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ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 22:42:10

dissident wrote:
asg70 wrote:
Sys1 wrote:1) We have passed peak conventional oil around 2007, the reason why we experimented the worst economic crisis since 1929.


Nope. Credit crisis.


So where are all the other such credit crises over the last 70 years? As if a credit crisis is a stand-alone phenomenon.

High gasoline prices killed off the ex-urban development in the USA. It has not recovered. This housing bubble bursting around 2008 was one of the prime "causes" of your "credit crisis".


I dunno where you live but in Northwest Ohio and Southeast Michigan (the west shore of Lake Erie territory) Exurban construction is booming once again. Not to the heights it reached in 2007-2008 but around 2005 levels so far.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby MD » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 05:51:55

the community sprawl growth has resumed in Florida also.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 07:08:56

Tanada, your state, along with Pennsylvania and West Virginia stand at the epicenter of a possibly decades' long boom.
The fact that customers of Dominion Energy were paying $3.07/mmbtu when prices in NY and New England skyrocketed over $100 was noticed by many.

Right this weekend, South Australia is facing another electricity crisis due to heat.
If their power hungry smelters go offline for a few hours, it would be catastrophic. Meanwhile, the first new aluminum smelter in 40 years in the US broke ground last week near Ashland, Kentucky.

The world's cheapest electricity prices at 6 to 8 cents per kilowatt hour is luring manufacturers all over the globe to your region.
Two dozen huge CCGT plants are being built, fueled by Appalachian Basin natgas, ensuring low prices far off into the future.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby GHung » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 08:43:18

coffeeguyzz wrote:...... The world's cheapest electricity prices at 6 to 8 cents per kilowatt hour is luring manufacturers all over the globe to your region.
Two dozen huge CCGT plants are being built, fueled by Appalachian Basin natgas, ensuring low prices far off into the future.


But what about the poor coal people? Trump promised .......
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 09:12:45

dissident wrote:So where are all the other such credit crises over the last 70 years?


This above is why the peak oil movement collapsed. You're continuing to adjudicate an issue a full decade on that has been settled from the start.

It was actually Heinberg, as I recall, who helped manufacture the meme that peak oil caused the credit crisis as a hail-mary-pass to keep the movement relevant in lieu of low oil prices. It only gained traction with the faithful. ETP is, likewise, a similar apologia intended to prop up what's left of the remnant believers, and also failed. BTW, PStarr's own invention (Demand Dearth) is a joke as on the homepage today there's an article talking about demand picking up.

Image

You guys can keep beating on your drums but there aren't many left who are listening.

I am now wondering how long it will be before a decision is made to shut this forum down.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 12:00:16

GHung wrote:You haven't seen the last laugh yet. Thinking you have is just as silly as those who swore peak oil was in the past.


Not quite. I am having the last laugh because what happened to ASPO was expected based on their lack of activity and Jan having apparently run off and found himself another job awhile ago. Interestingly, he doesn't tend to mention on his LinkedIn profile that he was pimping stupid ideas for Happy McPeaksters..how is that for something to laugh about, you can't even mention who you worked before because of how badly it came out?

And ASPO might come back...but others who proclaimed peak oil had arrived didn't..some of them died waiting...so I'm not too concerned. Can you see how that would look, having their new ideas discredited just by attaching their old discredited name to the same old recycled nonsense? I, and anyone else with neurons doing their jobs would be laughing, even if they waited around until peak demand happened so they could claim to be right.

GHung wrote:Too many consumers. Not enough Planet.


I agree. But that isn't a peak oil angle, it is a Happy McDoomster one, and doesn't have near the near term kick of peak oil. A Happy McDoomster might be waiting around for decades for folks to notice, peak oil was all about the NOW. NOW rapture events are great for rationalizing a hunting cabin, or gun collecting, or gold buggery, or whatever. How do you explain to the significant other than you need a hunting cabin to hide from MZBs when you switch over to sea level rise instead? "Honey, we really need this hunting cabin and to stock it with supplies for when the seas rise enough to send hordes of suburbanites fleeing the encroaching ocean....a century from now...". See? It just doesn't work.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby GHung » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 12:53:21

AdamB wrote:
GHung wrote:Too many consumers. Not enough Planet.


