Peak Oil News and Message Boards

Out of curiosity, what would happen if the US ultimately came to war with China over oil, taiwan, etc? What would become of this debt? Is it nuts to think that we could wipe out the entire debt we owe to the Chinese by merely stating we will not honor those notes? Obviously there would be some international backlash, but isn't debt after all merely paper? I know zilch about international banking and finance, and hate to sound entirely ignorant but am hoping someone might shed some light on this. I keep reading that the national debt is a loan we never intend to pay back. Is the idea that as long as the economy grows faster than the interest payments on the debt the system is stable?

StayOnTarget wrote:Out of curiosity, what would happen if the US ultimately came to war with China over oil, taiwan, etc? What would become of this debt? Is it nuts to think that we could wipe out the entire debt we owe to the Chinese by merely stating we will not honor those notes? Obviously there would be some international backlash, but isn't debt after all merely paper? I know zilch about international banking and finance, and hate to sound entirely ignorant but am hoping someone might shed some light on this. I keep reading that the national debt is a loan we never intend to pay back. Is the idea that as long as the economy grows faster than the interest payments on the debt the system is stable?

Well, in the past the conquering country didn't have to pay squat back. If we said we wouldn't honor those debts, in other words, not make good on the Treasury notes, which are a promise to pay a specific rate on a specific amount at at specific date, the world world exchange our dollars for euros and the same scenario plays out like in my last post.

Yes, the theory is that if the debt is X amount of the GNP, it is not an issue if you can have infinite growth infinitely. When the trade deficit exceeds 5% of GDP it historically becomes unsustainable. Folks , it's like peak oil, once we go over that curve, its downhill all the way.

"TAIPEI (Reuters) - Taiwan plans to test-fire a missile capable of hitting China, alarming the island's main ally, the United States, a cable news network said on Thursday"
HERE

I fear, [as many have predicted] that this summer will be noted in the annals of history as the: 'Summer of our discontent'. A gyre powered by angst, unease, and unhealthy events is culminating...the ensuing explosion will change the world of today, and for ever more.

Rockets going off everywhere just when I thought 2006 was developing into a slow news year.

robski wrote:Rockets going off everywhere just when I thought 2006 was developing into a slow news year.

yeah. what suddenly happened?
Is it a full moon or something?

PTB must be keeping it under wraps to keep things calm, havent seen this anywhere else...

robski wrote:Rockets going off everywhere just when I thought 2006 was developing into a slow news year.

They're cheaper wholesale at the moment ... it's a price-demand thing. We call it Peak Missile in the trade.

SoothSayer,

The peak missile theory is discounted by most scientists according to the studies I've read. New missiles are being discovered and produced every day and there is no serious concern other than occasional spot-shortages.

Anyway,

even if we do reach peak missile we will transition seamlessly to different technology such as space based lasers. There are also less efficient but an almost unlimited amount of old type long range artillery shells which should stretch out the peak of all projectiles to about 2250.

No need to worry !!!

We are now witnessing exciting new possibilities in sustainable and renewable missile technology. Oh sure, the doom and gloom crowd will always whine about a future without intercontinental missiles and describe a bleak post-missile world in sad and unhappy terms, but call me a cornucopian if you wish, the world will have plenty of missiles far into the future.

eastbay wrote:The peak missile theory is discounted by most scientists according to the studies I've read. New missiles are being discovered and produced every day and there is no serious concern other than occasional spot-shortages.

But you fail to factor in the 'Net Missile' concept. As explosives become more and more difficult to produce, the number of missiles that can be manufactured per year will decrease. It is true that there will continue to be new missiles available for quite sometime, but as available levels drop, the missile manufacturing countries will be forced to supply their own needs first.

This will mean that there will be less missiles available on the open market for countries without missile manufacturing capabilities to purchase. After all, you can't very well expect a country to show up for a war and be forced to supply its oppenents missiles as well as its own (especially if there aren't enough to go around).

eastbay wrote:SoothSayer,

The peak missile theory is discounted by most scientists according to the studies I've read. New missiles are being discovered and produced every day and there is no serious concern other than occasional spot-shortages.

eastbay, you are clearly in denial.

They were no rocket missiles in the Stone Age but their availability rapidly ramped up in the 1970s and 1980s.

However whilst we will never run out of missiles, our capacity to PRODUCE them is limited.

This was in fact predicted way back in 1941 by a Chinese scientist called Weeez Bang ... however he was mocked at the time.

In the 1990s the world missile production capacity began to decline, resulting in the downfall of the Russian Empire.

It is a dark secret that the number of missiles made worldwide drops year by year.

Why do you think that "Firework Night" in the UK is become more restricted and less exciting each year?

Why do you think that so many Minuteman missiles have been put into retirement?

The Korean and Taiwan missiles are simply the last throes of a dying technology.

As madpaddy says we need to migrate to new technologies ASAP ... but there is no technofix .... wooden clubs - yes, lasers - no.

Well I can see where this conversation is going--- downhill fast.

Listen up. Missiles are here to stay. In the future they will be powered by very renewable solids such as aluminum ( I love the way the British pronounce that word) -based propellants or by other yet-unknown energies and power sources of a kind we can not even imagine.

Just because I believe the N. Koreans and Taiwanese will never run out doesn't put me in denial about missile depletion. It makes me a realist to know technology will fix everything and make happiness reign supreme over this land.

Missiles make us happy.
We want to be happy.
Therefore we will always have milssles.

Yep - we need them bombs & missiles - yahoo!

Well folks,
But what shall we do if for some obscure reason all available missiles will be used in short future and within few hours/days.

Oh, and we will no longer have capacity to manufacture more of them.

Such a sad time will come
Thanks god, we will have some horsemen at least

OMG, Asia's gunna be a dangerous place to fly in a few months. heres gunna blow each other up. WOW is all I can say. I am not sure whats behind all the rocket firings lately, but wow, there are a lot of em lately. Glad they cant hit Texas from there. YET!

Now listen up everyone, there's no need to panic because as every well-read and intelligent person knows, missiles are abiotic and replenish themselves naturally in dark unknown areas of the world and can be found just by looking for them and waving enough money around.

Keep shooting, everybody! (Or is it "Keep shooting everybody"?)

Either way, missiles are renewable.

Geez, as usual everyone is missing the main point.
We are fast approaching a negative EROEI (Existing Rockets On Excited Individuals).
As the traditional supplies of rockets are depleted and we relay more and more on the heavy rocket sand resources there will be an inevitable failure to keep up with demand, leading to more people to blow up than rockets to do the job.
There is simply no way we are going to be able to make enough.

RdSnt wrote:Geez, as usual everyone is missing the main point.
We are fast approaching a negative EROEI (Existing Rockets On Excited Individuals).
As the traditional supplies of rockets are depleted and we relay more and more on the heavy rocket sand resources there will be an inevitable failure to keep up with demand, leading to more people to blow up than rockets to do the job.
There is simply no way we are going to be able to make enough.

Dont make more Rockets, make more powerful and deadly rockets. Kill more pple with less rockets. Supply problem solved.