SevenTen wrote:Really? So far in the distant future? That would be pretty simple to prove, so how about trotting out:
* current usage of uranium
* current supply and reserves
* an adequate growth rate, realizing all the slack that needs to picked up from the peaking of oil, the peaking of natural gas in a few years, and the peaking of coal somewhere in the next 20 years
Then calculate the doubling time using the growth rate above (the REAL way, not using the rule of 72). Then bring the results here and we'll have a look-see about it peaking so far in the distant future that only the immortals will see it.
And please source your data.
Current usage is laid out about two dozen times in this thread, as are the disputes over supplies and reserves. If you are too lazy to read through this whole thread then look them up on the internet.
As for taking up all the slack from Petroleum, Natural gas and Coal, wherever did you get the idea that it is my job to justify such arbitrary conditions for your amusement? Of course we should ignore the fact that electrified railroads and nuclear powered freighters coupled with nuclear powered electricity production pretty much wipes out the shipping of goods via fossil fuels. For human transport, why should having a few Billion private cars even be a goal? If you do want a few Billion private cars then you will have to go electric for those as well, which would be expensive but not impossible.
I choose not to play your game of 'adequate growth rate' in my opinion growth for the sake of growth is not a goal, it is a sign of cancer.
Fission won't give you Utopia any more than any system will, what it will do is provide energy for vital transport, electricity for residential, commercial and industrial use, and workarounds for the decline of fossil fuels without screwing up the environment beyond all recognition or increasing the chances of flipping the climactic tipping point and returning us to the hothouse end of the climate cycle where subtropical trees lived in northern Canada.
Up until the last 100 years the average human being was born and died within 20 miles of the same spot, the insane desire to travle everywhere you can is a fossil fueled aberation, not a normal way of life.