I agree. But that isn't a peak oil angle, it is a Happy McDoomster one, and doesn't have near the near term kick of peak oil. A Happy McDoomster might be waiting around for decades for folks to notice, peak oil was all about the NOW. NOW rapture events are great for rationalizing a hunting cabin, or gun collecting, or gold buggery, or whatever. How do you explain to the significant other than you need a hunting cabin to hide from MZBs when you switch over to sea level rise instead? "Honey, we really need this hunting cabin and to stock it with supplies for when the seas rise enough to send hordes of suburbanites fleeing the encroaching ocean....a century from now...". See? It just doesn't work.


Again, you apply your narrow view, which is peak oil centric, to my thinking, which isn't. Indeed, you are far more peak oil obsessed than I am, as your posts continuously reveal. My position is, and has always been, that peak oil will be an artifact of overshoot; a very complex set of circumstances and arrangements that most people either don't have the capacity or the desire to try and understand.

On this forum, peak oil in its narrow sense, has been used as a strawman to avoid addressing a much broader process of systemic decline leading to collapse. You may be right that it won't matter much to the old farts that infest this board, but it matters in the context of humanity's future.

And your whole hunting cabin thingy is just another strawman diversion. It seems to matter a lot to you that some folks are happier since they "dropped out". It's OK, since I'm used to folks being threatened by lifestyles that don't jive with their world view. Seems to make them nervous. What they flippantly refer to as a prepper lifestyle, or doomers, is something very different to me. It's my life, and is working out quite well. It isn't about surviving some future none of us can be sure of. It's about avoiding society's traps and seeking a life well-lived. You don't like it when others are critical of your lifestyle, but seem eager to criticize theirs. It's really none of your business if some 'fool' wants to have a bug-out hunting cabin, just in case,, or if that pisses off his wife.

Funny that some of us can live very well on a fraction of the consumption and income considered 'nominal' by most, while being much more self-sufficient. Seems it's an affront to those who have bought into a bill of goods perpetrated by those whose only goal is to exploit them. I don't begrudge those folks, but have to wonder why they insist on repeatedly pointing out the flaws in my world view. They don't acknowledge that every kWh I don't use from the grid, and every gallon of gas I don't burn, is available to power their growth-based frenzy, until it's not.

And I understand that many (most?) don't have much choice or ability to change. Those with the most capacity to change have little or no incentive to do so. This is key to my assertions regarding systemic collapse.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Sys1 » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 13:33:39

Fossil fuels count for 80% of our primary energy needs. By the way, this 80% is a very low claim since most of "alternative" energies need oil/coal/natural gas at one point or another during the process. (like say melting sand around 2000°C to build a solar pannel)
From there, peak oil matters more than anything else regarding economy and civilisation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_energy

Now if some braindead like I see everyday on this site and many many more on financial newspapers think that oil is just a useless shit from the past that will be easily replaced by magical thinking, artificial intelligence super power, Santa Clauss or Alice in Wonderland technology, I personnaly don't give a s*** about it, but I suggest them to share their pointless viewpoint on some business friendly site.
By reading this thread a little upper, I see there are still people unable to understand that a 147$ barrel collapsed the economy back in 2007. They don't understand that current economy is artifically alive (just like Frankenstein "He's alive!") thanks to FED/BCE and their episilon interest rates.
The game will be over when oil will go up once again : central banks will be checkmated : put interest up, economy collapses, keep interest around 0%, inflation will skyrocket and economy collapses.
Nevertheless, I'm not a doomer because of our apparent dire future. I'm a doomer because I think people are unable to understand that our economic paradigm is far closer from a cancer in an organism than from a civilisation on a planet.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby GHung » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 13:52:05

Sys1 wrote:Fossil fuels count for 80% of our primary energy needs. By the way, this 80% is a very low claim since most of "alternative" energies need oil/coal/natural gas at one point or another during the process. (like say melting sand around 2000°C to build a solar pannel)
From there, peak oil matters more than anything else regarding economy and civilisation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_energy

