

dcoyne78 wrote:If oil is so abundant, why aren't oil prices $11/b, rather than $60/b?


Who is to say you can't call oil abundant unless it's $11/bbl?

The best real-world way to determine whether a resource is abundant is the cost of finished goods. Gas is well below the point where people start grumbling, therefore oil is still abundant.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 16:42:54

asg70 wrote:Who is to say you can't call oil abundant unless it's $11/bbl?


Typically the real price of good is relatively low when it is abundant.

I picked $11/b because that was the real price of oil in 2016 $ during the oil glut around 1999-2000. Grumbling is difficult to measure. :) Real prices, less so.

Claims can be made that the rate of growth does not matter but if we take 10 year average growth rates for oil output and these approach zero, it is likely that the peak will have been reached.

I agree the higher prices will lead to greater efficiency and reduced demand, all that matters is the rate of output at prevailing prices, I expect 2025 to 2030 is a pretty good guess for the peak in World C+C output, probably at about 84+/- 2 Mb/d.
Last edited by Tanada on Wed 22 Nov 2017, 17:03:28, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quote
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 20:35:07

dcoyne78 wrote:
asg70 wrote:Who is to say you can't call oil abundant unless it's $11/bbl?


Typically the real price of good is relatively low when it is abundant.


Or when demand has migrated elsewhere, or decreased because of conservation. Why using price is a two sided sword, it ain't all about abundance. It is about the relationship between supply and demand at any point in time.

Peakers a decade ago never seemed to talk about this while declaring that price mattered. Always struck me as weird, then it became obvious that resource economics wasn't in their competence envelope any more than oil and gas development.

dcoyne78 wrote:Claims can be made that the rate of growth does not matter but if we take 10 year average growth rates for oil output and these approach zero, it is likely that the peak will have been reached.


And maybe rate of growth changed because demand changed. And maybe price changed for the same reason. And maybe peak demand is already happening, and we can all say good riddance to wasting oil by doing something so stupid as burning it?


dcoyne78 wrote:I agree the higher prices will lead to greater efficiency and reduced demand, all that matters is the rate of output at prevailing prices, I expect 2025 to 2030 is a pretty good guess for the peak in World C+C output, probably at about 84+/- 2 Mb/d.


Sounds similar to Lynch and Yergin, back when peak oilers were getting it wrong and yucking it up over the value of what real energy expert types were estimating. You would have been banned back then I imagine, for daring to presume peak oil hadn't already happened yesterday or was today! Let's hear it for reality tempering the reaction of the acolytes!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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US Vastly Overstates Oil Output Forecasts, MIT Study Suggest

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 01 Dec 2017, 23:21:41


Turns out, America’s decade-long shale boom might just end up being a little too good to be true. There’s no denying that fracking has turned the U.S. into a force in the global oil and gas markets, which has more than a few people abuzz about the prospect of energy independence. But now, researchers at MIT have uncovered one potentially game-changing detail: a flaw in the Energy Department’s official forecast, which may vastly overstate oil and gas production in the years to come. The culprit, they say, lies in the Energy Information Administration’s premise that better technology has been behind nearly all the recent output gains, and will continue to boost production for the foreseeable future. That’s not quite right. Instead, the research suggests increases have been largely due to something more mundane: low energy prices, which led drillers to focus on sweet spots


US Vastly Overstates Oil Output Forecasts, MIT Study Suggests
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Weekly Petroleum Supply Reports 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 07 Jun 2018, 09:31:00

vtsnowedin wrote:I see that as just the suppliers anticipating both a good summer driving season and a heavy construction season, both of which I can see out working on the highways. I don't know as that build in inventory will be enough as the summer progresses.


All it takes is world prices to creep up a little and the exporters will sell that 'excess' overseas. In the current global market world prices shift on a whim, but so long as demand keeps growing supply has to grow as fast or faster to prevent massive increases in price. Sure Texas is still growing as are Iraq and a few other places, but Mexico, Egypt, Indonesia the UK, and an ever growing list of others are in decline. Maybe they can all deploy fracking of tight source rock as the USA/Argentina are, but that remains to be proven.

If you look at the graph of Saudi Arabia their exports have been kept on a plateau for nearly 30 years, which is IMO an extremely impressive achievement. But if you look at the internal consumption part of the graph it is crystal clear that plateau exports and increase internal demand equals increased production. How long can KSA realistically grow its production to meet both plateau exports and ever growing internal demand? When they hit the production wall be it today or in two decades the result will be a decrease in exports.
Image

Throughout the Middle east exporting countries demand went from near nothing in the 1960's to over 10 MM/bbl/d in our current world.
Image

The middle east is not unique, demand everywhere in the developing world has grown and continues to grow. Sooner or later we lose the capacity to keep up with demand, and I am like everyone here confident it will be sooner.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Thu 07 Jun 2018, 12:16:29

Sooner than when?
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Jun 2018, 22:10:56

As I’ve said before nothing wrong with predicting a date for global peak oil production. Or global peak oil demand for that matter. It's just for sport IMHO.

