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Interesting.

There have been other posts claiming a high wind turbine blade failure rate or short life span. I could not find documentation to back that up. Si I would appreciate some reading material on that topic.

The UK and Germany have been letting big off shore wind contracts in the past few years. Negative bidding wars make the cost SEEM quite reasonable, but I don’t know how they are actually doing, I think still in build phase.

Anyway, some links would he good. Though I admit that 1,000 pager was a bit over my concentration level. The summary was good.

Mustard wrote:So in conclusion, renewables are probably going to go into decommissioning next year. From there growth will stagnate and eventually go negative. Renewables were struggling before Obama, the ARRA gave them 3-7 years of bubble, now they are a declining industry heading into a wall of depreciation.

Thanks for this. I'd also read further if you have links.

I hate to be the one to say it but the solution to shortage is substitution. This story talks a little about that.

Mustard wrote:Just from basic physical equations the turbine is going to be totally destroyed after six months.

Yeah, like 6 posts and you just had to go and PROVE it didn't you?

Mustard wrote:Just from basic physical equations the turbine is going to be totally destroyed after six months.

And yet thousands and thousands of wind turbines are still in service all over the world even though they are much older then six months.



Will marvels never cease!

Cheers!

I don't get what heating water has to do with anything? Most cement is milled dry. Or is there more than the normal amount here that I don't understand?

This paper says energy payback is about a year even with global shipping and normal - not optimized- energy costs:

Life cycle assessment methodology was used to perform a quantitative analysis and rating of the construction and operation of a wind energy plant through the case study of the Glacier Hills Wind Park.
The energy payback ratio (25.5), energy payback time (12.2 months),
...

Analysis of the result also shows that up to 22 % of the energy consumed and CO2(eq) produced during the life cycle transportation stage is due to the overseas shipping of major wind turbine components to the United States, either for direct installation at site or to domestic manufacturing plants.
...
In the material production category, the consider-able emissions from the production of the large volume of Portland cement used in the concrete foundation may be significantly reduced by replacing a portion of Portland cement with cementitious fly ash
...
Furthermore it was observed that after the material production and manufacturing category, the earthwork and construction category accounted for the highest GHG emissions in the project. These values are heavily influenced by fuel combustion during mechanical crushing and transportation of haul road and crane pad base layer material.

It's a sad reality that all these renewables are turning out to be re-buildables, rebuilt with oil and coal. The 1000 tons of concrete and untold steel in the wind tower foundation is a classic example of this. Cement clinker, the active ingredient in cement, is hugely energy intensive to make.


https://marketrealist.com/2014/08/must- ... ts-cement/

Power and fuel

The cement industry relies on power. Power and fuel costs account for ~30% of the price of cement when it’s sold. As a result, power and fuel have a major impact on the company’s operating expenditure. Coal is used to fire the kiln. Different varieties of fuel—diesel, coal, pet coke, and lignite—are used to grind the clinker in the kiln. Cement plants require different amounts of power based on the heat treatment process that’s being used. Energy consumption hovers around 60–70 kilowatt hours (or kWh) of power per pound of clinker produced.

We are talking temperatures above 1,300° C. Try doing that with solar reflectors.

here is a more comprehensive chemistry based article https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/en ... nt-clinker

Stay tuned, it will catch up eventually.

Mustard wrote:Gas engines are efficient because the gas is under pressure and approximates a solid.

Gas engines efficiently convert fossil fuels into CO2 and release it into the atmosphere. But we can't continue to do that because CO2 and other greenhouse gases cause global warming.

Mustard wrote: Wind turbines are just open air.

Wind turbines extract energy from the wind (what you call "open air.") And they don't release any CO2 in the generation of electricity.

Mustard wrote: All types of electrical utilities are a scam.

Thats a bit harsh.

In reality electrical utilities are successfully providing power to billions of people all around the globe.

Mustard wrote:Wind just can't work

Thats a bit harsh.

In reality wind farms are providing electricity to electrical utilities who are successfully providing power to billions of people all around the globe.

Mustard wrote:A nuclear plant just absorbs it's own heat.

Thats a bit harsh.

In reality nuclear plants are providing electricity to electrical utilities who are successfully providing power to billions of people all around the globe. Nuclear has many problems, but hopefully the next generation of nuclear plants will be better designed and cheaper and more efficient.

Mustard wrote:All real electricity comes from gasoline generators at oil fields that make LNG, or the manual labor that extracts coal.

Thats just absurd.

The electricity that comes from wind farms or nuclear plants or solar cells or hydro plants is just as "real" as the electricity that comes from oil or coal.

And we can't continue to burn oil and natural gas because that releases CO2 and CH4 and other greenhouse gases that cause global warming.


We have to decarbonize the economy and end all greenhouse emissions from power plants. That means shutting down all remaining oil and coal-fired power plants

Cheers!

Pops wrote:

Mustard wrote:So in conclusion, renewables are probably going to go into decommissioning next year. From there growth will stagnate and eventually go negative. Renewables were struggling before Obama, the ARRA gave them 3-7 years of bubble, now they are a declining industry heading into a wall of depreciation.

Thanks for this. I'd also read further if you have links.

I hate to be the one to say it but the solution to shortage is substitution. This story talks a little about that.

Yes, unless all effective substitutes available at a reasonable price are used up, there is no crisis and the idea that renewables can't grow is just wrong.

How many decades have folks been cherry picking doom because they always assume (or imply) that some form of substitution, including doing things differently can't or won't happen?

Mustard wrote:Let's do a little extrapolation of German wind decommissioning.

Source? Assumptions? So you're going to just ignore everything in the article Pops posted and claim the fact that if something doesn't last forever it implies doom?

Mustard wrote:Let's do a little extrapolation of German wind decommissioning.

You mean, idiot Mustang/Short extrapolation? Looks to be some phoney baloney graph, which identifies one of the few users who specializes in such things.

Mustard wrote:

AdamB wrote: Looks to be some phoney baloney graph, which identifies one of the few users who specializes in such things.

It is a fake graph...

Yes. I already said that. It is what you specialize in. Duh. Don't you have a bridge crossing an ocean in Arizona to sell shares in or something?

Mustard wrote:Get dennis here, tell him Texas wolfcamp crashed.

Sorry, I'm not a message boy for trolls. Well...not incompetent ones anyway...

Mustard wrote:Dumping some analyses.

Phoney baloney graphs do not analysis make. And this thread isn't about trolls making graphs of data they don't understand. There is some stupid thread elsewhere you infested for that.

Mustard wrote:Still learning the 3rd rule of reservoir dynamics.

Well then learn faster, and quite trolling like a moron.

Newfie wrote:Interesting.

There have been other posts claiming a high wind turbine blade failure rate or short life span. I could not find documentation to back that up. Si I would appreciate some reading material on that topic.

Long winded but not 1000 pages. No mention of blade failures, unless that is incorporated under the "Structure" category?

Failure rate and downtime survey of wind turbines located in Spain

https://ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley ... rpg2.12019

excerpt from near the end,
"The electric system is the biggest contributor to both failure rates and downtime, with a notably large share (40.08% and 43.11%, respectively). Of this assembly, the highest sub-category is other electric, which includes alarms such as synchronization faults, pre-load fault, instantaneous line tripping, melted fused, high temperature, fan fault, group does not disconnect, ground emergencies, input power fault or other tripping. "