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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 12:58:17

asg70 wrote:Ridesharing is just an easier sell than carpooling or public transit. I think people will always prefer the status owning their own cars but when push comes to shove people will go with what they can afford. If they feel they aren't giving up any freedom to rideshare, then they won't take it as a mark of shame to admit they don't own their own car. It's just one of those cultural tipping point things I think we'll pass through.


This is asg70's 'Quality of Life'....pretending you still own a car while emptying your pockets into the pockets of scam artists.

"Look at me, I'm still part of the club!"....

But this isn't doom, its a cultural tipping point. LOL.

What a fraud.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 17:11:42

StarvingLion wrote:
asg70 wrote:Ridesharing is just an easier sell than carpooling or public transit. I think people will always prefer the status owning their own cars but when push comes to shove people will go with what they can afford. If they feel they aren't giving up any freedom to rideshare, then they won't take it as a mark of shame to admit they don't own their own car. It's just one of those cultural tipping point things I think we'll pass through.


This is asg70's 'Quality of Life'....pretending you still own a car while emptying your pockets into the pockets of scam artists.

"Look at me, I'm still part of the club!"....

But this isn't doom, its a cultural tipping point. LOL.

What a fraud.

I think arriving in a driver-less Uber car will carry a lot higher status then the present ride sharing. Coming home from the club you and the girl you just met can both sit in the back while the car deals with the cops.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 13 Mar 2018, 10:25:12

This sh*t's gettin' real. VW is now putting more money down on batteries than Tesla.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -car-surge

Image

Welcome to an emerging lithium (and cobalt) economy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017 ... ry-future/

It appears we are nearing "Peak ICE" after which it will be all downhill from there, not because of oil depletion, but because of EVs.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 13 Mar 2018, 13:20:47

asg70 wrote:This sh*t's gettin' real. VW is now putting more money down on batteries than Tesla.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -car-surge

Image

Welcome to an emerging lithium (and cobalt) economy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017 ... ry-future/

It appears we are nearing "Peak ICE" after which it will be all downhill from there, not because of oil depletion, but because of EVs.

Get real. One million EVs vs 80 million ICEs. Peak ICEs will be when the number of them(ICEs) sold begins to decline and at present world demand for vehicles of all types is rising faster then the production of EVs so total ICE sales continue to climb. Check back in ten years or so.
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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby eclipse » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 02:14:04

While I'm a fan of New Urbanism and walkable neighbourhoods for the profound health and economic and psychological benefits, this Cora is now a thing. It's a 2 person flying electric car with a 100km range.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeFxjRMv5U8

Also, in about 5 years it might be running not on a lithium battery, but a proton battery powered by carbon & water!
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 11:27:40

vtsnowedin wrote:Get real. One million EVs vs 80 million ICEs.


So said the buggy-whip manufacturers circa 1900.

I don't need to wait for the wave to crash over me to know that it's gonna happen.

Normally I am the one to try to slow people down from making predictions but the trendlines are pretty clear.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 12:10:09

asg70 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Get real. One million EVs vs 80 million ICEs.


So said the buggy-whip manufacturers circa 1900.

I don't need to wait for the wave to crash over me to know that it's gonna happen.

Normally I am the one to try to slow people down from making predictions but the trendlines are pretty clear.

"It's gonna happen" still doesn't say how fast.

Even with the VW article talking about $25 billion in batteries pushing EV production to 16 factories by YE 2022, they're also talkng about producing "as many as" 3 million EV's by 2025.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -car-surge

That's if everything goes according to plan. Even if we have 20 million EV's being produced in 2025 (which IMO is wildly optimistic), we're looking at a few decades or so to transition to a strong majority (say, 80% of global passenger vehicle production) of BEV's in car manufacturing. And it's not like the newer ICE's on the road will be useless. One can drive an ICE all day at speed, unlike a horse.

When we're at the beginning of the S-curve (EV's in the 1% of production range), I don't think it's reasonable to assert we can say a lot about the timing of the rest of the S-curve. Especially at the rate things are ramping up (still in the range of lots more promises and visions than long range EV's proving to be reliable and durable vs. modern ICE's, in happy customers' hands).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 12:21:53

asg70 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Get real. One million EVs vs 80 million ICEs.


So said the buggy-whip manufacturers circa 1900.

I don't need to wait for the wave to crash over me to know that it's gonna happen.

Normally I am the one to try to slow people down from making predictions but the trendlines are pretty clear.


The EV that will be powered by Windmills that cannot even keep the lights on.

Sure thats going to happen.

EV's will totally destroy whats left of the industrial economy even quicker than ever.

Then its Stalingrad 43 in every city until the ammo runs out.

