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Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dissident » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 10:40:24

onlooker wrote:Also, would not die off of plankton reduce dramatically oxygen levels for land creatures?


I believe the fossil record does not show any major depletion of O2 from the atmosphere during warming events. O2 would have been reduced mostly by more biomass burning during warming events. The total reservoir of O2 in the atmosphere and oceans is vast and reducing its production by 50% would not change the concentrations dramatically over short periods of time.

Also, the upper ocean would actually experience more net primary productivity under warming. if the anoxia killed off the source of the detritus that produced it, then it would be dramatically self-limiting. There is no indication that the detritus rain attenuates during pink limestone epochs. In fact, there is good reason to believe that it intensifies and pushes the system further into the anoxic regime.

Currently the detritus rain is produced by oxic biochemistry linked life cycles (phytoplankton use sunlight to grow and sustain a population of zooplankton grazers). If the phytoplankton collapses during warming events due to toxic side effects, then something must replace it. I am not enough of an ocean biologist to say if there are phytoplankton that can resist H2S exposure. But I can wave my hands based on chemistry: H2S is about 3 times more soluble than CO2 in water at 308 K, so it would accumulate to some extent but would not be trapped in the ocean water. If the whole carbon cycle of the oceans is to be sustained, then phytoplankton and zooplankton must have a high tolerance for H2S and one would expect this just from natural selection. Over the last 500+ million years these micro-organisms have been exposed selective pressure by warming events.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.4 ... 4.0941/pdf

It seems that phytoplankton can actually produce H2S and uses reduced metal chemistry (e.g. formation of metal sulfide compounds, which are highly insoluble) to detoxify from excess H2S. This is yet more evidence why it cannot be safely assumed that H2S will shut down the plankton activity in the oceans. Something must maintain the detritus rain and its anoxic remineralization to maintain H2S (and CH4) production).
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 10:43:05

dohboi wrote:Yes, 'scientific reticence' sometimes drives me crazy.


Guy has pointed out that Mann is in the mainstream who is allowed to publish ONLY because he includes those waffle terms. I presume Mann knows the truth, but hey, you want to be a celebrity and not purged from mainstream exposure.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 10:54:26

but hey, you want to be a celebrity and not purged from mainstream exposure.-----
celebrity = big bucks
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 12:00:34

Thanks for the link, dis, and for the stuff about the crabs, T...I had some fuzzy recollection of some such thing, but couldn't put my finger on it...age?? :-D
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See no methane.....

Unread postby Whitefang » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 09:19:26

Repost from 2013: Robert S. on Methane.

https://robertscribbler.com/tag/methane-tracker/

Since then things have not been getting colder up there, water and land temp. have increased a lot.
If you were in control of armies, banking etc. would you want others to know of our present situation?

Anyway, it does not matter, but being aware of your mortality brings the fruit of living each day as it comes, since it might be your last we'd better do our best, whatever it is.

Why would ocean Chemistry change overnight?
Ocean overturning? Sudden abrupt flip flop?

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 23:25:51

GLOBAL MEAN NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING EXPONENTIALLY

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... p_activity
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dissident » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 10:34:48

dohboi wrote:GLOBAL MEAN NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING EXPONENTIALLY

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... p_activity


This actually makes sense. The moisture content of the atmosphere is increasing exponentially as per the Clasius Clapeyron relation and most of the atmospheric moisture resides near the surface. The vertical slice of specific humidity is almost hyperbolic but deep convection can make it exponential. So the radiative transfer impact of the increasing moisture content in the atmosphere is concentrated near the surface.

This subject is interesting for the Arctic. As the sea ice reaches full zero volume and extent in September sometime in the next decade, the winter time recovery could be greatly counteracted by the evapouration moisture layer near the sea surface. The Arctic winter marine boundary layer could be moist enough to trap the IR emissions from the sea water and sustain a near surface micro-climate that suppresses ice growth. Of course life is not so simple, since strong winds can blow off this "fur coat" and promote freezing. But overall, this effect should not be fobbed off.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 20:53:56

"winter time recovery could be greatly counteracted by the evapouration moisture layer near the sea surface. The Arctic winter marine boundary layer could be moist enough to trap the IR emissions from the sea water and sustain a near surface micro-climate that suppresses ice growth"

Thanks, dis. This is what I have been trying to explain here and elsewhere, but people just don't seem to be able to grasp it, even though there is plenty of paleo-evidence (and just plain physics) to support it.
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High winter surface sea temp.

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 07:39:14

That Facebook linky is pretty hazy, at least the graph/figure with time/surface temp.


Allright, so these past few winters with incredible high temperatures, rain on top of the northpole.....are not caused by methane burbs but a natural side effect of lack of sea ice?
I thought the methane emissions were partly resonsible for the extreme temp. lately, together with arctic amp. Jet breaking up, polar front and vortex acting wierd.

I were suprised by the abnormalities in wintertime, you would expect extreme summer temp.with high methane concentrations.

