Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 16:30:58

And just a reminder: about 98% of everyone in the US oil patch opposes the building of this pipeline as well as all the other projects that enable the increase in the amount of Canadian oil imported into the USA. That also includes 100's of thousands of private land owners.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11189
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby jawagord » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 17:02:34

ROCKMAN wrote:Jaw - All true...if it gets built. I'll explain again how big pipeline projects typically get built. The construction time and payout period tend to be too long for companies to gamble. So they first solicit "subscribers": companies that commit to shipping a fixed amount of oil thru the pipeline for X amount of years at $Y/bbl. This protects the pipeline builder from market volatility. There will be a fixed period of time for subscriptions to be taken. If not enough subscriptions are made in that time period any subscription commitments are voided.

Last time I checked there was a bit of excess pipeline capacity to import Canadian oil. This leaves the new pipeline builders two problems. First, it will have to charge a competitive transport fee. IOW a smaller profit margin the other pipelines that may have already recovered 100% of their costs. Second, even if a lower fee is offered an oil owner might still be bound by its original subscription commitment. Also any existing subscription commitments for the new line are not enforceable until every required permit is in place. Also any lawsuit that halts construction can cause the clock to run out on existing subscriptions. TransCanada kept extending the original subscription period years ago as delays kept extending the border crossing permit. Eventually it cancelled the subscription period.


Rockman TCPL has gotten recommitments for KXL and yes there is excess capacity, not unexpectedly. With the newly imposed route change in NEB who knows how long this will take to sort out and what extra it will cost. On the plus side most of the pipe was bought years ago and most of the design was done years ago so it could be one of the fastest executed big pipelines if it gets the final go ahead.

And may I add I expect 98% of the refineries on the gulf coast support the pipeline along with 100% of the American shareholders of all those Canadian Oil and Gas companies listed on the NYSE, along with the shareholders of the major American Oil and Gas companies that still have operations in Alberta. :wink:

TransCanada’s ‎liquids pipelines President Paul Miller said on a conference call the company has obtained the desired volume commitment of about 500,000 barrels per day. “We do have various conditions attached,” he said, without disclosing the terms from shippers. “I believe the conditions are manageable.”

https://ca.reuters.com/article/business ... 91S0-OCABS
jawagord
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 146
Joined: Mon 29 May 2017, 09:49:17

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 23:33:03

Jaw - Very good: I had not seen news of the 500,000 bopd commitment. But agan the ovewhelming majority of US oil producers would not like to see this line built. Just as they wish the other import lines didn't exist.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11189
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 11:04:18

ROCKMAN wrote:Jaw - Very good: I had not seen news of the 500,000 bopd commitment. But agan the ovewhelming majority of US oil producers would not like to see this line built. Just as they wish the other import lines didn't exist.


Rockman I'm sure there are more than just your fellow producers and enviros that would be happy if KXL doesn't get built. As you have pointed out several times to the Illuminati on this forum - lack of pipeline capacity isn't preventing Canadian oil from getting to US markets in ever increasing volumes. So KXL is really about market efficiency and there are a host of companies profiting from the current inefficiency. Refiners in Edmonton and Chicago are quite happy to keep getting discounted crude feedstocks, pipeliners in Canada and US profit quite nicely when their lines are at capacity, Warren Buffet's railroad and tank car building companies have done well the last 10 years hauling oil, and then there's the rogue's gallery of sovereign producer states like KSA, Mexico, Venezuela that want to hang on to their US market share..... but eventually all good things come to an end!
jawagord
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 146
Joined: Mon 29 May 2017, 09:49:17

Re: Weekly Petroleum Supply Reports 2018

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 12 Jun 2018, 11:08:59

A huge develop regarding the futures prices of oil sands exports that you’ll never hear about from our MSM. Too many facts for the public to understand. LOL From

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/enbri ... 3-article/

(Bloomberg) -- Enbridge Inc.’s decision to implement and then scrap new rules governing Canada’s biggest export pipeline system sent crude prices on a record roller coaster move this week, earning the pipeline operator both friends and enemies. BP Plc filed a complaint this week with Canada’s National Energy Board saying Enbridge used an “unreasonable exercise of discretion” when it announced and then, 11 days later, canceled new rules governing the amount of oil that shippers were allowed to send through its Mainline system.

Heavy Western Canadian Select crude prices surged by a record $12.20 a barrel relative to U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures Monday after Enbridge scrapped the rule, which was designed to stop shippers from claiming more space than they needed on the pipeline. Space on the system, the largest link between Alberta’s oil sands and U.S. refineries, has been increasingly rationed, as crude production overwhelmed capacity. Prices had sunk $8.75 a barrel relative to WTI in the days after the new rules were announced on May 24. Suncore Energy Inc. and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd, two of Canada’s biggest oil sands producers, welcomed Enbridge’s reversal, saying the existing rules better ensure producers receive a fairer price for their oil.

