[Guest]

Khaleej Times Online >> News >> BUSINESS
Gulf private wealth estimated at $1.5trillion BY A STAFF REPORTER, 8 Sep 2004:
DUBAI - Private wealth in the Middle East, particularly the Arabian Gulf states, is growing at an unprecedented rate, principally due to higher oil prices, according to a new research.
But there is evidence that the flow of money to the West-particularly the United States -that occurred in the oil shock years of the 1970s is not being repeated this time, raising questions over the attractiveness of US dollar denominated assets.

link

[MonteQuest]

But there is evidence that the flow of money to the West-particularly the United States -that occurred in the oil shock years of the 1970s is not being repeated this time, raising questions over the attractiveness of US dollar denominated assets.

This is a good sign of the move to the euro I have been watching. While many feel the invasion of Iraq was an offensive move, I believe it was one of a defensive nature to protect the dollar hegemony more so than about oil in of itself. Petro dollars is what our entire America existence is based.

[Jack]

This is a good sign of the move to the euro I have been watching. While many feel the invasion of Iraq was an offensive move, I believe it was one of a defensive nature to protect the dollar hegemony more so than about oil in of itself. Petro dollars is what our entire America existence is based.

I've heard rumblings of that - I suspect you're right.

The present deficit isn't anywhere close to sustainable.

[MonteQuest]

Imagine this: You are deep in debt and have very little money in the bank. But every day you write a check to cover your expenses. Your checks are worthless but they keep buying stuff because those checks you write never reach the bank. You have an agreement with the oil merchants (OPEC) that they will accept only your checks as payment for one thing everyone wants, and must have—oil.

This means everyone must hoard your checks so they can buy the oil they need. Since they have to keep a stock of your checks, they use them to buy other stuff too. You write a check to buy a TV, the TV shop owner swaps your check for oil, that seller buys some vegetables at the fruit shop, the produce man passes it on to buy bread, the baker buys some flour with it, and on it goes, round and round—but never back to the bank where it would bounce. You have generated a huge debt on your books, but so long as your checks never reach the bank, you don't have to pay. In effect, you have received your TV for free!

This is the position the U.S.A. has enjoyed for 30 years—it has been getting a free world trade ride for all that time. It has been receiving a huge subsidy from everyone else in the world. And as our debt grew, we printed more dollars (wrote more checks) to keep trading.

Then one day, one of the oil merchants—let’s say Iraq—says he is going to accept another person's checks—the euro—and a couple of others think that might be a good idea, too—let’s say Iran and North Korea. If this spreads, people are going to stop hoarding your checks and they will come flying home to the bank. Since you don't have enough in the bank to cover all the checks, you are going to be in big trouble! But you are big, tough and very aggressive. You don't scare the other guy (European Union) who can write checks (euros), he's pretty big too, but given a “legitimate” excuse, you can beat the tar out of the oil merchant and scare him and his buddies into taking only your checks again. And that, in a nutshell, is what the U.S.military is doing right now with Iraq.

[Barbara]

On August, Iran announced they want to switch their oil currency to Euro to get more value.
Guess what next?

[Permanently_Baffled]

In addition to this the US needs to find 23 mpd of oil by 2010 at $40-$50 a barrel , 70% off which will be imported ? hell the trade defecit is going to take one hell of a beating?

At what point does the amount of debt in the US cause the dollar to tank? , presumably this is when the economic growths stops?

Could the US go into serious recession even before peak oil?

As for the Iranian thing Barbara, I think the US are out of options. They cannot handle another occupation with Iraq kicking off like it is. Beside invading Iran would mean a further interruption to world oil supply and you are looking at $60-$80 a barrel and the mother of all recessions

PB

[Jack]

Imagine this: You are deep in debt and have very little money in the bank. But every day you write a check to cover your expenses. Your checks are worthless...

I don't believe I've ever seen a better explanation of the situation!

[MonteQuest]

At what point does the amount of debt in the US cause the dollar to tank? , presumably this is when the economic growths stops?

Could the US go into serious recession even before peak oil?

I maintain that that is precisley where we are headed, peak or no peak. Here is a quote from another post I made earlier.

"At 5.1% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and growing, the current account deficit (CAD) is now even bigger than the federal budget deficit. It’s also much larger than it was in the mid-1980s, which was the last time the CAD triggered a big financial crisis. This included a 40% decline in the value of the dollar, a huge spike in U.S. bond yields and the 1987 stock market crash. The problem with running enormous, open-ended CAD’s is the debt that must be incurred to finance those deficits. Eventually, as deficit piles on deficit, the accumulated debt starts to grow more rapidly than the economy. The U.S. has already passed that point. We now owe the rest of the world a lot more than it owes us. During the eight years of the Reagan presidency, the United States moved from being the world's largest international creditor to the largest debtor nation. While Reagan cut taxes, he had to increase borrowing to pay our way. Capisce?