But compared to the constantly changes dynamics of global oil production and consumption such dates are of little importance compared to the impacts of the POD…Peak Oil Dynamic. Just look back (let’s say over the last 50 years) at the periods of great suffering and expenditures of wealth/lives as a result of the POD. And all obviously developing long before those PO or PD dates are reached.

Just look at today’s concerns by everyone. By consumers: will oil prices continue to rise? By oil producers: will prices crash? By govts: will major military conflicts develop in major oil exporting countries? How many members of this collective can’t sleep tight worrying about the date of peak oil production or demand?
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 07 Jun 2018, 22:16:16

Cog wrote:Sooner than when?


To avoid confusion here is the whole paragraph in my earlier post,
Tanada wrote:If you look at the graph of Saudi Arabia their exports have been kept on a plateau for nearly 30 years, which is IMO an extremely impressive achievement. But if you look at the internal consumption part of the graph it is crystal clear that plateau exports and increase internal demand equals increased production. How long can KSA realistically grow its production to meet both plateau exports and ever growing internal demand? When they hit the production wall be it today or in two decades the result will be a decrease in exports.


IOW sooner than two decades into the future from today. How much sooner? Heck I was convinced 2005, 2008 and 2012 were "IT" when they came around because that is what people I trusted were writing at those times. Since then lets just say I have become a bit more jaded on the topic of WHEN, but I still believe the Peak will arrive and unless a heck of a lot has changed by that date the transition to the alternatives is going to be unpleasant, possibly even fatal, for many people. Myself included given my dependence on modern health care.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 12 Jun 2018, 10:47:24

Interesting that oil production development in the Arctic by other countries doesn’t get as much protesting as when the US develops plans. From

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/norwa ... 8-article/

Reuters - Norway's parliament gave a green light on Monday for Equinor's $5.85 billion plan to develop the Johan Castberg oilfield in the Arctic Barents Sea. Johan Castberg Field, which is expected to start in 2022, would become the second producing oilfield in the Norwegian sector of the Barents Sea after Eni's Goliat field, which started in 2016. Equinor, which changed its name from Statoil last month to become a broader-based energy firm spanning everything from oil to wind, has dropped plans to build an onshore oil terminal to handle exports from the 558 million barrel field, to cut costs.

The costs of developing Johan Castberg have been reduced…meaning that production could be profitable at an oil price of $31 a barrel rather than over $80 a barrel. Sweden's Lundin and Austria's OMV are looking at the possibility of developing the Alta/Gohta and Wisting discoveries in the Barents Sea.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 12 Jun 2018, 11:26:32

ROCKMAN wrote:The costs of developing Johan Castberg have been reduced…meaning that production could be profitable at an oil price of $31 a barrel rather than over $80 a barrel. Sweden's Lundin and Austria's OMV are looking at the possibility of developing the Alta/Gohta and Wisting discoveries in the Barents Sea.

Sort of interesting how the Cassandras tend to relay scenarios of "stranded assets" re fossil fuels, to feed the idea of doomsday economics. And yet, in the real world, the scenarios that unfold are apparently more likely, over time, to be having technology improvements make formerly impractical FF assets (due to cost) become highly desirable. Like your example here. Or oil and gas fracking overall are clearly examples of that.

Given how over time, maturing technology tends to work re just about anything we build or extract, the cost lowering scenario is the one that makes more sense as an overall trend.

That doesn't mean we can't run out at some point or that burning it all is a good idea re the reality of AGW -- just pointing out that the whole "stranded assets" in the short term meme makes little sense, if one discounts fairly tails like the ETP theory.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby misterno » Tue 12 Jun 2018, 13:53:06

US oil production set to reach record high; imports on pace for 60-year low

The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for crude oil prices through 2019 as U.S. production remains on pace to break record highs and as domestic imports drop to their lowest levels in almost 60 years.

The agency said Brent crude oil spot prices averaged near $77 per barrel in May, an increase of $5/bbl from the April average to reach its highest monthly average price since November 2014.

Looking ahead, the EIA forecasts that Brent spot prices will average $71/bbl in 2018 and $68/bbl in 2019, marking a near $2/bbl increase in the 2019 forecast since last month.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices are seen averaging near $64.50/bbl in 2018 and near $62/bbl in 2019.

The EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.7 million barrels per day in May, up 80,000 bbl/d from the April level, with output continuing to rise in the coming years. The agency projects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.8 MMbbl/d in 2018, up from 9.4 MMbbl/d in 2017 to its highest annual average since 1970, before rising to an average 11.8 MMbbl/d in 2019.

At the same time, the EIA forecasts that total U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports will fall from an annual average of 3.7 MMbbl/d in 2017 to 2.5 MMbbl/d in 2018 and to 1.6 MMbbl/d in 2019, which would be the lowest level of net oil imports since 1959.

Outside the U.S. the EIA forecasts that crude oil production from OPEC will average 32.0 MMbbl/d in 2018, down 0.4 MMbbl/d from the 2017 level, but will increase slightly to an average of 32.1 MMbbl/d in 2019. The EIA assumes increasing production from Persian Gulf producers, primarily Saudi Arabia, will offset decreased production in Venezuela and Iran.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 03:43:45

For the first time since 1973, the United States is the world's largest producer of crude oil. The feat demonstrates how the US shale oil boom has reshaped the global energy landscape. American oil output has more than doubled over the past decade.

Texas is the epicenter of the shale boom. Production in the Permian Basin of West Texas has grown so much that in February the United States vaulted above Saudi Arabia for the first time in more than two decades. US output kept climbing in June and August, reaching nearly 11 million barrels per day. That nudged the United States ahead of Russia for the first time since February 1999.

'Changed the game'
The achievement underscores the profound impact of rapid technological advances in drilling. Fracking unlocked vast sums of oil and natural gas that had been trapped underground. Drilling costs declined dramatically. "That changed the game for the US. It meant we could be resilient and competitive"

That resilience was required after oil prices crashed beginning in late 2014. OPEC launched a price war to regain market share lost to the United States and other oil producers. Falling prices knocked dozens of US oil companies out of business and caused widespread job losses. US oil production declined -- but not as dramatically as feared. And when prices began to rebound in 2016, US shale companies were able to quickly ramp up output. Their expenses were lower -- and technology had improved.

Texas is an oil superpower
Major oil producers including BP (BP) and ExxonMobil (XOM) have shelled out billions of dollars in recent years to get a piece of the action in the Permian Basin. The Lone Star state is on track to produce more oil than either Iran or Iraq. That would make Texas No. 3 in the world if it were a country. And the state's biggest port district recently exported more crude oil than it imported. "It's all about technological improvements, supported by ample capital to invest, and the ingenuity of American oil drillers."

America is now the world's largest oil producer
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 16:11:37

“The achievement underscores the profound impact of rapid technological advances in drilling. Fracking unlocked vast sums of oil and natural gas that had been trapped underground.”

Guess I’ll have to rant about the same FACTS I’ve done many times before. First, the same frac’ng equipment used in the shale boom existed long before the boom. I mean the actual pump trucks and piping existed many years earlier. The same horizontal drilling equipment also existed 15+ years earlier: I was using it to drill hz wells offshore in the GOM. The same reservoirs were known to contain oil in their fracture systems DECADES earlier.

What was uncertain was the production potential to combine all the known technology to go after that oil. The same wells could have been drilled 10 years earlier but the price of oil did not justify the risk. Another important factor was the growing desperation of public companies to add reserves. Especially when NG prices had collapsed a few years earlier. Once a few early wells came in at high rates the race was on. Just as the race hit a huge speed bump when oil prices collapsed.

And thus the cycle continues today.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 16 Oct 2018, 10:50:17

Thanks for the correction Rockman. I should have just omitted that section of the article and left in the part talking about production numbers.

I was just reading an article that echoed much of what you just said. It talks of how the US Department of Energy partnered with private companies to combine technologies as far back as the 70s(fracking alone goes back as far as the 1850s). I didn't know that, I thought it was all private developments. But I guess it's not that surprising given the uncertainty you mentioned. Government helps pay for the risky uncertain stuff, private companies run with it if it's a success(and the price is there to justify it). It's a pattern that has been followed in other industries as well.

Shale rock presented a particular challenge because of the difficulty in accessing the hydrocarbons in these tight formations. In the mid-1970s, the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the Gas Research Institute (GRI), in partnership with private operators, began developing techniques to produce natural gas from shale. These included the use of horizontal wells, multi-stage fracturing, and ‘slick’ water fracturing (GEO ExPro Vol. 9, No. 2).
Unlocking the Earth - A Short History of Hydraulic Fracturing

The increase in shale oil and gas production in the United States follows many years of investment and research carried out by the federal government. Between 1978 and 1992, DOE invested about $137 million in the Eastern Gas Shale Program, which helped demonstrate and commercialize many of the technologies in use today. As early as 1975, a DOE-industry joint venture drilled the first Appalachian Basin directional wells to tap shale gas. From the 1970s to the 1990s, several DOE-funded R&D technologies would optimize production of shale across the United States: directional drilling, microseismic monitoring of multi-stage hydraulic fracturing treatments, and modeling. These investments—combined with industry collaboration—made the American shale revolution possible.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 16 Oct 2018, 12:49:33

