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Nuclear War, Dieoffs, and Doomer Porn! Pt. 2

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

Start of World War III?

Unread postby westexas » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 12:59:15

Following is an "interesting" item that was posted on Drudge.

With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, I suppose it's easy to be critical of Neville Chamberlain, and his attempts to achieve "Peace in our time," but when faced with actual choices that might involve military confrontation here and now, one has more sympathy for Chamberlain's dilemma.

EDWARD LUCAS: I hope I'm wrong but historians may look back and say this was the start of World War III
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2605578/Edward-Lucas-I-hope-Im-wrong-historians-look-say-start-World-War-III.html

Deep in the flat and featureless landscape of eastern Ukraine, it is all too ­possible that the outline of World War III is taking shape.

Whipped up by the Kremlin ­propaganda machine and led by Russian ­military intelligence, armed men are erecting road blocks, storming police stations and ripping down the country’s flag.

They are demolishing not just their own country — bankrupt, ill-run and beleaguered — but also the post-war order that has kept most of Europe and us, here in Britain, safe and free for decades.

Vladimir Putin is striking at the heart of the West.

His target is our inability to work with allies in defence against common threats. The profoundly depressing fact is that the events of the past few months, as Russia has annexed the Crimea and suppressed opposition in Ukraine, have shown the West to be divided, humiliated and powerless in the face of these land grabs.

We are soon to face a bleak choice. We can chose to surrender any responsibility we have to protect Ukraine and the Baltic states — almost certainly Putin’s next target — from further Russian incursion. Or we can mount a last-ditch attempt to deter Russia from furthering its imperial ambitions.

If we do choose to resist Putin, we will risk a terrifying military escalation, which I do not think it an exaggeration to say could bring us to the brink of nuclear war.

Putin knows that. And he believes we will choose surrender. . . .

If the West does stand up to ­Russia, Putin will put its nuclear forces on alert, all the while decrying our ‘aggressive behaviour’.

As the centenary of the Great War in July approaches, historians are vying to pinpoint the chain of events which started that conflict.

I may be wrong, but in 100 years time, will their successors look back at the events in Ukraine to make sense of the beginnings of the next world conflagration?
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 13:29:46

As hateful as it looks in retrospect Appeasement created a 18-24 month time period in which Chamberlain was able to get Parliament to start rebuilding the military forces which had been neglected and ignored for a decade. Without that rebuilding effort the Germans of 1938 were much more ready for the next war than the UK was.

Things started falling apart with the Arab Spring in 2011. Putin has spent the intervening time getting ready and making plans. NATO the UK/USA/Canada have gone forward with plans actually weakening their military capabilities and reducing their ability to respond in an effective manner.

There doesn't need to be a World War III, but there will be a realignment of world power. The old world order is fading fast. Resistance is futile. We will be assimilated.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby Paulo1 » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 13:42:24

re:

"Vladimir Putin is striking at the heart of the West. "

Maybe I'm an isolationist, but how is the Ukraine 'the heart of the west'? IMHO defending Ukraine is overreach. Canada has a large Ukaranian population on the Prarries which is Harper country, thus posturing is expected for political purposes. However, if Harper tried to stretch his tenuous majority to involve military participation against Putin I don't think he would have any success.

Imagine if Canada snuggled up to China and/or Russia. Imagine if Canada was to simply sell all bitumen to China? Do you think the USA would be justified in meddling in Canada's affairs like Russia is doing in Ukraine? How about if Canada was considering to make a military alliance with China? Would it be fair to say that China would be stifled? Mexico with China?

What would the USA do if Russia tried to intervene? That is what is happening, imo.

This whole thing reminds me of my brother-in-law trying to put his kids to bed. "Now, I really mean it this time". "This time I really mean it".

There is no appetite for war at this point and I am not sure what the real 'red line' is? Poland? Maybe. Too many mixed messages.

