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Last_Laff wrote:At 48 billion, how long does it take to consume?

I only have basic idea of consumption but bad at math. However, with your reply, it be helpful for my clarity.

For example, 82 million bbl/yr seem to be plenty left for 48 billion if you add up the yearly rate. does that put off as a slow decline while prices moderates?

I can think outside of the box, but this question comes to mind that there might be some differences somewhere between how much left (half left the harder to extract, I got that....) and yearly consumption and what not.

Just a question.

PIW said the official public Kuwaiti figures do not distinguish between proven, probable and possible reserves.

But it said the data it had seen show that of the current remaining 48 billion barrels of proven and non-proven reserves, only about 24 billion barrels are so far fully proven -- 15 billion in its biggest oilfield Burgan.

Kuwait has been adding up to 500 million barrels a year at Burgan which means the remaining non-proven reserves of some 5.3 billion barrels will likely be upgraded to proven, according to PIW.

Oil Minister Sheikh Ali al-Jarrah al-Sabah confirmed on Saturday that Kuwait's proven oil reserves are 48 billion barrels -- a figure conflicting with the previous official estimates of nearly 100 billion barrels.

In an interview with a Kuwaiti newspaper, Sheikh Ali Al-Jarrah said unproved oil reserves in the country may reach 150 billion barrels.

Last_Laff wrote:At 48 billion, how long does it take to consume?

I only have basic idea of consumption but bad at math. However, with your reply, it be helpful for my clarity.

For example, 82 million bbl/yr seem to be plenty left for 48 billion if you add up the yearly rate. does that put off as a slow decline while prices moderates?

I can think outside of the box, but this question comes to mind that there might be some differences somewhere between how much left (half left the harder to extract, I got that....) and yearly consumption and what not.

Just a question.

Last_Laff wrote:At 48 billion, how long does it take to consume?

I can think outside of the box, but this question comes to mind that there might be some differences somewhere between how much left (half left the harder to extract, I got that....) and yearly consumption and what not.

Just a question.

From what I can tell I don't think he is changing his story at all. The 100 billion number probably refers to 3P reserves, the new 150 to 3P plus yet to find. What PIW was talking about was not just proven reserves but proven plus unproven. So the Kuwait official is still saying reserves are much higher than PIW claims from their leaked information.

Tanada wrote:
If they produce 2.5 Mbbl/d until it is gone that would be 52 years, then zero.

Kuwait could reach 4m bpd capacity by 2012
Kuwait could boost its oil capacity to 4 million barrels per day eight years earlier than planned after recently announced finds, Kuwait's oil minister said on Tuesday.

"We could," said Sheikh Ali al-Jarrah al-Sabah, when asked about a Kuwaiti newspaper report last weekend that said capacity could reach 4 million bpd by 2012 instead of the previous target of 2020.

Opec member Kuwait's existing capacity is around 2.8 million bpd.

Last month, Kuwait made an oil and gas find in the al-Dhabi region in the north of the country. Sheikh Ali described the find as important but has yet to give details on its size.

A plan to boost output from four other northern fields would also figure in Gulf Arab state's plans to accelerate capacity addition, Sheikh Ali said on the sidelines of an energy event in Cairo.

The plan, known as Project Kuwait, has faced opposition from some parliamentarians who saw no need to boost output as state coffers were already bulging with record oil revenues.

Sheikh Ali has asked investment banks Morgan Stanley and Lazard to review Project Kuwait, with a view to submitting a revised plan to parliament later this year.

Other Opec members, uncertain about how environmental regulations and alternative fuels will hit demand, have grown more cautious about capacity increases. They are reluctant to spend billions of dollars on new projects only for them to lie idle.

Kuwait produced around 2.4 million bpd in April, according to a Reuters survey. The country sits on about 10 percent of global oil reserves. -Reuters

And, yes. I know what it means. I bothered to check out the difference between the "3 Ps" a long time ago. It's a way of saying "we really don't know shit."

rockdoc123 wrote:

And, yes. I know what it means. I bothered to check out the difference between the "3 Ps" a long time ago. It's a way of saying "we really don't know shit."

Obviously you don't know what it means. For older fields (which we are mainly talking about in Kuwait) proven reserves would be those that are currently producing (proven producing) and those which have been proven capable of producing and are tied in. Probable reserves in the case of older fields are often conventional zones which are known to be oil bearing but have not been produced. For example certain zones may not have been perforated to flow previously due to higher gas content, differing permeabilities etc. In the case of Possible reserves for these older fields or contingent reserves as some such as WoodMac refer to the oil is known to be present but there needs to be either considerable expenditure which at current price level may not be economic or their needs to be improvement in technology. As an example we could look at Shaybah in Saudi Arabia. It is a challenging reservoir due to varying reservoir quality and the propensity for gas coning. Ten years ago the recovery factor was likely in the 25% range whereas recent estimates from Aramco suggest about 55% recovery factor. So ten years ago more than half of what is ultimate recoverable oil was in the possible category.

KUWAIT: More than half of Kuwait's oil reserves will not be produced through cheap traditional methods, Deputy Director General of the Kuwait Institution for Scientific Research (KISR) Dr. Nader Al-Awadhi said yesterday. Kuwait's oil reserves are estimated at about 95 billion barrels, among the biggest worldwide. Most production, if not all, is being produced through traditional methods, Al-Awadhi told a KISR workshop on "Managing Carbon Dioxide for Improving Oil Production" that started yesterday.

He expected that the traditional methods would produce 45 billion barrels, but could not be used for the rest (i.e. 50 billion barrels). Thus, emerges the necessity of developing new feasible environment-friendly methods for producing heavy oils, he said adding that oil production operations over the past years had focused on light oil.

"With the rising rates of consumption, light crude oils are being used up at higher rates", Al-Awadhi said noting that the heavy oil reserves worldwide are six times light oils.

What you're basically saying is that they've peaked, all the cheap 'n' easy oil is gone and what's left is harder and more expensive to get. Reserves don't mean a thing, it's production that matters, right?

The move stunned Gulf currency markets and volumes dried up. The impact would be clearer on Monday when international markets open, said Steve Brice, chief middle east economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Dubai.

Denny wrote:And, we all thought Kuwait was a friend!