Rockman has instructed us as to the a certain truthiness, to wit: fracting is not new. Unsustainable high oil prices and the need to add reserves (to pump up public stock valuations) created the gusher. Monstrous global debt fueled it. This will soon end in a hiss and whimper heard round the world.
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 16 Oct 2018, 13:58:22

Some oil importers like India are squealing under the higher oil prices. The oil companies on the other hand have seem to have hit a sweet spot. They spent years cutting costs and tightening their belts driving costs to an eight year low. Meanwhile oil is selling at a four year high. Low costs + high revenues = lots of cash. In 2018 they will generate more free cash flow than the previous five years combined.

With oil above $80 a barrel as costs remain at an eight-year low, the industry is seeing green. In 2018 alone, it will rake in as much extra money as it did in the previous five years combined. You could liquidate Facebook Inc. and it wouldn’t touch what oil companies will generate in free-flowing cash over the next three years.

Free cash flow at international oil companies is expected to more than double this year, to a record $175 billion. Then it will rise again in 2019, to close to $200 billion, and stay around that level for at least two years after that. The estimate comes with a big caveat. Oil prices can’t fall from today’s level of more than $80 a barrel, and companies can’t return to pre-crash spending heights. There are reasons to doubt the sustainability of crude’s rally. Oil prices have surged in the past year, in part because a snap-back of U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports is driving fears of supply shortages. BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley said those concerns could subside by the end of the year and that prices “feel high.”

Investors are also uncertain whether they can trust oil company executives to exercise restraint as crude keeps soaring. Firms committed to increasingly large projects, buoyed by a bullish crude market from 2008. By 2014, when prices collapsed, costs and investments for international oil companies rose to $560 billion, while free cash flow fell to less than $50 billion, not enough to cover dividend payments. While the same companies cleaned up their balance sheets and are now more profitable than before the price crash, investor confidence in the sector hasn’t been fully restored.
Big Oil Is About to Bury Skeptical Investors in Cash Pile

A new review by the Department of Energy shows that debt levels in the energy industry are at their lowest levels since the third quarter of 2014.

The financial review of the global oil and gas industry for the second quarter of 2018 ending June 30 found that companies had reduced their debt for seven consecutive quarters, leading to the lowest long-term debt-to-equity ration since the third quarter of 2014, which was right before oil prices began to plummet.

Debt was reduced by more than $20 billion in the second quarter. The report said Brent crude oil prices, the global benchmark, were 48 percent higher in second quarter 2018 than a year ago, averaging $75 a barrel, and the highest since the fourth quarter of 2014.
New review shows oil and gas debt at lowest levels since late 2014

[India's] Prime Minister Narendra Modi today warned oil producers like Saudi Arabia that high crude prices are hurting the global economy and sought a review of payment terms to provide a temporary relief to the local currency.

India, the world's third-biggest oil consumer, has been over the past two months battered by high crude oil prices that have sent retail petrol, diesel and LPG rates to record high, posed inflationary risks and together with a sliding rupee threatened to upset its current account deficit. Also, unrelenting fuel price rise since mid-August has negated cut in taxes and subsidy.

The Indian rupee has fallen 14.5 per cent this year, making imports costlier. The country is over 83 per cent dependent on imports to meet its oil needs. Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said India is "facing severe headwinds from rising oil prices" which have risen by 50 per cent in dollar terms and 70 per cent in rupee term in the last one year.
PM warns of high oil prices hurting global economic growth
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 20 Oct 2018, 15:48:59

kublikhan wrote:Some oil importers like India are squealing under the higher oil prices. The oil companies on the other hand have seem to have hit a sweet spot. They spent years cutting costs and tightening their belts driving costs to an eight year low. Meanwhile oil is selling at a four year high. Low costs + high revenues = lots of cash. In 2018 they will generate more free cash flow than the previous five years combined.

And yet, to hear the Cassandras tell it, the oil companies are losing huge amounts of money by producing all the fracked oil, and are facing financial armageddon "real soon now". (Never mind the financial markets, financial results, etc. It's all a conspiracy if it doesn't fit their belief system).

In the real world, these big profits sound like very good news, given all the exploration that needs to be done over time to find more economic reserves, as global demand continues to grow roughly in line with the global economy. Because despite the Cassandras predictions of rapid economic failure for the oil patch, having the capital and the price incentives to invest in finding more oil ensures such investments can happen.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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