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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 14:00:58

Bizmark is one of the last people you would call a liberal appeaser but he knew a thing or two about when to turn on the screws of machtspolitiek and when to back off.
Anyone who has ever looked into the glazed eyes of a soldier dying on the battlefield will think hard before starting a war.
A little caution outflanks a large cavalry.
And most of all....
The whole of the Balkans is not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier.
If Putin is stupid enough he is welcome to the diplomatic fall out.
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby Pops » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 14:02:53

"This time I really mean it"

Ha, but brother actually has a reason to threaten, what is our excuse?

There is a contingent in the US that thinks they really do have a right to have their nose up everyones business, God loves me and hates you, all that.

I wish the Ukrainians all the luck but it isn't our business - aside from the billion in loan guarantees we just gave them to keep the gas on . . .
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby westexas » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 14:05:49

Re: dorlomin

Note the the article referenced the Baltic states, not the Balkans.

We are soon to face a bleak choice. We can chose to surrender any responsibility we have to protect Ukraine and the Baltic states — almost certainly Putin’s next target — from further Russian incursion.

Re: Paulo

Poland is of course an interesting choice, from a historical perspective, in regard to a line in the sand.
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 14:08:14

westexas wrote:Note the the article referenced the Baltic states, not the Balkans.

Its not the Baltics and I know, its the principle.

Edited, ethno-nationalist civil wars have a habit of turning very ugly and being much bigger drains on manpower than they are ever worth. The break up of Yugoslavia, the USSR and USAs recent involvement in Afghanistan, US in Iraq and so on are all testaments to how this kind of things spins out of control. The war you start fighting is very often a very different one to the one you end up losing. Bismarks quote is to be clear eyed about what your objectives are and if they are not worth the cost or not worth the risk dont stick your hand into a mincer. Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are all now part of the EU and increasingly western. Ukraine is a non entity backwater where two groups of oligarchs are scrambling over the meagre gains. For a backward, fading power such as Russia in its near abroad such risks might be worth it. They look good to the dull, gaping masses watching TV. But what is there to gain? For the west, what is there to lose? Some province of a gangster state no one cares about to another gangster state.

But if Russia is dumb enough to play for a land grab then sanctions time, this time real sanctions. Spring has come, the gas weapon a pop gun under the warm summer sun. Perfect timing to cut the oligarchs off from their beloved yachts in Monaco and flats in Chelsea.
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby Karle » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 14:34:24

It looks like, especially considering that since today the German army is marching East the first time since 1941.

I have no idea how insane our leaders are, of if they know nothing about history: Germany is sending six fighter jets to the baltic states to the Russian front yard.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausl ... 98196.html

As unbelievable as that is, I do not see WW III. Everybody including Putin and Obummer know (hopefully) that is not possible to restrict a war until to a certain level. So that would for sure escalate to a nuclear war, and the total destruction of mankind.

Who do you think would push that button?
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 14:35:50

Karle wrote:Germany is sending six fighter jets to the baltic states to the Russian front yard.

Six jets. My god, army group center reborn.
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 15:16:22

d – “…this time real sanctions. Spring has come, the gas weapon a pop gun under the warm summer sun.” Unfortunately NG marketing doesn’t hinge on month to month or even season to season demand swings. Not even in the NG rich US: even here winter NG supplies have to be sent to storage during the low demand summer months in order to meet winter demand. Even without a disruption neither the US nor the EU can handle winter demand without the fuel that goes into storage during warmer times. Now contemplate an insufficient summer storage volume in the EU coupled with a decrease of direct deliveries during the winter. Not a pretty picture.

From Bloomberg: Europe’s mildest winter since 2007 has left the region with enough natural gas in storage to cover any future disruption in flows from Ukraine for about 45 days. European inventories were 49 percent full as of March 2, from 37 percent a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, a lobby group of pipeline operators in Brussels. That’s equal to about 1 1/2 months of imports from pipelines running through Ukraine, said Oswald Clint, a senior analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in London.

