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THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 13 Dec 2017, 19:50:06

Sub - As pointed out numerous times there are two very important distinctions that separates the US from other regions on the planet. And THE most important IMHO is the nature of the companies doing the drilling. US activity is dominated by public oil companies. Pubcos that are obsessed with increasing booked reserves y-o-y. And obsessed for good reason: reserve improvement is THE primary metric Wall Street uses to set stock prices. It's impossible for Wall Street to measure a companies true profitability. But with companies using SEC regs it's very easy to measure reserve growth. I'll tell the same true story. Years ago I drilled 4 horizontal wells in producing reservoirs. This allowed increasing the reserve base. But the cost of the wells exceeded the value of the new reserves. IOW while increasing reserves and increasing company production rate 5X the drilling effort LOST MONEY. But thanks to Wall Street the stock increased from $0.75/share to $3.50/share. And we didn't lie to the SEC: if you looked at the details of our financials the details were there. But Wall Street didn't care: reserves increased y-o-y.

Secondary: the US dominates the drilling/frac'ng infrastructure. At one time Chevron was talking up the shale potential in Poland. Poland that, at the same time as the US had 1,800 rigs drilling, had a total of 6 drilling rigs. But since the Poland shales were a bust those 6 rigs were more then enough to handle demand.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 13 Dec 2017, 20:15:06

BHP Billiton: World’s Largest Mining Company To Exit Its $50 Billion Shale Oil Blunder

What they said back in 2011
Image

from the comments:
Herbert | December 13, 2017 at 2:15 pm | Reply
Steve,

at the time BHP bought the shale oil field, the price for crude was at $120 pb.
They thought the price would stay there (but not for long lol). Now the price is around $60 pb but as we know THG thinks the price will decrease further.
I wonder if there is much more at stake, than the investments in shale oil, what is with the big oil drilling rigs or all the investments in the extraction of tar sands ?

SRSroccoSRSrocco | December 13, 2017 at 2:46 pm | Reply
Herbert,

Yes… true. BHP purchased those assets at the top. However, even at $100-$110 a barrel for oil, NO ONE MADE ANY MONEY… LOL.

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THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 13 Dec 2017, 21:33:03

What is waiting in the wings to be the Next Great Thing?


there are those you hear about and those you don't.

The Vaca Muerta is already producing but is hampered by lack of proper regulations, lack of a competitive service industry and slow approvals in some of the provinces. The acreage is now held by about 6 or 7 companies with little in the way of drilling commitments forcing activity. Hence the pace is a lot slower than we saw in the US where there was huge competition amongst service companies and negotiations with royalty land holders forced a drilling schedule that was pretty aggressive. It is definitely economically produceable and once all the infrastructure is in place it will be very significant, especially in a country where they have been paying anywhere from $9 to $14 per MMBTU to import gas and LNG.

In the background and not well known to those who never worked there Algeria has been quietly developing shale gas and liquids in the Devonian and Silurian sources rocks for a number of years. The shale basins are immense but little is known about the extent of some of the production they have gotten from theses zones (Haliburton reported a few years ago on a couple of vertical wells that Sonatrach completed in the Devonian Meden Yaha Fm which produced at rates 6 - 8 times typical shale gas wells in the US. There is lots of infrastructure around, access to water (huge acquifer here) and Sonatrach basically owns it all (hence no rush to develop it nor any rush to make press releases).

Aramco has been gradually testing some of the deeper shales along with their deep Permian conventional Khuff gas project. Although the search for conventional gas in the Rub Al Khali has been less than exciting there is extensive shale deposits that match well with counterparts in the US and have tested gas. Recently SA has been pushing for more and more gas for their energy needs which will see an increase in activity in the unconventional side of things. They definitely have all the services they need to accomplish this it is really a will/need to be aggressive.

The same Silurian shales that are present in Algeria and provide a source for much of the discovered hydrocarbons are also present in the onshore Sirte Basin in Libya. Wells drilling to the basal Nubian sands in the basin have tested gas from these shales in the past. There has been almost zero exploration activity in Libya for the past 10 years and things don't look like they will change quickly but the resource is definitely there.

