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By 2070, the passenger road market could be oil-free

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By 2070, the passenger road market could be oil-free

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 14 Oct 2013, 17:42:51

Shell: "By 2070, the passenger road market could be nearly oil-free" [VIDEO]


According to the 2013 Shell Lens Scenarios, which tries to predict what the world’s energy dependence could look like in 2100, by 2070 we could be living oil free.

There are lots of factors that went into this prediction, such as increased urbanization, more efficient urban planning, and regulations on CO2 emissions. But the people at Shell believed these factors were so powerful that it made the following claim: the rise in the use of electricity and hydrogen as transportation fuels will result in oil having a meagre 22% of the global transportation market by 2060. It further claims:

By 2070, the passenger road market could be nearly oil-free
Shell lumps electric and hydrogen into the same group, which they project will have a 60% market share by 2060. Shell has a vested interest in pushing the hydrogen barrow as they and Total are currently the only two major oil companies that have stated they are actively developing hydrogen based fueling technology for vehicles.

The rest of the oil industry does not seem to share Shell's opinion. BP predicted in Feb 2012 that electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, will make up only 4 percent of the global fleet by 2030 while Exxon said electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and vehicles that run on natural gas would make up only 5 percent of the fleet by 2040.

Let's hope big oil are only trying to fool themselves with these predictions, because if market trends in the third largest oil exporting nation in the world, Norway, where fully-fledged electric cars have already captured a combined market share of 9.1 per cent, is an accurate leading indicator, even Shell's time scale might be conservative.


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Re: By 2070, the passenger road market could be oil-free

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 14 Oct 2013, 18:39:07

Hydrogen fuel-cell technology IS mature. But the storage of hydrogen fuel either involves a cryogenic liquid or a pressurized tank in most designs, which is immature in the extreme.

Cryogenic liquid hydrogen takes an extra 22% energy input for liquefaction of the gas. Even so, a quantity of liquid hydrogen only has about the energy content of gasoline that fits in 1/4 the volume - and that's without considering the volume of insulation needed to avoid boil-off.

Compressed hydrogen involves an extra 2.1% to run the compressor, but has a very low energy density for the volume of space consumed except with exotic composite material tank designs.

Storage in metallic hydride powders is promising but releasing such hydrogen requires heating it to a dangerously high temperature.

We do have electronics that can manage fuel cells, we don't have viable hydrogen fuel storage or distribution infrastructure.
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Re: By 2070, the passenger road market could be oil-free

Unread postby Beery1 » Mon 14 Oct 2013, 19:36:31

Oh thank God! We're fricken saved!

Fantasy future technology is so awesome. It brought us the ray gun in the 1950s and a flying car in every garage in the 1970s. Now we just have to trust in Big Oil and a bright oil-free future awaits. Oh joy! I'll use my sub-space phone to call my brother who's living on the Venus colony - he'll be ecstatic.
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Re: By 2070, the passenger road market could be oil-free

Unread postby vision-master » Wed 16 Oct 2013, 18:19:43

Shell lumps electric and hydrogen into the same group, which they project will have a 60% market share by 2060.


Fossil fuels heat boiler water into high pressure steam - spins turbine to produce electricity to produce hydrogen. :)
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Re: By 2070, the passenger road market could be oil-free

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 17 Oct 2013, 04:58:27

Related:

"It Will Take 131 Years To Replace Oil, And We've Only Got 10"

http://www.businessinsider.com/131-year ... il-2010-11
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Re: By 2070, the passenger road market could be oil-free

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 17 Oct 2013, 13:30:14

The history of the so-called "Zero Emission Vehicle" in California is instructive.

Firstly, Thomas A. Edison was an early proponent of electric vehicles over petroleum fuels. He spent 10 fruitless years in search of a battery that would be competitive with gasoline. He failed, even in a era where the average car weighed 500lbs. Edison's design for vibration-resistant flooded lead-acid batteries would persist for a century as starter batteries for gasoline and diesel vehicles.

Secondly, California set an agressive ZEV goal in 1990, which was 2 percent of vehicle sales by 1998, 5 percent by 2001, and 10 percent by 2003. Although the ZEV goal does not mandate electric vehicles, those are the only types of ZEVs that have made it into production status.

California enacted 22 incentives of various types to increase market penetration of ZEVs - and failed to do so. There were a couple of years where if you purchased a small electric vehicle like a golf cart, then applied for both California state and Federal ZEV rebates, the vehicle was free. FREE simply was not enough incentive to get people to abandon gasoline and diesel vehicles.

The ZEV goals were rolled back, EVs in California in 2013 are slightly more numerous than the USA as a whole, where a bit less than one vehicle in 200 is electric powered, after 20+ years of incentives.

More Details: http://www.american.com/archive/2012/august/subsidy-powered-vehicles
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Re: By 2070, the passenger road market could be oil-free

Unread postby JV153 » Wed 27 Nov 2013, 12:15:16

Problem with mass production and attractiveness of plug-in fully electrically powered EV's is still price, large volumes and the range. A battery energy storage density of 250 Wh/kg is about the best that's around now. There's no theoretical reason much higher energy storage densities couldn't be achieved.

The other barrier to mass production of electric motors for cars is the large amount of copper or aluminum winding (or cast copper rotors) needed - copper and aluminum production isn't that high and a lot of it is used in wiring, plumbing, fixtures, radiators and electric motors (copper) - and aluminum is used in power lines and wiring, siding, girder trusses, airplane fuselages, wind turbines, drinking cans, saucepans, skylights, gutters, window and door frames, etc.

Seems to be a major barrier here to EV production is copper and aluminum
availability once price and range difficulties are overcome.
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Re: By 2070, the passenger road market could be oil-free

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Wed 27 Nov 2013, 12:45:29

I think that by 2070 the Mennonites won't be the only people driving around in horse drawn buggies!
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Re: By 2070, the passenger road market could be oil-free

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 29 Nov 2013, 08:11:13

yellowcanoe wrote:I think that by 2070 the Mennonites won't be the only people driving around in horse drawn buggies!


You beat me too it! I was going to say, yes the roads will be oil free because everyone will be on foot or using the oxen and the old grey mare to move the cart along.
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Re: By 2070, the passenger road market could be oil-free

Unread postby Pops » Fri 29 Nov 2013, 11:25:04

Who was this written for?
Hydrogen and electricity don't just show up, they are carriers of energy produced from some other primary resource, mainly fossils.
Reads like more PR,
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Re: By 2070, the passenger road market could be oil-free

Unread postby John_A » Fri 29 Nov 2013, 11:38:27

ralfy wrote:Related:

"It Will Take 131 Years To Replace Oil, And We've Only Got 10"

http://www.businessinsider.com/131-year ... il-2010-11


The blog this article is based on is only allowed to be seen by folks so privileged by the blog owner.

I wonder what details they are hiding that they can't show everyone? Or perhaps this is just something from the usual suspects?
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