Peak Oil News and Message Boards

PeakKYJelly wrote:What if Peak Oil was created not because anyone believes that the world is running out of oil, but rather to decrease America's dependence on Middle Eastern oil? What if a bunch of people got together to promote this idea of a 90% dieoff of the human population, just to whip people into a frenzy of supporting alternative sources of energy? What if all the PODesperadoes are just being played by the powers that be?

If it was an invention from ecologic idealists, peak oil would not have the attention from the academic and scientific community. The numbers just don't add up it has nothing to do with propaganda.
If this was the creation of the people in power, you would see peak oil propaganda in every street corner, you would hear alarmist speeches from Bush (the kind of those about terrorism) and he would create new arguments out of the problem so that he could pass new laws.

Those who know about peak oil and the likley consequences are those who question the mainstream messages and beliefs. They try to grasp the reality of the situation while those who don't want to see just deny everything that comes against their views.

OF COURSE Saudi Arabia says it has plenty of oil left. They have built their entire economy on the selling of oil. They are bound to the delivery of oil the same way the US is bound to the consumption of oil. None of the two want to see this changing because they have built their entire pyramid on this. To question this means to question the pyramid, therefore, the people at the top are making sure that the consensus on the situation does not change for as long as possible.
People at the top either in Russia, USA, European Union, Saudi Arabia are people interested in themselves and the power they have. What they do, they are doing to comfort their power and NOT to provide healthy information to the masses so that they can live more independently and freely.

What the world needs now is leaders who would deconstruct the whole system so that those leaders end up with no power at all and end jobless.

Which leader on earth would want to do this ? There is NO WAY any leader will do this because what drives someone to the top in our system is thirst for power (at all costs) and not gentle care and attention to the well being of others.

You'd better ignore the people whose interests are too intrinsically bound to the problematic they expose. This goes for Saudi Arabia and other middle east officials about petrol but there are many more exemples.

Isn't there an old saying in poker?

"Put up or shut up!"

I'm getting tired of listening to some Saudia oil official tap dancing about how he has a royal flush up his sleeve. Actions speak louder then words...I'll believe SA can pump 11mbpd (or whatever they claim) when I see it.

I suspect Saudi could probably do more than 9.5 for a period of time, but they'd regret it since they'd risk damaging their resevoirs.

They might be able to supply the market on a very short term basis with 11 by drawing down stocks.

at the beeb at the mo is
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4078700.stm

Raising oil output will be on the agenda at next week's meeting of the Organisation of Oil Producing Nations (Opec), the cartel's president said.

But Opec members are already pumping flat out and exceeding the cartel's output quotas, so oil analysts see little chance of substantial increases in production.

What few understand is that an Oil Field is not like a Coke Bottle. You can not put a straw into it ( well ) and suck at any rate you choose and expect to extract over the life of the field the same amount. If you produce the wells too hard ( High Rates ) you can in the end recover LESS.

So the Saudies must be BSing to put those not in the know of the techinology into a DREAM State.

Even if SA has that much oil they claim to have, what about the rest of the world. SA only makes up 15% or so of the world's crude.

Hi shakespear1, I'm glad you're back!

There is an interesting blog about the Saudis' claim on the Oil Drum. What do you think about the the presentation that the Saudi Oil Ministry made to counter Matt Simmons theory.

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For the last forty years the world has been using more oil than it has discovered. We are now using 6 barrels for every 1 found. What's there to discuss unless it's how we are going to live without the stuff?

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Prince Turki Al-Faisal, Ambassador of Saudi Arabia to the US, said in a Bloomberg interview at 1:00 PM NY time that SA is now producing at its maximum output. This was said in response to a question about what SA would do in response to an oil disruption caused by some conflict with Iran.

He did however state that SA intends to increase output in the next few years when some projects come on line.

In addition, he stated that insurance companies were raising oil transport surcharges in the Persian Gulf area, and that is adding to the cost of oil.

Prince Turki Al-Faisal is the Ambassador of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to the United States of America. Prince Turki was born on February 15, 1945 in Makkah, Saudi Arabia. He pursued an undergraduate degree at Georgetown University in Washington, DC and served from 1977 to 2001 as the Director General of the General Intelligence Directorate (GID), the Kingdom's main foreign intelligence service. In 2002, he was appointed Ambassador to the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Fahd bin Abdulaziz. On July 20, 2005 Prince Turki was appointed Ambassador to the United States and on December 2, 2005 Prince Turki presented his credentials to President George W. Bush at the White House. His Royal Highness is also one of the founders of the King Faisal Foundation, Chairman of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh, and Co-Chair of the C100 Group, which has been affiliated with the World Economic Forum since 2003.

US Newswire

Funny that, they said all they needed were customers the other week...

It looks like the Race to $100+ a Barrel has officially Began.

Saudi Arabia (i.e. the world) peaking & $70 barrel all in the same day .... sheesh ...



Edit: typo

Bloomberg left the part out about current SA production in its first story.:

Oil Reaches $70 a Barrel on Rising Demand, Iraq War, Saudi Ambassador Says

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Rising world demand and the war in Iraq have helped send crude oil to $70 a barrel, according to Prince Turki al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the U.S.