Now if some braindead like I see everyday on this site and many many more on financial newspapers think that oil is just a useless shit from the past that will be easily replaced by magical thinking, artificial intelligence super power, Santa Clauss or Alice in Wonderland technology, I personnaly don't give a s*** about it, but I suggest them to share their pointless viewpoint on some business friendly site.
By reading this thread a little upper, I see there are still people unable to understand that a 147$ barrel collapsed the economy back in 2007. They don't understand that current economy is artifically alive (just like Frankenstein "He's alive!") thanks to FED/BCE and their episilon interest rates.
The game will be over when oil will go up once again : central banks will be checkmated : put interest up, economy collapses, keep interest around 0%, inflation will skyrocket and economy collapses.
Nevertheless, I'm not a doomer because of our apparent dire future. I'm a doomer because I think people are unable to understand that our economic paradigm is far closer from a cancer in an organism than from a civilisation on a planet.


Agree to a point, but It's clear that humans will literally move mountains, create mountains of debt and kill their fellow humans, to support their fossil fuel/resource addictions. Only when the economy and/or ecosphere no longer have the ability to support these extraction schemes, even via debt creation and accounting fraud, will peak everything (excepting peak delusion and dieoff) become unavoidable.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Sys1 » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 15:17:22

GHung : Absolutely. Everytime I watch a business channel, I feel in the tone of journalists a powerfull hate towards everything that limits mankind thirst for our beloved God growth, aka money :
- Global warming? An hoax created by China communists!
- Peak oil? Impossible, the stoneage didn't end because we have runned out of stone! Anyway, we have Tesla cars!
- Exponential debt? Nevermind, we will create more debt to solve the problem! Look how great Greece is now!
- End of growth? Malthus old story! We will conquer space with artificial intelligence and we will upload our brains in computers in which we will play Starwars in virtual reality! We won't ever die thanks to Google!

Back in 2008, it drove me mad when I explained people what peak oil means. Lack of wisdom...
Now, I simply enjoy my life. People have to figure out by themselves the truth.
In 2005, I made the good choices when I discovered what peak oil is and how to "survive" in the sunset of our civilisation : never getting into debt, finding a crisis proof job (public elementary school teacher in France), getting closer with relatives to better protect each other.
Without the work from ASPO people (like Jean Laherre, Colin Campbell...), I would have made poor choices, and the consequences would have been potentially desastrous at least on a personnal level. Never will I thank them enough for that.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 16:16:29

GHung wrote:On this forum, peak oil in its narrow sense, has been used as a strawman to avoid addressing a much broader process of systemic decline leading to collapse.


Define "addressing"? There's what, a dozen active posters here at most? What good is to come from "addressing" limits to growth for the umteen millionth time when this group is so tiny and insular?

ASPO actually had global visibility. If something useful were to come out of peak oil, it would probably be out of them, or from The Oil Drum before it, but now both have packed it in and we're down to a few stalwart perma-doom bloggers like Gail.

GHung wrote:Funny that some of us can live very well on a fraction of the consumption and income considered 'nominal' by most, while being much more self-sufficient.


I catch a similar "my lifestyle is better than your lifestyle but I get no respect for it" vibe here as I do from PStarr bragging about his solar panels.

This seems to be a big part of the motivation for what's left of the "addressing" going on, which is sort of a simmering resentment that powerdown doomers have with everyone else. I can't imagine this resentment would be so strong if BAU were not continuing apace. Cassandra-syndrome, as it were. Seeing everyone continue to stroll on with their Starbucks lattes, ever-smarter gadgets, and happy-motoring while doomers are busy hand-grinding their wheat-berries can generate envy, as people simply are not wired for austerity.

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Re: ASPO-USA: What Changes after 12 Years?

Unread postby GHung » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 16:46:57

What good is to come from "addressing" limits to growth for the umteen millionth time when this group is so tiny and insular?


Seems a lot more productive than coming here every day to ridicule doomers and peak oilers; posting silly gifs, because their predictions didn't pan out just as they predicted. Meanwhile, depletion continues at astounding rates, and the list of consequences grows daily. Since 2005? Billions of barrels gone forever, billions of tons of greenhouse gases released into our atmosphere, and about a billion more humans to face those consequences. At least they can't say nobody told them so.

As for ASPO; I'm certain that the broader discussions revolving around peak oil and depletion have had a large impact in terms of awareness, whether or not it had much impact on human's collective behavior. Further, the discussions on The Oil Drum were far-ranging and of a much higher caliber than anything I've ever seen here.