Very curious what will happen next, after the ice is history.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 08:33:31

I think this quoted passage captures quite well what happens next and what the scientific community increasingly believes will happen
"Few people understand that the Arctic sea ice “death spiral” represents more than just a major ecological upheaval in the world’s Far North. The decline of Arctic sea ice also has profound global climatic effects, or feedbacks, that are already intensifying global warming and have the potential to destabilize the climate system. Indeed, we are not far from the moment when the feedbacks themselves will be driving the change every bit as much as our continuing emission of billions of tons of carbon dioxide annually. "
https://e360.yale.edu/features/as_arcti ... fy_wadhams
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 09:38:58

Not exactly climate chaos but somewhat related.

I’m in Florida. We have our small apartment building in Philly. Oil heat. Philly like much of the country is getting a prolonged cold spell.

It ran out of oil Thursday night. It took the oil company until 5pm to get someone there. They sent a technician who apparently put in 5 gallons and left. That didn’t make it until midnight.

The oil company service desk is swamped, half hour on hold to talk to someone. And all she can do is take messages because no one in the company will talk to her. This is a big oil delivery company. She can tell me just about nothing. Apparently the supervisors are all out running delivery trucks.

The point, yes this is extreme cold, but not some major shift in the climate. People can’t deal with even minor changes. The system is very fragile and marginal. I could find no news of oil delivery problems on google. Yet my building manager and the oil company are telling me many, many, many households are without heat.

I’m starting to wonder if the oil companies are having difficulty obtaining oil?

How would we react if there was some truely significant shift in the climate?
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 09:49:43

Thanks for the Wadham update, here is a recent Beckwith assesment: dec 2017.


https://paulbeckwith.net/2017/12/25/the ... nce-talks/

Early snow retreat on the West Siberian Plains warms air temperatures, amplifying Rossby waves, causing a ridge and warming over Laptev Sea (thus rapid Arctic ice loss). Large cyclones, now stronger and lasting longer cause sea ice spreading with more melt. Strong Antarctic Circumpolar Ocean Currents, driven by stronger winds cause increased upwelling in places (depending on bathymetry) reducing overturning circulation (downwelling). Sea ice rheology, surface melt ponds, filaments and mesoscale eddies are all messed up.

YouTube predictions from februari last year.....bit outdated!
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 13:40:50

Newfie wrote:Not exactly climate chaos but somewhat related.

I’m in Florida. We have our small apartment building in Philly. Oil heat. Philly like much of the country is getting a prolonged cold spell.

It ran out of oil Thursday night. It took the oil company until 5pm to get someone there. They sent a technician who apparently put in 5 gallons and left. That didn’t make it until midnight.

The oil company service desk is swamped, half hour on hold to talk to someone. And all she can do is take messages because no one in the company will talk to her. This is a big oil delivery company. She can tell me just about nothing. Apparently the supervisors are all out running delivery trucks.

The point, yes this is extreme cold, but not some major shift in the climate. People can’t deal with even minor changes. The system is very fragile and marginal. I could find no news of oil delivery problems on google. Yet my building manager and the oil company are telling me many, many, many households are without heat.

I’m starting to wonder if the oil companies are having difficulty obtaining oil?

How would we react if there was some truely significant shift in the climate?



Newfie during the 2013 cold snap I had to go to the gas station and get 5 gallon cans of diesel to keep the oil furnace running for two days until a delivery truck could fill up the 275 gallon tank. My advice tell your handyman this simple trick, road diesel runs fine in 99% of oil furnaces and though you are paying road tax on the fuel it is a whole lot cheaper than buying new plumbing for the building and dealing with structural damage from burst pipes!
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 14:40:28

Wore myself out in that one already. I’ve even got Jerry cans in the basement. One tenent was all ready to do it but wife vetoed him. Can’t get building manager to do it.

VERY frustrating

Light a candle or curse the dark.

People, baby!
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 21:28:14

Best wishes, Newf...

meanwhile

Enhanced H2S production alongside RCP 8.5 projected CH4 releases ... creating a Permian-Triassic style feedback loop to destroy ozone:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 28384/full
Title: Role of hydrogen sulfide in a Permian-Triassic boundary ozone collapse

Abstract:
Using a three-dimensional chemistry-climate model of the troposphere and stratosphere, we find that hydrogen sulfide alone is unlikely to directly affect stratospheric ozone, even for hydrogen sulfide emission rates as large as 5000 Tg(S) per year. However, we also find that large quantities of hydrogen sulfide create a significant decrease in tropospheric hydroxyl radical, leading to a commensurate increase in atmospheric methane. Therefore a large methane flux (possibly from methane clathrate destabilization, Siberian traps or hydrothermal vent complexes) combined with a large hydrogen sulfide oceanic flux is much more likely to lead to an ozone collapse than methane or hydrogen sulfide alone with implications to the Permian-Triassic boundary extinction 250 million years ago.

-
... lower hydroxyl concentration increases the GWP of methane since it is not removed from the atmosphere as rapidly. It also aids in stratospheric cloud production to destroy ozone.

thanks to ap at asif for this...
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 03:23:28

Lucky we have a ‘stable genius’ to steer us safely away from Climate Chaos
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 04:53:51

Newfie wrote:... ran out of oil Thursday night. It took the oil company until 5pm to get someone there. They sent a technician who apparently put in 5 gallons and left. That didn’t make it until midnight.