``The increase in oil prices has many reasons,'' al-Faisal said in an interview today. He cited strong demand in China, India and the U.S., a lack of refinery capacity and the violence in Iraq. ``There is enough production capacity in the world. There is even a glut in production capacity now.''

Saudi Arabia is the world's biggest oil exporter.

Oil prices in New York have more than tripled since the start of 2002, reaching $70 a barrel in New York today for the first time since late August, when Hurricane Katrina damaged production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Bloomberg

I think it is important to read all of these releases quite carefully to make sure we don't read between the lines with too much enthusiasm.

The statement that they are producing at their maximum output does not speak to whether they have produced half of their reserves or reached the ultimate plateau level of production. Part of the projects coming on line involve infill drilling in existing fields and facility upgrades....the reserves may be there already, they just need to be able to produce more volume and hence be able to handle more gas and water.

What's interesting is he doesn't actually say what the production currently is. According to WoodMackenzie they never reached 10 MMBD in 2005 (IHS Energy hasn't updated their 2005 production numbers yet). Either they are currently producing at the 10 - 10.5 MMBD number that other reps from Aramco have been talking about as capacity or the capacity is actually less or the Crown Prince is speaking in generalties rather than specifics?

Seahorse do you have anymore info on this?

Expanded story (still no production comments):

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- A U.S. military strike on Iran may not eliminate any nuclear threat and would spark retaliation against American interests worldwide, Prince Turki al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia's new ambassador to the U.S., said in an interview.

``I think the consequences of military action in Iran would be as unhealthy as it has been in Iraq, if not more so,'' Faisal, 61, said today in Washington. A U.S. attack might fail if there are secret nuclear installations in Iran, and would be complicated by the proximity of civilians to known sites, he said.

Faisal, the former Saudi intelligence chief, said his country had received no confirmation directly from the Bush administration that it is weighing air attacks on suspected nuclear weapons development sites in Iran. The New Yorker magazine reported April 8 that military planners were considering such strikes.

Bloomberg

Rockdoc and everyone else,

I checked the OPEC Monthly Oil report to see the numbers Opec is reporting. Interesting, here's what it reports about Saudi Arabia (most current report is data for Feb 06):

SA produced 9.394 mbpd oil, total Opec = 29,713 mbpd
SA operating rigs are 52 (contrasted with 160 give to Rockdoc at his meeting)

Opec Montly Oil Report March 06

Compare this to the Opec numbers for November 05:

SA produced 9.458 mbpd oil, Total Opec = 29,965 mbpd
SA had 43 rigs

Opec Monthly Oil Report Dec 05

Compare the above to 04 Opec numbers, and you see SA and Opec are producing slightly less now than in 04:

In October 04, SA pumped 9508 mbpd total OPEC 30,228
In November 04, SA pumped 9,450 mbpd, total Opec 29,067 according to the Opec 04 Annual Review OPEC 04 Annual Review

Here's the numbers again in chonological order:

October 04: SA production = 9508 mbpd, Opec = 30228;
November 04: SA = 9450 mbpd, Opec = 29067 mbpd;
November 05: SA = 9.458 mbpd oil, Opec = 29,965 mbpd;
February 06: SA =9.394 mbpd oil, Opec = 29,713 mbpd

Interestingly, Opec isn't producing anymore now than it was in 2004. The question is why? SA has repeatedly mentioned new projects coming on line to increase production to 12 mbpd. However, I believe the truth is that the new capacity is simply offsetting declines. I believe this bc the Opec/SA numbers aren't increasing and bc in 2004, Sadad al-Husseini said new Opec capacity to come on line was intended to offset declining capacity. Here's the quote:

New OPEC capacity is scheduled to come online within the second half of 2004 that may reduce the gap between supply and demand.

On the other hand, this is a limited volume from plants and facilities under commissioning and originally was scheduled to replace declining capacity in any case."

Oil and Gas Journal, August 2004

We now have the quote that SA producing fields are experiencing 8% decline, so the al-Husseini quote gives an argument that the new SA capacity coming on-line was intended to make up for normal decline. Who knows, but according to OPEC, SA is pumping slightly less than in 04 and so is Opec as a whole. At any rate, if SA is pumping at max capacity right now, and that max capacity is 9.4 mbpd, I don't see how they envision possibly producing 12 mbpd anytime soon.

Here's the link back to the SA 8% decline in producing fields. Peak Oil Forum Topic

Rockdoc,

What do you think of the OPEC report showing SA production at about 9.4 mbpd in Feb 06?

Also, what do you think of the Opec rig count showing SA has 52 operating rigs as of Feb 06? This is significantly lower than the number you were given of 160.

Assuming they only have 52 operating rigs, what does that mean in terms of what we can reasonably expect SA to increase their production number to?

seahorse2 wrote:
October 04: SA production = 9508 mbpd, Opec = 30228;
November 04: SA = 9450 mbpd, Opec = 29067 mbpd;
November 05: SA = 9.458 mbpd oil, Opec = 29,965 mbpd;
February 06: SA =9.394 mbpd oil, Opec = 29,713 mbpd

I have said this before but I think history will look back and point to October 2004 as the all time peak of World production.

Novus wrote:...I think history will look back and point to October 2004 as the all time peak of World production.

We've always known we would first spot it "in our rear-view mirror", and it does seem to be appearing there, doesn't it?