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Create this topic, so we can share links and discuss about the entire bleak economic situation worldwide.

India's Untouchables in even more perilous situation now amid these turbulent times

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/15/asia/ind ... =hvper.com

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The test when the world economy will reach bottom is the number of unemployed
I know it's not really true but that will be a good measure for every non-economist
there should be a bounce when the lock-downs are lifted
afterward will be the test , airlines , auto industry are set for hard times

sparky wrote:.
The test when the world economy will reach bottom is the number of unemployed
I know it's not really true but that will be a good measure for every non-economist
there should be a bounce when the lock-downs are lifted
afterward will be the test , airlines , auto industry are set for hard times

I would agree that total global unemployment would seem like a reasonable back-of-the-envelope layman's yardstick for finding the bottom. It's likely leading vs. coincident as an indicator, but it's decent and straightforward.

Of course, since surveys measure it and some governments many not be too accurate re honestly reporting the data, there's the potential accuracy issue.

And yes, clearly different industries are going to have VERY different fates in the recovery. Trying to reason that out seems to be a popular topic for various economists recently.

Naturally, trying to accurately predict that means trying to predict human behavior. For me, since logic often fails, I'm REALLY bad at that in the short term.

Nah, Worldwide depression makes this the perfect time for the Elites to create the UN International Banking System and switch everyone over to UN regulated currency so things are "fair".

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The UN is a talking shop , useful for public relations
the money side is handled by the IMF , special drawing rights are where the action is

https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets ... -Right-SDR

and of course this would signal the relegation of the US dollar to a secondary position

From Reuters ........U.S. opposes massive liquidity IMF boost
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-imf- ... 1Y1QU?il=0

At some point I will no longer be the only one on this site who has actively searched for the Fenn treasure.

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The question now is " is it going to be a five years depression or is it going to be something new ? "

I think this crisis will see a re-alignment of the world countries with some dropping and others rising

The Black Death bought about the end of feudalism
https://listverse.com/2015/01/28/10-goo ... ack-death/

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The black death only shoveled earth over the already dead body of feudalism
leprosy was devastating Europe for centuries and really nobody minded much
the kings didn't need feudal levies anymore and were breaking the power of their vassals using mercenaries

the biggest shocks are only the road signs pointing out "dead end road "

And this was about 1 month ago
https://www.google.com/amp/s/wap.busine ... 677_1.html

I’m quietly watching India and Bangladesh. My theory has been that we will see the full, unmitigated extent of the virus there. And that is the virus is as bad as predicted then there will be many dead, and that great loss of life will cause a mental depression that will send the market to a second bottom. And it will reinforce the depression.

Now it may work out that there will be no great loss of life there, and then the markets will not see that second bottom.

At this moment it’s not clear how that will work out.

Actually, I am more looking at a resurgence of Corona in places where it is supposedly under control already. To see if people have developed immunity.

Yup, that’s fascinating also.

Yesterday taking a walk we were joined by a local fellow. He was just beaming proud that Dominica has beaten the drug. They have stopped the virus on the island. Then he went on to talk about various people he knew who would be coming back soon.

What he did not understand and I did not have the heart to tell him, was that they did not hear the virus and that when people return they will bring the virus with them. Some folks will figure that out, hard to tell how many. Working our way out of this mess will be interesting.

Newfie wrote:I’m quietly watching India and Bangladesh. My theory has been that we will see the full, unmitigated extent of the virus there. And that is the virus is as bad as predicted then there will be many dead, and that great loss of life will cause a mental depression that will send the market to a second bottom. And it will reinforce the depression.

Now it may work out that there will be no great loss of life there, and then the markets will not see that second bottom.

At this moment it’s not clear how that will work out.

That's an interesting idea.

I keep thinking that SOME kind of bad news re COVID-19 (I was thinking in more of economic issues over time), will cause a deeper market bottom at some point. But yes, if it runs rampant in parts of the third world and people see how ugly it could get with poor medical care, that certainly could erode a lot of optimism.

The main good thing at that point is that for the regions affected, to the extent immunity is a reliable and long lasting thing, herd immunity would be solidly established in such areas at that point (at great cost in lives).

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the problem with using India and Bangladesh , or Pakistan or most of black Africa is that their statistics suck mightily
either they are loosy in the collection , manipulated in the sorting out or plain twisted in the publication .

if their numbers could be trusted Bielorussia would be good since they had no lock-down but they just don't

the best is Sweden , and Israel , the former didn't do a full lock-down , the second did one for the elderly
for both the situation is changing as I write

sparky wrote:.
the problem with using India and Bangladesh , or Pakistan or most of black Africa is that their statistics suck mightily
either they are loosy in the collection , manipulated in the sorting out or plain twisted in the publication .

if their numbers could be trusted Bielorussia would be good since they had no lock-down but they just don't

the best is Sweden , and Israel , the former didn't do a full lock-down , the second did one for the elderly
for both the situation is changing as I write

Excellent points. Unfortunately, data from unreliable sources (historically) have to be taken with a grain of salt, compared to data from sources that have been proven to have integrity.

And it's a tragedy to a certain extent, as we need all the reliable data we can get for such circumstances, in order to make the best practical decisions.

I'd forgotten to even check on Israel, so thanks for the reminder on that.

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The Swedish strategy is rather simple ,
since they have a very good medical infrastructure , their only concern is that it not be overwhelmed
the virus will kill eventually as much has it can ,
lock-down doesn't prevent it it simply flatten the curve and make the epidemic last longer , at an incredible cost

Should Sweden be right they would see their cases go higher first then drop down fast

Equatorial peoples might have decent vitamin D levels whether they supplement or not
They might already have taken some malaria medication recently that could activate any zinc they have in reserve

Mumbai's hospitals are pretty grim at this point

I would guess that personal hygiene habits could enter into it, note singapore and japan vs san francisco and nyc and orlando, fl.