The only thing standing in the way of a repetition of the 1987 fiasco (or worse) is the continued flow of foreign capital into U.S. assets. With the ever increasing value of the European Union’s euro to the dollar, more foreign investors are moving toward investing their money there, rather than in dollars. This trend could well denote great economic turmoil in the financial markets."

[MonteQuest]

On August, Iran announced they want to switch their oil currency to Euro to get more value.
Guess what next?

Barbara, This is right on the money. In the words of Paul Harvey, "Stay tuned for news!"

On November 6, 2000, Iraq announced that it would cease to accept dollars for its oil, and would accept instead only euros. At the time, financial analysts suggested that Iraq would lose tens of millions of dollars in value because of this currency switch; in fact, over the following two years, Iraq made millions. If OPEC were to switch to the euro as the standard for oil transactions, it would have serious ramifications for the U.S. economy. Oil-consuming economies would have to flush the dollars out of their central bank holdings and convert them to euros. France and Germany are the EU leaders with the vision of a resurgent, united Europe taking its rightful place in the world and using its euro currency as a world trading reserve currency and thus gaining some of the free ride the United States enjoys now. They are the ones who initiated the euro oil trade with Iraq.

In April 2002, the Bush administration quickly endorsed the military-led coup of President Chávez, an outspoken critic of Bush’s imperialistic policies. Although the coup collapsed after 2 days with Chavez being restored to power, various reports suggest the CIA and a rather embarrassed Bush administration approved, and may have been actively involved with the civilian/military coup plotters. Venezuelan's ambassador Francisco Mieres-Lopez apparently floated the idea of switching to the euro approximately one year before the failed coup attempt. Furthermore, there is some evidence that the U.S. is still active in its attempts to overthrow the democratically elected Chavez administration.

On July 21, 2004, the Venezuelan government said it may suspend oil shipments to the United States in case of an eventual conflict with the U.S.”: “In case of an aggression, that option would be considered.”

On December 7, 2002, the third member of the “axis of evil,” North Korea, officially dropped the dollar and began using euros for trade.

In May 2004 an additional 10 member nations joined the European Union. The EU now represents an oil consumer 33% larger than the United States. In order to mitigate currency risks, the Europeans will increasingly pressure OPEC to trade in euros, and with the EU at that stage buying over half of OPEC oil production, such a change seems likely.

[aldente]

There is an excellent article from William Engdahl "Iraq and the hidden Euro-Dollar wars", that is a real eye opener:
http://www.currentconcerns.ch/archive/2 ... 030409.php

[Permanently_Baffled]

On August, Iran announced they want to switch their oil currency to Euro to get more value.
Guess what next?

Barbara, This is right on the money. In the words of Paul Harvey, "Stay tuned for news!"

On November 6, 2000, Iraq announced that it would cease to accept dollars for its oil, and would accept instead only euros. At the time, financial analysts suggested that Iraq would lose tens of millions of dollars in value because of this currency switch; in fact, over the following two years, Iraq made millions. If OPEC were to switch to the euro as the standard for oil transactions, it would have serious ramifications for the U.S. economy. Oil-consuming economies would have to flush the dollars out of their central bank holdings and convert them to euros. France and Germany are the EU leaders with the vision of a resurgent, united Europe taking its rightful place in the world and using its euro currency as a world trading reserve currency and thus gaining some of the free ride the United States enjoys now. They are the ones who initiated the euro oil trade with Iraq.

In April 2002, the Bush administration quickly endorsed the military-led coup of President Chávez, an outspoken critic of Bush’s imperialistic policies. Although the coup collapsed after 2 days with Chavez being restored to power, various reports suggest the CIA and a rather embarrassed Bush administration approved, and may have been actively involved with the civilian/military coup plotters. Venezuelan's ambassador Francisco Mieres-Lopez apparently floated the idea of switching to the euro approximately one year before the failed coup attempt. Furthermore, there is some evidence that the U.S. is still active in its attempts to overthrow the democratically elected Chavez administration.

On July 21, 2004, the Venezuelan government said it may suspend oil shipments to the United States in case of an eventual conflict with the U.S.”: “In case of an aggression, that option would be considered.”

On December 7, 2002, the third member of the “axis of evil,” North Korea, officially dropped the dollar and began using euros for trade.

