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AirAsia Flight QZ8501

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AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 28 Dec 2014, 09:42:56

Missing airliner flying from Indonesia to Malaysia, dropped off radar half way with no warning. More at link.
Flight QZ8501 lost contact with air traffic control at around 06:20 local time (23:20 GMT) over the Java Sea.

The plane, an Airbus A320-200, disappeared midway into the flight of more than two hours from the city of Surabaya. No distress call was made.

Bad weather was reported in the area, and an air search operation has now been suspended for the night.

Planes from Indonesia and Singapore had been scouring an area of sea between Kalimantan (Borneo) and Java. Some boats are reported to be continuing to search as night falls.

No wreckage has been found, an Indonesian official told the BBC.

The flight left the Indonesian city of Surabaya in eastern Java at 05:20 local time (22:20 GMT) and was due to arrive in Singapore at 08:30 (00:30 GMT).

The missing jet had requested a "deviation" from the flight path due to storm clouds, AirAsia said.

Indonesia's transport ministry said the pilot had asked permission to climb to 38,000 ft (11,000m) to avoid thick cloud.

AirAsia, a budget airline which owns 49% of AirAsia Indonesia, is based in Malaysia and has never lost a plane.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30614627
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Re: AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 28 Dec 2014, 11:28:24

This report includes a map of the flight plan showing where the plane vanished.

At Juanda international airport, dozens of friends and relatives of those on board, many in tears, could be seen holding on to each other for support and speaking down mobile phones as they followed the search and rescue operation launched by the Indonesian government.

A friend of a missing passenger, who did not give his name, said he was hoping for a miracle and that all on board would be saved. He said he had been scheduled to fly on the AirAsia plane but had cancelled two weeks ago. “I hope for a miracle and may God save all of them,” he said. “I should have gone with them but I cancelled it two weeks ago becuase I had something else to do. I have two friends and they went with five family members.”


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/d ... sing-plane
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Re: AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby Paulo1 » Sun 28 Dec 2014, 11:48:25

Probably weather related compounded by cascading circumstances, and in hindsight poor decision making by flight crew. These factors are the cause of 99%+ of aircraft accidents. Occasionally, there are extreme mechanical failures but do not usually rear themselves in a total disappearance. Mechanicals usually ignite the above circumstances.

I wouldn't jump to a Malaysian rogue pilot scenario just yet, despite Indonesia being a Muslim country. There are scads of Muslim pilots who prefer to get home to family and delay that trip to Paradise just like the rest of humanity.

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Re: AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 28 Dec 2014, 12:00:45

Paulo1 wrote:Probably weather related compounded by cascading circumstances, and in hindsight poor decision making by flight crew. These factors are the cause of 99%+ of aircraft accidents. Occasionally, there are extreme mechanical failures but do not usually rear themselves in a total disappearance. Mechanicals usually ignite the above circumstances.

I wouldn't jump to a Malaysian rogue pilot scenario just yet, despite Indonesia being a Muslim country. There are scads of Muslim pilots who prefer to get home to family and delay that trip to Paradise just like the rest of humanity.

regards


Indeed, jumping to conclusions never helps and as far as suicide pilots go we still do not know anything about what caused the March disappearance. Wreckage was never found, nor were the black(orange) box flight recorders. For all anyone can prove the plane slipped into an alternate reality and landed just fine.
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Re: AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby dorlomin » Sun 28 Dec 2014, 12:17:53

Paulo1 wrote:Probably weather related compounded by cascading circumstances, and in hindsight poor decision making by flight crew. These factors are the cause of 99%+ of aircraft accidents.

Source please.

Edited to add: and we are talking about a commercial passenger carrying flight, so lets not go into stats with every other Cessna bushpilot.
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Re: AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 28 Dec 2014, 15:26:08

pstarr wrote:Still waiting for terrorism. Six? Any theories?


Six what? You talking to me?