Northwest China Tarim basin is also a key area. The Chinese have been quite active there but do not report anything so at this point anyones guess is as good as the others. It is a huge area and the rock quality certainly compares with that from the better US basins.
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World Oil Supply Hits Year High, Boosted by U.S. Shale Surge

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 14 Dec 2017, 22:30:41

Shale producers are roaring back to life, pushing the global oil supply to its highest level in a year and undermining OPEC’s efforts to rebalance the market through production cuts, the International Energy Agency said Thursday. In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the IEA said the amount of crude oil on the global market rose by 170,000 barrels a day in November to 97.8 million barrels a day. The agency cited a surge in U.S. shale production and increased drilling and completion activity. ... WSJ


World Oil Supply Hits Year High, Boosted by U.S. Shale Surge
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 00:09:18

rockdoc123 wrote:
What is waiting in the wings to be the Next Great Thing?


there are those you hear about and those you don't.

The Vaca Muerta is already producing but is hampered by lack of proper regulations, lack of a competitive service industry and slow approvals in some of the provinces. The acreage is now held by about 6 or 7 companies with little in the way of drilling commitments forcing activity. Hence the pace is a lot slower than we saw in the US where there was huge competition amongst service companies and negotiations with royalty land holders forced a drilling schedule that was pretty aggressive. It is definitely economically produceable and once all the infrastructure is in place it will be very significant, especially in a country where they have been paying anywhere from $9 to $14 per MMBTU to import gas and LNG.


Thanx for the update about world fracking prospects. What I am looking for however is what comes after fracking? Is there some other source for crude oil to supplement conventional and fracking sources as we slide down the post peak slope?
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 00:19:41

Subjectivist wrote:What I am looking for however is what comes after fracking? Is there some other source for crude oil to supplement conventional and fracking sources as we slide down the post peak slope?


There's tar sands. But that isn't easy to produce on a large scale.

So it looks like after fracking comes Peak Oil.

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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 11:09:43

Is there some other source for crude oil to supplement conventional and fracking sources as we slide down the post peak slope?


I guess kerogen shales might be one. People have toyed around with the Green River shale for decades but as yet have not been able to come up with a viable economic extraction method. But they keep plugging away so eventually that nut will get cracked. There are similar kerogen shales in Morocco, a friend of mine had a company that was trying to make that work but was unsuccessful.

If I remember correctly Shell pulled out of the research into oil shale extraction a few years ago.

Places with large oil/kerogen shale deposits that are mineable: Israel, Jordan, Morocco, US, China, Brazil
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 12:29:06

I don't know the numbers regarding the residual oil remaining in conventional fields worldwide, but in the case of Ohio, specifically, the eastern half of the state is sitting atop a large amount of oil that cannot economically be recovered.
Reason why I mention that is because Cabot is rumored to be getting ready to drill way over in Ashland county, in north central Ohio.

There have been efforts - and some unsuccessful trials - over the years to induce some workable, pressure drive mechanism to get the known oil into the wellbore.
The fact that Cabot might be giving this another shot - if the speculation is correct - and if they have some success could be very interesting, to put it mildly.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 17:39:50

coffeeguyzz wrote:I don't know the numbers regarding the residual oil remaining in conventional fields worldwide, but in the case of Ohio, specifically, the eastern half of the state is sitting atop a large amount of oil that cannot economically be recovered.
Reason why I mention that is because Cabot is rumored to be getting ready to drill way over in Ashland county, in north central Ohio.

There have been efforts - and some unsuccessful trials - over the years to induce some workable, pressure drive mechanism to get the known oil into the wellbore.
The fact that Cabot might be giving this another shot - if the speculation is correct - and if they have some success could be very interesting, to put it mildly.


1. Oil production from conventional reservoirs seems to have pretty much peaked. Thats what all the furor over Peak Oil ca. 2005 was about. Since then the numbers for oil production from conventional fields have gone up and gone down a bit, but for more than 10 years now are pretty much where they were in 2005----its been called the "bumpy plateau" in oil production rate.

