theluckycountry wrote:You always want to go back in time don't you kub, back to the glory days. Back to old data.
What are you talking about? That data was literally released yesterday. It is the most up to date data available and includes the full 2023 sales figures. You know, 2023, which just ended less than 2 weeks ago? I included the date of the article because I knew you would say something like that. Try again.
theluckycountry wrote:Well we explained last years increases earlier, don't you remember? Sales increased but the rate of sales increase fell, all year. And why did sales increase? Because people always pour into a market at the bubble tops and the huge discounts EV makers were giving, up to 30%, spurred this on. Didn't you learn anything from the dotcom crash, the housing bust, the Great recession?
So if sales go down, it is proof they peaked. If sales go up, it is proof it is a peak as well, because you KNOW it is going down afterwards. Seriously?
theluckycountry wrote:Look, you're little people kub, your the victim of a concerted marketing campaign that these days even incorporates science articles.
Incorrect. I am not citing marketing data. I am citing 3rd party sales figures. Try again.
theluckycountry wrote:You cling to this marketing as proof, but what proof is the CEO of Hertz using kub? He knows the score, he has all the engineers and actuaries feeding him data and he's acted on the information by ditching the EV fleet. Why didn't you comment on that?
Oh you want to talk about Hertz? Ok let's do that. Did you even read the reason Hertz sold? Because sharp EV price falls hurt the resale value of previously sold EVs. That's good news for buyers, bad news for sellers. You would think after all the crying you did about EVs being so expensive you would be celebrating steep falls in price. But since it is you we are talking about, even good news for EVs is bad news.
Jan. 11, 2024 - The rental car company Hertz will be selling about one-third of the electric vehicles in its fleet after they lost value more quickly than expected. The company’s decision to sell 20,000 vehicles, which Mr. Scherr blamed partly on “unprecedented” price cuts by Tesla that undercut the cars’ resale value.
Mr. Scherr implicitly put much of the blame on Tesla, which makes about half of all electric vehicles sold in the United States, for the rental car company’s decision to sell its electric vehicles. Tesla vehicles, which make up the largest share of Hertz’s electric fleet, plunged in value after the carmaker, which Elon Musk runs, cut prices last year by about 30 percent. When the price of new vehicles is drastically lowered, it drives down the value of used cars because buyers can get the newer versions for less.
As a result, Hertz was forced to write down the value of its electric cars more quickly than it had expected, which weighed on profit. Rental companies like Hertz estimate how much their cars will be worth when they eventually sell them, and that estimated decline in value is calculated as a cost. If the decline is more than expected, profit falls.
Hertz Will Shrink Electric Fleet After Being Burned by Tesla’s Price Cutstheluckycountry wrote:The worlds smartest people don't agree with you, neither do the 99% of American car owners who have thumbed their noses at EV's
You wouldn't know because all you have done is attack strawmen and post BS. And as for the 99% figure, I've explained fleet turnover rates to you before but you consistently ignored it.
theluckycountry wrote:Here, a cornucopian link for you to take the sting out of reality.
You don't have a leg to stand on when talking about reality. You have consistently posted BS that has no basis in reality.
theluckycountry wrote:US Electric Vehicle Sales Growth Slowed in Latest Quarter
Indeed, growth is slowing. But it is still growing. Meanwhile ICE sales peaked years ago.
theluckycountry wrote:EV's are only 1% of US cars on the road, pretty lame when you think about it, but now growth in sales is collapsing I can't see it making even 2%.
Once again, fleet turnover takes a long time, especially when only a fraction of new sales are EVs. That is why you should be looking at sales to see what people who are actually buying a car are doing. And EVs are much higher than 1% of sales.
Sales of EVs are growing. However, as a recent New York Times article points out, it could take years, if not decades, before electrification leads to substantial reductions in emissions.
The problem, ironically, is that automotive technology has become so good. As every long-time auto owner knows, gas-powered cars and trucks have become quite reliable, and this means that fleet turnover is slow. According to economic forecasting firm IHS Markit, the average light-duty vehicle operating in the US today is 12 years old, up from an average age of 9.6 years in 2002. “Engineering quality has gotten significantly better over time, in part because of competition from foreign automakers like Toyota.” Americans buy around 17 million gas-burners every year, and each of those cars and light trucks may be plying US roads for as long as 20 years, after which it’s likely to be shipped off for a second (and dirtier) life in a developing country.
According to IHS Markit’s projections, if EV sales ramp up to 60 percent over the next 30 years, only about 40 percent of cars on the road will be electric in 2050. “There’s an enormous amount of inertia in the system to overcome,” said Abdullah Alarfaj, a graduate student at Carnegie Mellon University who led a recent study that explored ways to speed up the rate of turnover.
Slow fleet turnover means ICE vehicles could be on the roads for decadestheluckycountry wrote:So much for the Great Transition.
The smart people who's actual job it is to track and know this stuff disagree with you:
Electrification shift looks unstoppable despite near-term uncertainty in Europe & US
The past few years have seen many OEMs reaffirming electrification ambitions for the coming five to 15 years. More recently the narrative has shifted, with some automakers highlighting the twin challenges of the electrification transition—scaling output of sellable BEVs and finding willing customers to buy them.
Reports of the demise of electric vehicles have been greatly exaggerated, and S&P Global Mobility projects global sales for battery electric passenger vehicles to be on track to post 13.3 million units for 2024 – accounting for an estimated 16.2% of global passenger vehicle sales. For reference, 2023 posted an estimated 9.6 million BEVs, for 12% market share.
S&P Global Mobility forecasts 88.3M auto sales in 2024