Renewable energy is nearly 10% world wide, and 70% plus in some countries. Can the market solve the problem? Probably not. It doesn’t consider limitations in resources (just substitution), it’s short term and doesn’t internalise certain costs. Whatever happens it's got be a combination of Government interference (not very popular anywhere, but especially the US) and market developments.
There are also unknown elements caused by public opinion. 70% of UK wind farms have been rejected, because of NIMBYs. The public fear of Nuclear power – could chernobyl become one of the most significant events in mankind’s history?
Here's a European perspective, the nearest thing I’ve seen to a plan B on line, it makes a lot of assumptions though.
# General assumptions
* the population of EU 15 will grow from 140 million in 1998 to 164 million people in 2050
* by 2050 the standard of living in EU 15 will all be at the current Northern Europe level industrial, commercial and living areas will be developed to minimise transportation demand
* 10% of all land area will be set aside for nature preservation
* consumption patterns will change to reduce meat imports and to allow for food production with only 20% of the present input of fertilisers
# Assumptions concerning energy demand
* material use by industry will be reduced by a factor of 4 thanks to careful product design.
* recycling rates will be doubled. energy consumption in industry will be reduced accordingly.
* floor space will increase to 42 m2 per capita household size will decrease to 2.24 persons per household.
* heating demand for buildings in Northern and Central Europe will be reduced from 150 kWh/m2*a to 30-40 kWh/m2*a.
* energy efficiency of household appliances will be increased by 60-85% .
* the tertiary (service) sector will grow by 50% by 2050.
* the transport of goods will decrease by 60% since industry will be using less materials. short and medium distance flights will be abandoned in favour of rail transport.
* 50% of all journeys will be by public transport. people will travel shorter distances due to changed spatial patterns.
* passenger cars will use only two litres of fuel per 100km and trucks will use only 2/3 of their present diesel consumption.
* the overall energy demand per capita will be reduced from 4500 W/cap in 1990 to 1700 W/cap in 2050.
# Assumptions concerning energy supply
* the renewable energy sources considered in the scenario were biomass, solar radiation, wind energy, and hydropower. The share of each was based on expert judgement.
* 500 W/cap will be produced by biomass.
* PV modules will be installed on 30% of the suitable roof area supplying 150 W/cap.
* solar thermal collectors will be installed on 50% of the suitable roof area supplying 330 W/cap.
* wind energy will contribute 50 W/cap from on-shore and 160 W/cap from off-shore installations.
* solar power plants will contribute 180 W/cap. no large hydropower plants will be added.
* the use of small hydropower sites will be increased from 20-25% today to 90% in 2050 with a total contribution of hydropower of 140 W/cap.
* heat pumps will utilise environmental heat to supply 90 W/cap.
* no more than 80W/head, 5% of the total energy demand, will be supplied by fossil fuels
* no energy will be imported by the EU15
http://www.feasta.org/documents/wells/c ... meyer.html