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TheAntiDoomer wrote:Commodity Shipping Index Posts Biggest Annual Gain on Record

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2009-1 ... ecord.html

Shipping costs rebounded this year, after plunging a record 92 percent last year, as the global economy recovered from its deepest recession since World War II. China, the world’s biggest consumer of iron ore and coal, spent $586 billion to stimulate its economy. The two commodities are the biggest cargoes carried by ships included in the Baltic Dry Index.

“Next year is going to be a better year than a lot of people expect, but a lot depends on Chinese demand continuing,” said Michael Gaylard, strategic director at Freight Investor Services Ltd., a London-based derivatives broker.

after plunging a record 92 percent last year

Rapid global trade recovery continues By Alan Beattie in London, updated: March 1 2010 21:03:

Global trade in goods has continued to bounce back rapidly from its huge fall a year ago, with an authoritative index recording the fastest monthly increase in December in its 19-year history.

Data from the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a Dutch research institute, suggest that little permanent damage has been done to the world trading system by the financial crisis.

The bureau’s widely watched composite index said that the volume of goods trade worldwide rose at 4.8 per cent in December. The less volatile three-monthly measure also rose by a record rate in the fourth quarter of last year, finishing 6 per cent higher than in the third quarter.

Richard Baldwin, professor of international economics at the Graduate Institute in Geneva, said that the rapid recovery suggested that it was largely a fall in demand that had caused trade to contract. [...]

Baltic Dry Index Jumps 36% in Two Weeks as China Lifts Iron Ore
By Alaric Nightingale

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity shipping costs, had its biggest two-week gain in 14 months as Chinese iron ore buying extended a surge in charter rates for vessels that carry the steelmaking raw material.

The gauge jumped 4.2 percent today to 2,756 points, according to the London-based Baltic Exchange. It’s climbed 36 percent in the past two weeks, the largest fortnightly advance since June 2009. Charter rates for iron-ore carrying capesizes had the largest increase today, rising 8.9 percent to $34,913 a day.

Chinese steelmakers “are replenishing the stocks they destocked,” Amrita Sen, an analyst Barclays Capital in London, said by phone today. While inventories of iron ore at Chinese ports stand at a near-record 76.8 million metric tons, mills themselves “destocked massively” during the past several months, she said.

The Baltic Dry Index has now climbed 40 percent in August while capesize charter rates have more than doubled, according to the exchange. The rising demand is enabling owners to overcome the effects of a fleet that’s expanding at about twice the speed of seaborne trade in commodities.

[...]

A 20-mile-long line of commodity carriers off Queensland, suffering its worst floods in a half- century, means less income for owners already reeling from the biggest slump in freight rates in more than two years.

There are 132 vessels floating off the Australian state, which accounts for about 50 percent of the global seaborne supply of coal used in steelmaking, data collected by AISLive and compiled by Bloomberg show. Ships will wait at least 22 days to load, the longest delays since April, according to Truro, England-based Global Ports, which tracks the industry.

While congestion would normally boost freight rates by tying up vessels, mine closures could spur shippers to order carriers to leave and compete for new orders, said Amrita Sen, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London. Should the flooding persist, the Baltic Dry Index of shipping costs may drop as much as 32 percent to 1,000 points in the coming months, she said.
...
Rates for capesizes, the biggest components in the Baltic Dry Index, plunged 36 percent to $12,897 a day last week, the most since October 2008, according to data from the Baltic Exchange. Tariffs fell another 13 percent to $11,266 this week. The bourse in London’s financial district publishes daily assessments for more than 50 maritime routes.

eXpat wrote:Still on its way down, check the links, it looks like is going to 2008 levels
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Outcast_Searcher wrote:If you want to preach doom, root for continued housing and employment and debt issues - there are plenty of real negative economic signals that bear watching.

eXpat wrote:

Outcast_Searcher wrote:If you want to preach doom, root for continued housing and employment and debt issues - there are plenty of real negative economic signals that bear watching.

Is not that a FACT? have a look at the graphs again, and I would hardly call it volatile, it has been pretty consistent last years unlike the stock market for instance, or are you just trolling around?

Baltic Dry Index 187 Away From Triple Digits

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/27/2011 08:23 -0500

The freefall in the BDIY is just ridiculous: following a steep plunge it has now gone in freefall, and is down 3.9% overnight to 1,186. And to all who are claiming that the index is merely indicating a supply glut from the onslaught of new ship arrivals, well the entire orderbook (in progress) has been public and transparent - to claim it is a surprise is about as "naive" as stating that 5 computers and a bunch of NYU kids control the US stock market. As for how much longer it will keep dropping? Well: he post Lehman low was 663. There is still a lot of pain. Especially if one is a non-chartered dry bulk shipper... With leverage.

JohnRM wrote:The BDI didn't nosedive, it just never really recovered to pre-recession levels. We're pretty much right back where we were in 2006. As Officer Barbrady would say; "Move along now. Nothing to see here."

Sichuan province in southwest China has increased the minimum wage sharply to try and attract workers amid a rapidly rising cost of living.

Sichuan raised the minimum monthly wage by 23.4% starting on 1 January, state news agency Xinhua said on Thursday.

That is one of the biggest increases, with most other provinces raising wages in line with government advice of 13%.

Severe labour shortages in Chinese cities have prompted wage rises in many provinces this year and last.

A total of 21 regions across China adjusted their minimum wage standards in the first three quarters of the year, with an average overall increase of 21.7 percent year-on-year, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security revealed Tuesday.

By the end of September, 21 provincial-level regions, including Beijing, Tianjin and Shanxi had adjusted their minimum wages, Yin Chengji, the ministry's spokesperson, told a press conference Tuesday.

According to him, 25 provinces in total have issued guidelines for this year's wage increase, setting the baseline of wage growth to above 14 percent year-on-year.