A surge of new supply out of Canada’s oil sands this year strained limited pipeline capacity, prompting operators such as Enbridge and Kinder Morgan Inc. to increase the rationing of space on export lines. Enbridge said it was concerned that shippers may be continuing to “inflate” the amount of oil they nominate to ship through the lines each month as they vie for space, according to the May 24 letter announcing the new rule. Enbridge’s new system granted oil shippers allowances for the amount of crude they could send on the Mainline based on a 12-month rolling average, plus 15 percent for heavy crude and 40 percent for light crude. Shippers wishing to send more than their allotted amount would need to show physical proof that they had the extra oil. The company said it changed its mind after discussions with shippers.

The drop in Canadian crude prices relative to futures, known as the differential, after the changes were first announced was an “unintended consequence” of Enbridge’s proposal, Canadian Natural Vice Chair Steve Laut said in an interview in Calgary. The beneficiaries would have been refiners at the end of the pipeline. “Now we’ve got differentials where they should have been all along,” he said. “Enbridge was trying to take some of th dysfunction out of the nomination, apportionment side of the business. I’ve got to give them credit for trying to do that.”Western Canadian Select trades at a discount to WTI, in part, because it must be transported thousands of miles to U.S. refineries by pipeline or rail. The discount, which narrowed to $13.80 a barrel from $26 on Monday, has since widened to $17.80 a barrel, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11189
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 12 Jun 2018, 11:52:14

In light of ROCKMAN's post above it seems this would be an opportune time for the northern extension of the Keystone XL to get built. It seems that production has caught up to and exceeded current capacity, which is normally a strong signal for more capacity to be constructed.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 15119
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 13 Jun 2018, 13:22:22

T - Perhaps. Though proven in the past to not be infallible, the IEA sees the same potential possibility:

"Canada will continue to pump out more barrels from the oilsands over the next few years, but delays to pipeline approvals and uncertainty over the provision of more export capacity is undermining the next wave of development, according to the International Energy Agency. In its annual five-year oil forecast published Monday, the IEA warned that Canadian oil pipeline constraints are part of a wider capacity crisis brewing across North America.

“Colossal growth in North American supply from 2018 to 2023 raises the crucial question of whether there is enough pipeline capacity to transport and sell all of that oil,” the Paris-based agency said in a report. “If sufficient capacity is not built, the increase in production we foresee could be at risk, with serious implications for global markets.” Despite the pipeline shortages, Canada will be among the countries leading growth in oil output over the next few years, taking its overall production to 5.6 million barrels per day by 2023, compared to 4.8 million bpd this year.

But the surge would come at a time of limited export options. “During 2018-19, West Texas and West Canada are likely to face shortages in midstream capacity brought about by a rapid production increase,” the IEA said. “The situation will be much more severe in Canada than West Texas as legal delays mean capacity is unlikely to increase before the end of 2019.”

And this despite the North Dakota Pipe Line substituting for a good portion of the economic justification of the KXL pipeline.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11189
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 10:08:55

Judge blocks Keystone XL pipeline (again)

A federal judge blocked the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline Thursday, saying the Trump administration’s justification for approving it last year was incomplete.

In a major victory for environmentalists and indigenous rights groups, Judge Brian Morris of the District Court for the District of Montana overturned President Trump’s permit for the Canada-to-Texas pipeline, which the president signed shortly after taking office last year.

Morris’s ruling repeatedly faulted the Trump administration for reversing former President Obama’s 2015 denial of the pipeline permit without proper explanation. He said the State Department “simply discarded” climate change concerns related to the project.

The decision once again throws into doubt the future of the 1,179-mile Keystone XL, which for much of the decade since its proposal by TransCanada Corp. has been a lightning rod in national energy policy.

The Trump administration had tried to argue that federal courts didn’t even have the right to review Trump’s approval, saying that it extended from his constitutional authority over border crossings. The court rejected that argument. .......
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-envir ... l-pipeline


Meanwhile, WTI futures dropped below $60.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2577
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Cog » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 11:53:11

Trump should ignore the ruling and proceed. Let this one judge try to enforce the ban.

I'm not the least bit surprised this judge is a climate change fanatic appointed by President Obama.
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 11210
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 12:08:54

Cog wrote:Trump should ignore the ruling and proceed. Let this one judge try to enforce the ban.

I'm not the least bit surprised this judge is a climate change fanatic appointed by President Obama.


Heck, Coggoid, let's declare Trump King for Life. He thinks he should be, and you would love it.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2577
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 12:16:08

Ghung – I wonder why they consider this to be any sort of victory for environmentalists. The same volume of oil will continue being exported from Canada and transit those same states. Except it will do so by rail and tanker truck. Both methods which have been repeated proven to be more detrimental to the environment…as well as human life. As far benefiting indigenous people: again how so? The judge is only blocking the section of the pipeline crossing the border. As far as building other sections of the pipeline it has no effect. As well as other pipelines built to carry much of the KXL oil. That was clearly proven by building a new pipeline across the Dakotas. A pipeline that would not have been built had the northern section of the KXL been built. An unnecessary pipeline built adjacent to tribal lands. Don’t you remember that?