The oil company service desk is swamped, half hour on hold to talk to someone. And all she can do is take messages because no one in the company will talk to her. This is a big oil delivery company. She can tell me just about nothing. Apparently the supervisors are all out running delivery trucks.

The point, yes this is extreme cold, but not some major shift in the climate. People can’t deal with even minor changes. The system is very fragile and marginal. I could find no news of oil delivery problems on google. Yet my building manager and the oil company are telling me many, many, many households are without heat.

I’m starting to wonder if the oil companies are having difficulty obtaining oil?

How would we react if there was some truely significant shift in the climate?


Had the same situation with my furnace back in 2013 when we got 40 inches of snow here in Connecticut. Oil company couldn't deliver for 5 days. Didn't help that the town failed to plow the street for 5 days either. Road diesel or kerosene works fine.

Here's some News on the fuel oil delivery situation.. It's happening up and down the East coast.

https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&tbm ... efHkiNYtTE

Pennsylvania: ... .Heating oil demand has jumped in recent days with some desperate to fill empty tanks, said Jennifer D. Goldbach, vice president of business development for Rhoads Energy in Lancaster, whose companies deliver in Berks, Lancaster, Chester, Lebanon and Montgomery counties.

The company averaged 874 calls per day the past two weeks but received 3,816 calls on Tuesday, a sign of how many people were scrambling to heat their homes, she said.

"Over the first two working days of the year (Tuesday and Wednesday), our total volume of gallons of heating oil and propane delivered was up almost 30 percent over the same two days in 2017," Goldbach said.

Many customers sign up for automatic delivery, so the companies track when they'll need oil and deliver it accordingly, she said.

Those on the "will call" list typically can get a delivery in a day or two after ordering it, but now with demand so high might have to wait four or five days, she said, making it important that they not wait until their tanks are empty to call.

Employees are working long hours to keep up, and workers from other departments are answering the phones, which are ringing off the hooks, but the companies still can't bring oil and propane immediately to those in need.

"We're doing out best, but that's a problem," Goldbach said. "The volume of fuel we're delivering is just unbelievable."

... POTTSVILLE — The phones are ringing constantly.

“We are so overwhelmed,” Denise Stoyer, a dispatcher at Jack Rich Inc., Frackville, said Tuesday, the busiest day she can remember in her 12 years with the oil delivery company. Temperatures have been below freezing in Schuylkill County for days, increasing the demand for fuel.

The cold spell isn’t going to let up anytime soon. The National Weather Service, State College, said the high for today will be 24 degrees. Thursday’s predicted to be 20 degrees with evening temperatures as low as zero, and Friday and Saturday will struggle to get above 10. Sunday’s high is forecast for 21 degrees.

Heating companies said they are pressed with a high demand for oil and only have so much time and resources to devote to the effort because of constraints such as time, drivers and customers they have to service before providing services to others..

“We have all our trucks on the road,” Stoyer said.

She said the phones started ringing at 8 a.m. Tuesday when they opened for the day. She said the drivers have been averaging 35 to 40 stops a day. There were also several online orders over the weekend. Other companies were even calling because they could not meet the demand of their own customers.


BTW: .... The blower motor on my oil furnace died yesterday when it was 10 F outside. Fortunately, the tech was able to fix it in a couple of hours. It doesn't take long for a house to chill out at that temp.

Locally, the Housatonic river froze over - shore to shore. That hasn't happened since 1961.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby baha » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 07:31:08

It is -2f on the roof this morning. I have both mini-splits running wide open. They are rated to -5f. The house is 68. The sun is coming up but I am leaving the window boards in for now.

And I know there are people out there lots colder than me...whose idea was this anyway? I bet the weather in Siberia is better :)

I just have to survive the day. It will warm to the 40's tomorrow, and the 70's by Friday! That's OK for Colorado but this is NC. It's not supposed to be like this 8O

Oops - My wife just got up and said "Shutup, get out from under that blanket, and light the gas heater"....women :)
Last edited by baha on Sun 07 Jan 2018, 07:57:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 07:38:23

-18F here in VT. It wont get above freezing here before Thursday and then the forecast is for some freezing rain before the next dip. Normal January weather actually but the wood pile has taken a big hit this week. :|
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 08:02:21

It’s just so stupid. There are 3 or 4 jerry cans sitting in the basement. Ya think I can get someone to go fill me up and dump em in the tank? NO!

Folks would rather sit in the cold and bitch than do something constructive.

That’s the message to take away, sure some folks are resourceful and do what is required. Others will just sit and die.

AND....all this complaining about unprescedented cold. Baloney!

It used to get this cold in the recent history. Tons of evidence. My Father told me that guys used to drive their cars on the bay in the winter. He had eel spears to walk out on the ice to get eels. The Delaware Bay has old ice harbors from days gone by. Reading the old navigation direction for the Deleware River talks about how it is sometimes impassible because ice.

We have become accustomed to the warm stable climate and are SHOCKED when weather patterns shift outside this abnormal narrow range.
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