2. Cabot has acquired some leases and plans to drill and frack the Utica Shale in Ohio.

cabot-og-considers-drilling-in-ashland-county-oh-utica-shale

The area they are interested in was previously drilled and tested by Devon without any success.

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Shale Growth Hides Underlying Problems

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 26 Dec 2017, 11:18:34


All eyes are on U.S. shale as we head into 2018, with a growing number of analysts worrying that shale will spoil the oil price rally. Estimates of supply growth varying quite a bit, but directionally, everyone is in agreement: Supply is set to surge. However, there are some cracks in the shale complex that might not necessarily mean much in the short-term, but raises some questions about the long-term durability of shale output. According to Rystad Energy, there is empirical evidence that points to falling production in the Eagle Ford from some of the recently drilled shale wells. Everyone knows that shale wells enjoy an initial burst of output that is quickly followed by a precipitous decline within a few months. A driller must constantly drill new wells in order to grow production. The shale industry has boasted of higher initial production


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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 10:50:18

pstarr wrote:I don't see consumer demand and a higher oil price lifting tight-shale out of the peak-oil cost basement. Tight shale E&D requires at least $60 probably $70/barrel but we are already stuck at $50 because folks just don't want to pay more. So little or no new drilling . . . just fracting and completion of drilled fields. Those first gen shale fields have recently entered in their precipitous decline phase. The rest are soon to follow. So sure, fracting will get a second wind. Like the death rattle of an emphysema patient in the terminal care wing lol


Well Pstarr one year after what you said you could not see ever happening the WTI price has broken back over $60/bbl, even if only briefly.
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The Shale Wonderland

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 16:56:11


The world was taken aback when oil prices fell dramatically early this year. We had grown used to oil at over US$100/barrel. To drop to about half was unprecedented. Many in the oil production business are desperately revising their budgets; the rest of us are starting to enjoy an improved cash flow. Of course, what happened was that the United States had started to produce oil and gas at an unforeseen rate. Prof Philip Lloyd's response originally appeared in Issue 1/2015 of our print magazine. The digital version of the full magazine can be read online or downloaded free of charge. Today it is producing nearly 10 million barrels of oil a day and Saudi Arabia is increasing its output in an attempt to put the US producers out of business and so drive a price increase. Today the US is producing


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Spooked by Quakes, Oklahoma Toughens Fracking Rules

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 11 Mar 2018, 14:13:19


After swarms of earthquakes caused by hydraulic fracturing, Oklahoma has introduced tougher regulations than those used by any Canadian energy regulator. Last month the Oklahoma Corporation Commission ordered all drillers to deploy seismic arrays to detect ground motion within five kilometres of hydraulic fracturing operations over a 39,000-square-kilometre area in the centre of the state. The commission, which regulates the industry, also lowered the minimum level of earthquakes at which operators must change practices from the current 2.5 magnitude to 2. In addition, frackers must suspend their operations immediately for up to six hours after causing a 2.5 magnitude earthquake which can be felt at the surface. The commission created the new earthquake protocol after hydraulic fracturing operations set off more than 70 earthquakes of at least 2.5 magnitude since 2016. Canada’s energy regulators only make companies stop operations if they cause a magnitude 4 earthquake. The Alberta


Spooked by Quakes, Oklahoma Toughens Fracking Rules
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Re: U.S. Government Confirms Link Between Earthquakes and Hy

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 11 Mar 2018, 14:28:34

Given the way things tend to work re government, this seems like a reasonable approach by government. Tighten regulations and attempt to deal with the problem by making things safer. Do NOT just "ban fracking", as though the world doesn't want and need hydrocarbons to run the system.

My main issue is how long such changes take -- but that seems to be in the nature of things in first world governments, generally, IMO.

They should continue to evaluate and make further changes if needed, based on ongoing objective data.

The modern world is fraught with risky activity. Without risk, modern technology and cities couldn't exist. In an ideal world, such risk is intelligently managed by prudent government regulation.