Then the Carrion Birds arrive and munch on asg70.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 16:46:39

Keep the flame of old-fashioned doom-mongering alive, SL. I know it makes you feel...special.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 16:48:55

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Even with the VW article talking about $25 billion in batteries pushing EV production to 16 factories by YE 2022, they're also talkng about producing "as many as" 3 million EV's by 2025.


Right, but that assumes VW is the only automaker that puts its money where it's mouth is this way. When things hit a tipping point then everyone else says "ohh, sh*t! Look at those guys! We better get in before it's too late" and then things accelerate bigtime. That's where things start to get really interesting.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 19:21:19

It comes down to what the first buyers think when it comes time to trade in their EV with a 100 or 150 thousand miles on it. If they are satisfied and want to trade for a new better EV then the future of EVs is bright indeed. If on the other hand they have not had a good experience with with their EV and will trade for a new ICE car then the EVs are doomed.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 19:34:50

asg70 wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Even with the VW article talking about $25 billion in batteries pushing EV production to 16 factories by YE 2022, they're also talkng about producing "as many as" 3 million EV's by 2025.


Right, but that assumes VW is the only automaker that puts its money where it's mouth is this way. When things hit a tipping point then everyone else says "ohh, sh*t! Look at those guys! We better get in before it's too late" and then things accelerate bigtime. That's where things start to get really interesting.

How many major car makers are there? How many are likely to go full tilt like VW from the get-go? 20 million EV's (my estimate for the upper bound of EV production by 2025) is, IMO, a hell of a lot of EV's in that timeframe, and requires a hell of a lot of things going right to happen.

If, say, Toyota hangs out and decides to mainly wait and see and play with solid state battery technology (as seems to be happening -- and I'm a Toyota fan due to their quality reputation), it's going to take a number of years to ramp up if they have that "oh sh!t" moment, just like it's taking years for VW to ramp up from the E-Golf to what they're planning.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 20:33:40

Tesla trucks moving cargo from Nevada to California.

Tony Seba...you still looking like DA MAN!!
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 22:29:51

Outcast_Searcher wrote:How many major car makers are there? How many are likely to go full tilt like VW from the get-go?


After reviewing the Geneva Auto Show, all of them are moving to the next level by moving beyond compliance-cars. Not only that, but I am noticing new bold announcements by automakers at an accelerated clip. When it seems like the lay of the land is a constantly moving target, that's when you know that an industry is entering into a rapid phase-change.

This is, of course, coinciding with greater sales of trucks and SUVs, but that is what peak anything means. Cell phones at the dawn of the smartphone market features enormous sales of dumb candybar phones because that was what people knew and what was fully commoditized. You have to look beyond current sales figures to see inflection points.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 10:20:58

The actual design and capability of an EV are less important than consumer acceptance. In truth, the existing EV designs, even those inexpensive low-end "compliance cars" are more than satisfactory to replace most ICE applications. The fact that sales are so low reflects the general lack of belief in the oil peak among the general populace.

When EV sales (not hybrids but real EVs without a fuel tank) constitute 20% of all new vehicles sold, then the advent of the EV will have occurred. What we have now are EV hobby cars for enthusiasts at the high end, and low-end compliance cars that really are more than good enough in urban environments.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 11:07:59

KaiserJeep wrote:The actual design and capability of an EV are less important than consumer acceptance. In truth, the existing EV designs, even those inexpensive low-end "compliance cars" are more than satisfactory to replace most ICE applications. The fact that sales are so low reflects the general lack of belief in the oil peak among the general populace.

When EV sales (not hybrids but real EVs without a fuel tank) constitute 20% of all new vehicles sold, then the advent of the EV will have occurred. What we have now are EV hobby cars for enthusiasts at the high end, and low-end compliance cars that really are more than good enough in urban environments.


EV's are like Nuclear power, you have to pay a lot more up front but your long term fuel and maintenance costs are much less. If EV's were the same price as an equivalent size/comfort ICE vehicle then you could get a real picture of their social acceptance. So long as the battery pack drives the costs to such high levels then they will remain like Tesla, the toy of the well to do and those who want to claim green social status. Pretending the average car buyer who just needs basic transport can just ignore the $10,000 cost of a large battery pack is a mistake.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 12:21:50

You have a point, but only if you are purchasing a new EV while your income is low. Here are the cheap EVs:

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cheapest-electric-cars

These are 8 cars that average $30,691. The 9th car, the Honda, can only be leased. But if you are buying, and buying in a time when you have income tax liability, you can get up to $10,000 in tax credits, making these EVs distinctly cheap. The caveats are:

1) You must owe the income taxes to get the tax credit. That means you must owe the Feds $7500 or more to get the $7500 Federal tax credit, and in California for example you must owe $2500 or more to get the $2500 State credit. Even retired, I won't have a problem doing that. However if you live in other states you may not even have a state income tax, or get a different amount for state credit.