In May 2004 an additional 10 member nations joined the European Union. The EU now represents an oil consumer 33% larger than the United States. In order to mitigate currency risks, the Europeans will increasingly pressure OPEC to trade in euros, and with the EU at that stage buying over half of OPEC oil production, such a change seems likely.

Holy Shit , thank god we didn't join the Euro , I do not want an American nuke up my ass thank you very much.

Just one thing , the EU even with the 10 countires does not consume more oil than the states , according to BP the US out consumes the newly expanded EU+Russia+ex soviet states put together. But i take your point....

PB

[MonteQuest]

Just one thing , the EU even with the 10 countires does not consume more oil than the states , according to BP the US out consumes the newly expanded EU+Russia+ex soviet states put together. But i take your point....

Yes, this is true...but the EU does represent an oil "consumer" 33% greater than the US. Their per capita consumption is just less. I think way too many people are focused on the petro rather than the petro dollar with regard to American foreign policy in the Middle East. The strength of the dollar hegemony is far greater than our military. Here's a very good link with lots of references to back up it's postion.

http://www.rense.com/general34/realre.htm

[stepka]

Oh, oh, oh, I just read that article on rense.com. Now I think I'm finally beginning to understand. I had heard a little about that, but that laid it out more fully than anything I've seen yet.

It also explains why Britain has stayed with us in this war on Iraq, but not any of the EU countries. Though, refresh my memory. Is Spain EU?

And OPEC is still there, but that's because we've had so many pipeline disruptions in Iraq. Those terrorists are likely from other OPEC countries as well as Iraq. And Afghanistan. . . Explains why they dropped Osama like a hot potato. Wow, that just explains so much, I just have to go digest this for a while. My neurons are beginning to fire off. . .

[MonteQuest]

Is Spain EU?

Yes, Spain is in the EU. The reasons countries participate are complex, I would imagine. But , as you can see...it is about more than just oil and oil production stability.

If the US heads off on another colonial adventure after the election, say into Iran, we can be assured that the situation is dire.

[Guest]

Fed adds permanent reserves by buying coupons
Thu Sep 9, 2004 10:54 AM ET
NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it was adding permanent reserves to the banking system by buying coupons.
The Fed said it was buying coupons maturing Aug. 15, 2007 to Dec. 15, 2008 for delivery on Friday.

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6194365

Since the posters here seen rather knowledgeable on these points, does this mean anything? Is Alan giving us a clue?

[MonteQuest]

Since the posters here seen rather knowledgeable on these points, does this mean anything? Is Alan giving us a clue?

This is a common practice with the FED, but I don't follow it closely enough to comment on it's significance at this point in time. Raising or lowering requirements as to the reserves which member banks maintain on deposit with the Federal Reserve Banks has the effect of diminishing or enlarging the volume of Funds that member banks have available for lending.

Currently, for every $1 reserve they can lend (create) $9. When you borrow $100,000 to buy a home. The bank is only required to have $10,000 in reserve. They create the $90,000 out of thin air, so to speak. With our fiat money system, every single dollar in circulation, save the coin money, is borrowed or debt money. If we all paid our debts, the paper money would disappear. For more info, go here:

http://landru.i-link-2.net/monques/FRSpurfunct.html#III

[Tanada]

Tourism boom in Dubai, fourth most-visited destination world
(ANSAmed) - ROME, FEBRUARY 9 - Dubai has become the fourth most-visited destination in the world as tourism continues to grow, according to data released by Dubai Tourism.

Indian tourists ranked first with 2.1 million visitors in 2017, followed by Saudi Arabia with a total of 1.53 million arrivals. The United Kingdom came third, closing 2017 with 1.27 million travelers. China and Russia also registered very positive results thanks to the simplification of customs procedures. China ranked fifth (764,000 arrivals) while Russia registered a 121% increase on 2016 with its 530,000 arrivals.

The performances of the United States, Germany and Iran also improved registering, respectively, 633,000, 506,000 and 503,000 visitors. Italy also performed well with 214,000 presences, up 5% on 2016.

''Dubai - commented Helal Saeed Almarri, director general of Dubai Tourism - attracts an increasing number of foreign visitors, making tourism a sector that contributes in a significant way to the Emirate's GDP''.

The 6.2% growth registered in 2017, added Almarri, ''is giving the right rhythm to reach the target we have set for 2020''.

The fourth place in the ranking of most-visited cities worldwide ''makes us even more confident in our current and future performances; in this perspective, we set a new target: becoming the number one city in the world in terms of arrivals''. (ANSAmed).

LINK