In the real world, things are often a mess in the short term, but society at least tries to navigate some sort of "reasonably rational" compromise. Obviously, MANY groups will disagree with the decisions made, on almost all substantive issues.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 22:27:53

COLUMBUS, Ohio— The U.S. Bureau of Land Management today will auction 345 acres of Ohio’s only national forest, the Wayne National Forest, for oil and gas fracking despite a recently filed protest showing fracking could endanger drinking water and wildlife.

The leases would lock in dangerous fracking in the Wayne. Despite known threats from fracking pointed out by the conservation groups’ protest, the BLM planned the auction using only a cursory review that avoids site-specific analysis of potential harm. That means the public will have no information about pollution risks to streams, eradication of endangered species habitat and harm to nearby communities, which is required under the National Environmental Policy Act.

“The Bureau of Land Management is unlawfully cutting corners in its push to develop the Wayne. Our protest filing is intended to rein in the agency,” said Nathan Johnson, attorney for the Ohio Environmental Council. “The Wayne is one of Ohio's finest natural treasures, plain and simple. It deserves to be protected from heavy industrial development.”

The auction comes after the U.S. Forest Service announced plans to revise its 2006 forest plan governing land management in the Wayne. Conservation groups last year sued the Forest Service and the BLM, which oversees drilling and fracking of federal oil and gas. The lawsuit says federal officials relied on the outdated plan and failed to analyze threats to public health, water, endangered species and the climate before opening 40,000 acres of the Wayne to fracking.

“This wild forest is being sacrificed for fracking based on a dangerously outdated plan that ignores major risks to public health and wildlife,” said Wendy Park, an attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity. “The lack of transparency in this process is disturbing. The Forest Service needs to listen to the public and spare Ohio’s only national forest from fracking industrialization and contamination.”

“When well pads are blowing up in Ohio, earthquakes are increasing in number, toxic radioactive frack waste is injected into holes in the ground all over our Appalachian counties, and pipelines are destroying our landscape and polluting our wetlands and streams, we are saying it is time to stop,” said Roxanne Groff with Buckeye Environmental Network. “The Forest Service has dismissed us for far too long and we are not going to stand for them to waste our finest natural resource any longer.”

Clear-cutting for well pads, roads and other infrastructure would reverse decades of forest and watershed recovery in the Wayne and destroy habitat for endangered Indiana bats and threatened northern long-eared bats. The bats are already imperiled by forest fragmentation, white-nose syndrome and climate change. Pollution from fracking operations, explosions and spills would damage water supplies that provide drinking water for millions of people.

“There are very few vestiges of wilderness left in Ohio for wildlife habitat and outdoor recreation. Ohio's only national forest should be preserved, not plundered for private industry profits,” said Jen Miller, director of Ohio Sierra Club. “We call for the stop of all fracking and pipeline activities, and for a robust, transparent process to revise the forest management plan in a way that maximizes wildlife protections and recreational opportunities for generations to come.”

Since 2016 the BLM has auctioned off more than 2,300 acres of Wayne National Forest. Three lease sales have used “determinations of NEPA adequacy,” or DNAs, which avoid any analysis of site-specific environmental harm before leasing public lands to industry. Conservation groups have mounted administrative or legal challenges to these lease sales.

“In a time of accelerating climate change, biodiversity loss, and air and water pollution crises, this action by the supposed stewards of our natural resources is unconscionable,” said Heather Cantino of Athens County Fracking Action Network. “Wayne and BLM’s justifications for this action are not based on science or the public interest, which by law they must be. Today’s protest stands up for the law and the rights of the American people.”

The Trump administration recently issued a directive calling for expanded use of DNAs for fracking leases on public lands across the country. That directive effectively excludes the public from the public-lands leasing process, shortens protest periods to just 10 days from 30 days, and restricts BLM staff from postponing lease sales to protect sensitive resources.