IOW if they tap storage to meet demands during the summer months within 2 months there will be no reserves left for the winter months. And that could mean EU businesses shutting down and maybe a few citizens freezing to death next winter due to events this summer. The best hope for the EU is that Russia wants to avoid the revenue lose. OTOH if sanctions inflict enough financial hardship on Russia they may have nothing to lose and everything to gain by cutting of NG supplies. Again, I'm reminded of the terrorist pointing a gun at his own head and saying: "Don't move...or I'll hoot".
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby basil_hayden » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 17:03:08

All it would take is one good conscription to turn things around.

Who knows? Maybe Putin provides the reasons for the polarized USA to find common ground in the next few years.
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 17:51:51

dorlomin wrote:if Russia is dumb enough to play for a land grab then sanctions time, this time real sanctions.


There is no "if" about it---Russia has already done a land grab in the Crimea and got hit with wimpy sanctions.

Its possible that a Russian land grab into eastern Ukraine will result in tougher sanctions but I wouldn't count on it. Obama, following in the path of Neville Chamberlain before him, seems set on trying to appease Putin rather than making him back down.

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The settlement of the Ukrainian problem, which has now been achieved is, in my view, only the prelude to a larger settlement in which all Europe may find peace. This morning I had another talk with the Russian Chancellor, Comrade Putin, and here is the paper which bears his name upon it as well as mine.... An American President has returned from Russia bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time.
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby sparky » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 17:53:22

.
@ dolormin
"Six jets. My god, army group center reborn."

That would be Heeresgruppe North ... :)
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 18:01:48

sparky wrote:.
Heeresgruppe Nord
*cough*
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby americandream » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 18:32:55

Chances of another war for the next 5 decades is remote. Modern day capitlism is a different beast from the of the '30's. There is a struggle between the elites for control of the system and Eurasia is the ultimate prize as the system marches towards bigger regions such an Eurasian free trades one. With the former Soviet states in the Russian sphere, Russia will have greater influence. Having said that, war will not occur as the elites recognise that no matter how the power is spread, the preservation of globalising consumerism is the ultimate prize.
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby radon1 » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 19:36:55

americandream wrote:Having said that, war will not occur as the elites recognise that no matter how the power is spread, the preservation of globalising consumerism is the ultimate prize.


+1

Other than that, who is this Mr.Putin that everyone is discussing? It sounds like he is an omnipotent giant, or an omnipotent dwarf, spinning the world aroung his finger. Could only dream that we had one. Everyone is forgetting that he is just an insecure frontman of a motely crew running a poor country.

Forget about Putin, forget about South-Eastern Ukraine, they are already at each others throats right at the Maidan square in Kiev. (If want to check it up can look here http://youtu.be/uKL9KH7pi34).

How long before the goblins in Kiev depart (i.e. flee) for their university jobs in the (guess where), just as the Georgian goblin Saakashvilly did before them.

(EDIT: found original video source on youtube).
Last edited by radon1 on Wed 16 Apr 2014, 19:52:11, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 19:48:51

Related:

"World War 3 Has Already Begun"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZK5gRLJ9h0
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 20:25:20

is-vladimir-putin-another-adolf-hitler/

Notes that Hitler's rise in Germany was a response to the humiliation and loss of German territory under the Versailles Treaty, just as Putin's rise in Russia is a response to the humiliation and loss of territory following the USSR's defeat in the Cold War.

Hitler's moves leading up to the WWII were designed to reverse the Versailles Treaty, just as Putin's moves now are designed to reverse the loss of Russia territory due to their defeat in the Cold War.

Hitler started WWII ca. 30 years after Germany's defeat in WWII.

It is now about 30 years after the collapse of the USSR to end the Cold War.

An interesting comparison.
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby peterjames » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 20:36:58

americandream wrote:Chances of another war for the next 5 decades is remote. Modern day capitlism is a different beast from the of the '30's. Having said that, war will not occur as the elites recognise that no matter how the power is spread, the preservation of globalising consumerism is the ultimate prize.