Anyway, there's no harm in some folks hanging around to hold the fort. Depletion is relentless, and assured, and if just a few more folks understand the transitions facing humanity, I consider that a good thing.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby tita » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 17:36:54

Sys1 - Funny. I really think that at some point, we won't be able to increase our global oil supply, which will then decrease along with our GDP. And not for a lack of demand. I also think that we will hit soon some economic downturns. First in the correction of over-hyped stocks, and later with some more fundamental limit to the possible growth we can get. And I definitely think that oil played some role in the great recession following 2008, maybe the trigger that pushed the fragile house of cards (or houses of CDS). And I think it will play some role when the next wave of supply-demand imbalance happens.

Maybe I don't understand peak oil like you because I'm not a "believer" in peak oil, or whatever belief I could put in it. I try to understand the dynamic of oil over our economy and politics. Call this some moderate POV, but I'm quite pessimistic about what is coming to us. And a lot of people on this earth already suffer of the consequences of the oil depletion dynamic.

I just don't believe in dogmas, or twist reality to continue to believe in a dogma, like the "peak conventional oil happened in 2005". If it helps you, then good for you. Just don't try to impose it.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 19:22:09

This is the last peak oil website on earth. ASPO-USA is gone....so is ASPO-international and all the ASPO national offices around the world. The lights have gone out. Darkness is advancing on the last glimmers of light.

We're surrounded by trolls and hostiles. The situation is grim and difficult for peak oil doomers.

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I'm not sure how much longer we can hold out here against the attacking trolls and cornucopians.

But I wouldn't have it any other way. By Jove, I am not covetous for gold, Nor care I who doth feed upon my cost; It yearns me not if men my garments wear; Such outward things dwell not in my desires. But if it be a sin to covet honour, I am the most offending soul alive.

God's peace! I would not lose so great an honour As one man more methinks would share from me For the best hope I have. O, do not wish one more! Rather proclaim it, That he which hath no stomach to this fight,
Let him depart; We would not die in that man's company That fears his fellowship to die with us.
This website is call'd Peak Oil dot com. He that outlives this day, and comes safe home, Will stand a tip-toe when this website is nam'd, And rouse him at the name of peak oil. He that shall live this day, and see old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours, And say "To-morrow we feast for Peak Oil dot com." Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars, And say "These wounds I had for Peak Oil dot com." Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot, But he'll remember, with advantages, What posts he made on Peak Oil dot com. Then shall our names, Familiar in his mouth as household words—
Plant, Psarr and Onlooker, SeaGypsy and Tanana, Cog and Dissident—Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red. This story shall the good man teach his son;And Peak Oil dot com shall ne'er be forgotten,
From this day to the ending of the world, But we in it shall be rememberèd-
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers. We posters at Peak Oil dot com.

Cheers!
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby baha » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 19:59:48

You see...Plantagenet is a woman professor in english literature. :-D Told you.
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.
I will see your google and raise you an infinity!

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 20:29:27

baha wrote:You see...Plantagenet is a woman professor in english literature. :-D Told you.


Baha is a hermophodite who flunked out of engineering. You heard it here. :)

Cheers!
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby baha » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 21:54:35

Hermaphrodite is the proper spelling. I'll own it. But it is completely natural :) How many men do you know with greasy fingers that play piano?

You are good, that is very insightful. Now will you own it?
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.
I will see your google and raise you an infinity!

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 22:47:59

baha wrote:Hermaphrodite.... I'll own it.....it is completely natural


Yup. About 1 in 2000 people have characteristics of hermaphroditism....the modern PC term is "intersex."

baha wrote:You are good, that is very insightful.


Thank you.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!

Cheers!
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 22:57:05

Actually, consumption is a peak oil angle, and for obvious reasons: without increasing demand, there will be no need to increase production as much, which means a production peak can be postponed significantly.

That's also why it's a waste of time to discuss these issues with AdamB and others who lack common sense. Best to use the ignore function.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby baha » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 23:24:17

Wow, I just read the myriad definitions of hermaphrodite...That's scary :)

I am a 100% male person who likes music and wild flowers. Get over it :P

Here is the proper term for it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Androgyny
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.
I will see your google and raise you an infinity!

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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