“It’s extremely disappointing that, after all of the climate disasters of 2017, the Bureau of Land Management is still choosing to sacrifice our National Forest for fossil fuel industrialization,” said Becca Pollard of Keep Wayne Wild. “BLM should instead focus on the forest’s natural ability to absorb greenhouse gases while providing habitat for wildlife and wild places for people to visit.”


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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 23:53:12

T - Been meaning ask a question about such concerns. I'm sure everyone remembers all the claims about the damages caused by frac;ng few years ago. Have you noticed that despite thousands of wells frac'd in various trends across the nation over the last few years you see almost no such claims? And even the hysteria over frac'ng in OK causing earthquakes has been dismissed since it was shown that if any manmade activity was the cause it was waste water disposal and not frac'ng itself.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 00:20:27

The 345 acres is barely half of a standard 1 mile section. (Eastern states do not have geometric, pre-determined Drilling Units/Leases like most western states).

The extraction for much of this is to enable neighboring, privately owned land/mineral rights to proceed.
I'm not sure if all the surface activity will take place outside of the forest boundaries completely.

In any event, the anti fossil fuel people excel in proudly spreading false, dramatic narratives in inverse proportion to their embrace of facts.
After all this time, it is most dismaying that these braying, know nothing activists still have an audience for their deceit.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 00:30:58

And, Rockman, the conclusive study of studies was the EPA"s 'meta study' of 1,200 papers, investigations, studies on frac'ing throughout the USA.
Nada, zilch was found harmful and the previous administration's Marxists went nuts.
Made the final release say no systemic damage was found.

This report will be read by no one and it is a shame as the detail, scope, and clear conclusions show hydraulic fracturing is an inherently safe process that has been done for 70 years.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 16:53:31

coffee - And of course: "Made the final (EPA) release say no systemic damage was found." Which means no lawyers working for contingency fees which means no one paying for lawyers to file lawsuits which means no one filing lawsuits which means no reporters listening to incensed landowners ranting about damages.

And the possibility a counter lawsuit might give some landowners second thoughts. From last Sept:

In March 2016, a jury awarded the family of Scott Ely and Monica Marta-Ely $2.5 million. The family of Victoria Hubert was awarded $1.49 million. The judgement was against Cabot Oil for its frac’ng in this portion of PA. In March 2017, federal judge Martin C. Carlson set aside the jury verdict, saying the evidence did not support the judgement. The judge agreed with Cabot that the weaknesses in the plaintiffs’ case and proof, coupled with serious and troubling irregularities in the testimony and presentation of the plaintiffs’ case – including repeated and regrettable missteps by counsel in the jury’s presence – combined so thoroughly to undermine faith in the jury’s verdict that it must be vacated and a new trial. Moreover, the jury’s award of more than $4 million in damages for private nuisance bore no discernible relationship to the evidence, which was at best limited; and even were the Court to find that the jury’s verdict of liability should stand, the Court can perceive no way in which the jury’s damages award could withstand even passing scrutiny regardless of the applicable standard of review.

IOW the jury didn’t care if the evidence supported the case or not: they just wanted to suck some cash from the Big Bad oil company for their fellow citizens. And what has their effort bought those “damaged” landowners: Cabot has filed a $5 million lawsuit against them and their lawyers for filing a frivolous lawsuit against the company. And this isn’t the only suit filed against landowners running frac’ng damage scams. One landowner in Texas took a big hit when the company that filmed his “flaming water well” admitted it was all a fake.

Not surprising that none of those folks here that constantly reposted the news of such INITIAL judgements haven't bothered to update those cases, is it? LOL.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 19:13:32

Rock
Don't get me started on the Ely-Cabot case.

2 local journalists attended every day throughout the 2 week case.
Just a few of the gems ...

Methane-infused water from the Ely water well was found and documented BEFORE Cabot began drilling (very common in this area).

Isotopic analysis of the Ely water showed different components from nearby Cabot well ... IOW no connection whatsoever.

AFTER claiming Cabot ruined their homestead, Elys built $1 million estate on same ground.

On and on ...
These bits of info are not broadcast as The Narrative of those eeevill frac'ers must go on.

Lying sacks of shit one and all.
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