And yet, many of the great wars have started due to economic malais, exactly what the world is currently going thru.
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Re: Start of World War III?

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 20:38:18

Geneva talks on Ukraine face steep hurdles

Thursday's high-level talks in Geneva on Ukraine come as the country's eastern regions are awash in turmoil and pro-Russian insurgents have seized police stations and government buildings in at least nine cities.

But for all the anxiety about Ukraine's future — bolstered by Vladimir Putin's contention the country is on the verge of civil war — the top diplomats of Ukraine, Russia, the United States and the European Union may find their positions so far apart that no one can find a compromise.

A look at the parties in the talks and their levers of power:

____

RUSSIA

What Russia says it wants: Since the ouster of Ukraine's Russia-friendly President Viktor Yanukovych in February, Moscow has consistently pushed for Ukraine to become a federalized state, in which the country's regions would have more powers outside the central government in Kiev. That could let some Ukraine regions pursue closer trade ties with Russia — or even vote to join Russia.

What it really wants: It deeply wants Ukraine to stay away from NATO membership and to be drawn back into Russia's orbit instead of coming under the sway of the European Union.

What it would settle for: Ukraine not in NATO or the EU and in a trade confederation that Moscow will build, according to Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the Russia In Global Affairs journal. Russia is likely to push hard for these, even at the risk of more sanctions. "If further sanctions are imposed, this is the price Putin will accept and certainly he will not concede," said analyst Masha Lipman of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

___

UNITED STATES

What the U.S. says it wants: The Obama administration wants Russia to drop its claim to have annexed Crimea and drawn down its troops on the strategic peninsula to pre-crisis levels. The White House is also demanding the Kremlin halt provocative actions by pro-Russian militia in eastern Ukraine that the West believes are being funded and coordinated by Moscow.

What it really wants: The U.S. wants the above — but it also wants Russia to stop bullying Ukraine, especially in the energy sector, which it sees as a worrisome precedent for other former Soviet republics such as Georgia, Moldova and the Baltics. Washington also still needs Russian cooperation on thorny diplomatic issues such as Iran.

What it would settle for: The U.S. will not recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea but that's by and large a done deal. The U.S. would settle for the Kremlin to just halt its provocations in eastern and southern Ukraine and end any efforts at destabilizing the country.

____

UKRAINE

What Ukraine says it wants: Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk says for the Geneva talks "there is only one, fundamental directive: Russia must pull out its saboteur groups and denounce terrorists."

What it really wants: Analyst Vadim Karasyov says behind the scenes, Ukraine will be talking about how best to decentralize power so regions don't want to break away and join Russia. "They will be searching for some kind of compromise with Russia because nobody wants to go to war," he said.

What it would settle for: Ukraine wants Russia to stop supporting insurgents in the east. It is also likely to be playing for time, hoping to keep the situation on the ground comparatively calm ahead of the May 25 presidential election. If that vote goes smoothly, Russia will lose its leverage of tarring Ukraine as being led by an illegitimate government.

___

THE EUROPEAN UNION

What the EU says it wants: EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton's spokeswoman says the 28-nation bloc wants direct talks between Russia and Ukraine to calm down the tensions in eastern Ukraine. If that situation deteriorates further, EU leaders have threatened to introduce biting economic sanctions against Russia.

What it really wants: The EU wants pro-Russian groups to stop seizing government facilities in eastern Ukraine. It also wants to lessen Ukraine's economic dependency on Russia, offering a wide-ranging aid package, a free trade agreement and help in reducing the country's reliance on Russian natural gas.

What it would settle for: Tacitly, though not legally, the EU has accepted Ukraine's loss of the Crimean Peninsula to Russia but it won't accept a further partition of the country. It has hinted it could accommodate some of Russia's concerns about the EU-Ukraine free trade agreement if this could smooth Kiev's dealings with Moscow.


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