2) As the number of EVs sold by a single manufacturer increases, the rebates are reduced. But only Tesla has ever come close to approaching the limit of 200,000 cars per year and even they have never actually hit that threshold.

3) The rebates apply to the car owner. If you lease the car, the lease holder gets the rebate, not you.

4) The market for used EVs is questionable, you should not buy an EV if you like to trade cars a lot. However the possibility exists that technological change will obsolete whatever you buy and significantly reduce the resale value. My youngest car is a 2003 model, so this one won't bother me either.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 13:23:06

Tanada wrote:EV's are like Nuclear power, you have to pay a lot more up front but your long term fuel and maintenance costs are much less.

That's the line that keeps getting touted, but:

1). We have to see if that's true, re the maintenance. ICE's are getting very good, if you buy a reliable brand, don't drive a lot of miles, and only keep it 10 years. Aside from oil changes, you might not need to do a lot of maintenance on, say, a modern Honda or Toyota sedan the first ten years.

OTOH, I still think the battery life is an open question. The greens and Tesla are claiming the batteries are no problem. I want to see what happens in the real world. In the real world, the traction batteries in the Toyota HEV's do tend to get replaced quite a bit after 10 years or so. (vs. a BEV, which also has tires, cabin air filters, winshield washers, etc).

So for me, for example, driving under 5000 miles a year, a $10,000 potential battery replacement, vs. 10 years of oil changes is no contest on the maintenance side, if I keep a car I drive maybe 40,000 miles for ten years. (Will the newer crop of ICE's do better for like 15 years? I have no idea, but if quality is improving, they just might).

2). Now, the gasoline vs. electricity will result in savings. How much will depend on where you live and how much you drive and what type of driving you do.

For me, driving a late model Toyota Camry ICE, I get about 20 mpg in the city, where I do 95% of my driving. So about 200 gallons of gas for my 4000ish miles I drive a year. So currently, my ENTIRE fuel cost is under $500 a year. If electricity costs me 40% as much, that's under $300 savings. At $4 gasoline, thats more like $800 - $160, or under $540 a year in savings.

Again, a battery replacement dwarfs that, unless batteries get a LOT cheaper, including whatever labor and other charges are added to the replacement job.

....

It may be a "done deal" for the greens and the BEV sellers, but I'm not yet convinced that economically, it's a done deal for everyone.

Especially if a Chevy Bolt-like car costs $40,000 without the tax breaks, and the ICE equivalent costs about $20,000 -- or even $15,000. Then, economically, it's not even CLOSE.

....

I'm not saying EV costs won't win the day in the end. I'm just saying the casual hand-waving of "0h, the BEV ownership is so much CHEAPER!" claims, like it's completely obvious, seem to be building in significant assumed cost savings in the FUTURE -- which may or may not occur in a "few" years.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 14:26:20

Good points but when you compare cars you always have to make some assumptions about future prices. What the average price of gas will be over the life of a car purchased today is just a wild @ssed guess at any given time. I usually use the average drivers 15,000 miles a year unless I'm using my own best figures for my situation which has changed drastically now that I'm fully retired and can leave the truck undisturbed for days at a time instead of the 40K A year I used to drive inspecting paving projects.
For general discussions I think there are two possible end points Five years at the end of the payments and ten years when well worn and 150K on the dial. I might use $4.00 gas for a five year computation and say $6.50 for a ten year plot. For electricity my local numbers are above national averages but pick 0.25/KWH for five years and 0.35/KWH for ten years.
So for a five year on a Toyota Camry LE list $25,149 at 0.9% interest for 60 ms. $565 other dealer fees etc.out the door for $26,000 rate 28/39 mpg use 32 for 75K miles =2350 gallons @$4.00=$9400. 15 oil changes at 5000 miles @$50 each=$750,
One set of tires @$150 each =$600. Repairs and inspections, got to plan on at least one, say $1000 . Insurance @1000/year=$5000. State tax registration and title $1250
That all adds up to......$44,000. Trade in value of a five year old LE with 75K on it is just over $7000 so 44,000-7000=37,000/75,000miles=$0.493/ mile.
I'll let you do the Tesla. :)
Edited to correct a typo on the gas estimated cost. :oops:
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 15:02:43

The fact there's this much hype when gas is cheap is significant. Wait until prices really do spike up. Then it will largely erode what little resistance the carbuying public has left. But right now I don't see "payback" on electricity vs. gasoline factoring in much (nor ecological thinking which is completely off people's radar, unfortunately).
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