Something is odd, it's the 3rd malaysia-related plane crash / disappearance this year. Very strange.
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Re: AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby Paulo1 » Sun 28 Dec 2014, 15:54:22

Dorlomin,

Look up your own stats. I have been in the 'business' for almost 40 years and am well aware of most accident causes.
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Re: AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby Poordogabone » Sun 28 Dec 2014, 16:44:01

A radar screenshot leaked from AirNav Indonesia shows the aircraft had turned left off the airway and was climbing through FL363, the speed over ground had decayed from 470 knots at FL320 to 353 knots however.

From The Aviation Herald
http://avherald.com/h?article=47f6abc7&opt=0

Ground speed was 353 knots at FL363 (36300 FT).
This means approx. air speed of 190 kts, that is much too slow for comfort at this high altitude. If airspeed degraded even more you have the possibility of a stall. I can't help but think of AF447.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447
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Re: AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 28 Dec 2014, 17:41:10

pstarr wrote:So weigh in already? Is it the North Koreans, Russians, the Axis of Evil?


I think this is the first time I've ever been *asked* for my opinion. 8O You've got me so shocked, I'm speechless for once.

Hm...

There's not enough information. Probability wise, it's just very odd though not impossible -- 3 malasian planes going down in one year, all three very weird circumstances.

To begin to figure this out, you'd just need a lot more information. You'd want to take a look at these malaysian airlines for starters. Is passenger traffic way up in recent years, have they grown a lot, how are their safety standards and pilot training.

We saw a lot of weird things with that last flight that got lost in the Indian Ocean.

I don't know enough to say. It's one of several things going on:

1) these malaysian airlines are really crappy and you'd best not fly on them

2) a malaysian nexus on all three planes lost suggests maybe terrorism

3) it was weather related combined with pilot and crappy airline error. Statistical fluke having 3 malaysian airliners down in a year, unlikely yet not impossible. Yet -- what if this wreckage is never found either, how weird is that? Very strange. Personally, I don't have enough information to have a hunch on it.

It's almost like a bermuda triangle thing going on, at this point, except for the one that got shot down over darn Ukraine.
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Re: AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby dorlomin » Sun 28 Dec 2014, 19:42:13

Paulo1 wrote:Dorlomin,

Look up your own stats. I have been in the 'business' for almost 40 years and...
So thats confirming no data to back up your assertion then. :) Thanks.
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Re: AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby GregT » Sun 28 Dec 2014, 22:10:54

"So thats confirming no data to back up your assertion then. :) Thanks."

As a pilot myself, I was also taught that the cause of over 90% of ALL aviation accidents were from what is categorized as "Pilot Error".

According to the NTSB it is closer to 80%.

From airline safety.net:

THE HUMAN ELEMENT: That by which we have physical or mental control to recognize, change, prevent, or mitigate a situation. Approximately 80 percent of all air crashes fall into this category. While the previous definition called it "pilot error," the term has been changed to "human error" to more realistically reflect that anybody who acts in a support capacity of a flight may contribute to the error chain. Not just the pilot. Of the previously cited 80 percent, the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) further breaks down human errors into the following categories:

NTSB HUMAN ERROR CHART

Unprofessional Attitudes 47%
Visual Perception Misjudgment 19%
Pilot Technique 21%
Inflight Judgment or Decision 5%
Improper Operation of Equip. 6%
Unknown Causes 4%

http://airlinesafety.com/editorials/Hum ... rorism.htm
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Re: AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby dorlomin » Sun 28 Dec 2014, 22:37:19


You link shows a fall in the human element over time, does not distinguish the much higher training of commercial jet pilots from bush pilots and is 15 years out of date.

Edited: Having to do other peoples leg work but still.
http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm
This site gives a figure of about 57%. Far far from 99% and who knows the value of it?
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Re: AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 28 Dec 2014, 22:43:33

It's pretty weird that this time it is apparent more or less exactly where this flight must have come down but there is nothing yet found. All day yesterday, half way through day 2 with no debris sighted is pretty odd. The area is remote only in terms of surface transport, even then it is a day sail from Singapore. Hundreds of aircraft a day fly through the area.
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Re: AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 31 Dec 2014, 03:09:43



Well..