Cog - Why defy the judge's order when he can simply have HIS govt engineers write a report that satisfies the judge's order. It was always just going to be boiler plate anyway. This is just a delaying action: won't change the final outcome IMHO.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11189
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Cog » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 13:32:22

Judges are supposed to make rulings according to the law not their preferences or desired social outcomes. This judge is just a tool for climate change fanatics. The executive deals with borders and the judge is out of his lane. I would ignore the ruling and let the judge try to enforce it. There is no constitutional issue at play here. Just another liberal judge trying to interfere with the executive branch.
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 11210
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 17:12:14

Cog wrote:Judges are supposed to make rulings according to the law not their preferences or desired social outcomes. This judge is just a tool for climate change fanatics. The executive deals with borders and the judge is out of his lane. I would ignore the ruling and let the judge try to enforce it. There is no constitutional issue at play here. Just another liberal judge trying to interfere with the executive branch.


I guess in your little world, environmental laws aren't really laws.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2577
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Cog » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 17:25:23

Ghung

What environment law is in play here? I've never heard of a climate change law. Citation please. If there is some climate change law in place, that the president must obey, then you should have no problem providing me the Congressional bill number or statute number.

Show me in "environmental law" where climate change theory interferes with a president's executive authority over borders. Cite the appropriate statute or law that is in play here. While you are at it cite the law or statute where by the president is acting outside the Constitution or his authority contained within. I will wait patiently.

I know you believe that judges should rule based on feelings or some social justice construct, but that isn't really what their constitutional role is in America.
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 11210
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 19:01:10

Cog wrote:Ghung

What environment law is in play here? I've never heard of a climate change law. Citation please. If there is some climate change law in place, that the president must obey, then you should have no problem providing me the Congressional bill number or statute number.

Show me in "environmental law" where climate change theory interferes with a president's executive authority over borders. Cite the appropriate statute or law that is in play here. While you are at it cite the law or statute where by the president is acting outside the Constitution or his authority contained within. I will wait patiently.

I know you believe that judges should rule based on feelings or some social justice construct, but that isn't really what their constitutional role is in America.


You don't know squat. I don't believe that at all. I didn't mention climate change, and I didn't even say whether or not I agreed with the ruling.

As for the rest, see the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (summary: https://www.epa.gov/laws-regulations/su ... policy-act). The Judges job in this case is to determine if the requirements of the Act, and other related statutes are met in connection with the authorizations that are required to construct and operate interstate pipeline projects certificated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (“FERC”). In this case:

In late March 2018, In a court declaration Jill Reilly, the Acting NEPA Coordinator of the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, wrote that the Department is “reviewing the MAR in light of TransCanada’s announcement” that TransCanada is seeking MAR construction easements. The Department will hire a contractor to conduct the new environmental review.

On August 15, 2018, the US District Court for the District of Montana ruled that the supplemental EIS from 2014 needed to consider the pipeline’s approved route through Nebraska and the State Department is required to complete that analysis.

On September 10, 2018, the Rosebud Sioux Tribe and the Fort Belknap Indian Community filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana challenging the State Department’s decision to issue a cross-border permit for the Keystone XL pipeline. The filing alleges various violations of the Administrative Procedure Act, National Environmental Policy Act and National Historic Preservation Act during the permitting process.

On September 24, 2018, the State Department released the draft review of the new route for the pipeline approved last year by the Nebraska Public Service Commission. In the draft supplemental environmental impact statement, the department wrote that “there is potential for environmental impacts from the Proposed Action, should an accidental or otherwise unexpected release of crude oil from the Keystone XL pipeline or facilities occur,” but concluded that impacts would not be significant because a release is unlikely.

On November 8, 2018, the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana ordered the State Department to revisit key aspects of its NEPA analysis before pipeline construction can begin, including reassessing and further explaining its analysis of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions from both Keystone XL and the Alberta Clipper pipeline expansion. The judge also ordered the State Department to reassess the potential for oil spills, impacts to cultural resources and implications of current oil prices.
http://environment.law.harvard.edu/2018 ... -pipeline/
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2577
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Cog » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 19:06:04

So there is no climate change law? Maybe you should call up the judge and tell him that. LOL

Since you and the judge apparently believe such a law exists and the president is bound by it.
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 11210
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 19:14:24

Cog wrote:So there is no climate change law? Maybe you should call up the judge and tell him that. LOL

Since you and the judge apparently believe such a law exists and the president is bound by it.


Another lie from Cog. It's hard being in a world full of delusional tribalists. To borrow from (somewhere):

The left thinks I'm a Republican, the right thinks I'm a Democrat. They're both stupid. I just want to carry a gun and smoke weed at my gay friends' wedding 8O
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2577
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Previous

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Pops and 18 guests