I think they're onto something, there. In that foxnews interview the guy is saying they're using too much autopilot in asia and that foreign pilots are required to hit autopilot right when the wheels are up and keep autopilot on until wheels are down. Whereas American pilots do more flying.

He's saying there's all kinds of problems, like one Asian copilot was too afraid to ask the pilot if he was on course or not, and cultural problems where junior officers won't question senior officers, etc. And note that in this case, ground control DENIED the pilot clearance to get to higher altitude in the rough weather.

Some other analysis I've heard, on CNN:

* That this region of the world has unusually dynamic rough weather, and that whereas in the US we do flight delays all the time and avoid bad weather, they're not doing this in Asia, in Asia they are accepting risks that we don't in the US

* These airlines have grown so fast, it's just a valuejet syndrome going on, the pilots don't have the experience, the ground control doesn't, the system is not as good as north america and europe

* The weather this plane was flying in was so bad, that if had been in the US then the plane would never have taken off to start with

I think what's going on with these malaysian airliners is the overall thing we see with China, and Asia as a whole (other than a Japan or South Korea), where the developing nations are just growing so fast. It's like how in China, they don't really have it worked out about how to handle traffic accidents in such, with so many new drivers on the road now and all the highways are new and everything is new and being done for the first time.

It's probably just best that nobody flies on these airlines, you'd better fly on a Western liner. I ain't stupid, that's what I'd do, and I think I'd check the darn weather myself before getting on board.

EDIT: some other things

* It looks like the aircraft stalled, was going at 100mph

* Pilot was denied clearance to climb due to other air traffic. But he climbed anyway, and supposedly that's not smart in immediate bad weather you're best to make a turn left or right but not climb (that's what a talking head on CNN says anyhow :lol: )

CNN was talking about a Air France flight that went down from a stall, and how pilots were just confused by all the buzzers and alarms and they misunderstood the situation they were in.

I'm not sure what the bottom line is, I think maybe it's TOO MUCH autopilot going on and then SHTF and the pilots aren't flying the plane to start with so then they don't know what they're doing.
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Re: AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 31 Dec 2014, 03:40:32

That is paranoid & inflammatory. Statistically, deaths per air journey, 2014 was the safest year since records began in 1945. We don't yet know for sure what happened to this flight. The previous disasters this year could have happened to any airline. Air Asia has the newest fleet of Airbus A380's in the world. It has pilots of equal to the highest standards. Calling for a boycott if Asian owned budget airlines due to 3 coincidences, of hundreds of thousands of flights by these same airlines, us parochial & nasty.
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Re: AirAsia Flight QZ8501

Unread postby Poordogabone » Wed 31 Dec 2014, 03:43:20

Sixstrings wrote: ground control DENIED the pilot clearance to get to higher altitude in the rough weather.


What really happened
the aircraft had requested permission from Soekarno-Hatta Airport's air traffic control to turn left at 6.12am local time - an hour behind Singapore time - to avoid a storm.

The pilot of the Airbus 320 aircraft, which was flying from Surabaya to Singapore with 162 passengers and crew members, then requested to take the plane higher to 38,000 feet from its position at 32,000 feet.

"Request to higher level," said the pilot, according to Mr Wisnu, to which the air traffic control- ler replied: "Intended to what level?"

The pilot stated that he intended to rise to 38,000 feet, but did not explain why he wished to fly higher.

Jakarta's air traffic control then contacted Singapore air traffic control.

Mr Wisnu was quoted as saying: "It took us around two to three minutes to communicate with Singapore.

"We agreed to allow the plane to increase its height but only to 34,000 feet, because at that time (another) AirAsia flight... was flying at 38,000 feet.

"But when we informed the pilot of the approval at 6.14am, we received no reply."

The Straits Times understands that the aircraft was about 35 minutes away from Singapore airspace.


http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/airasia-flight-qz8501-singapore-was-told-request-change-altitude-201
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