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Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover gave an amazing speech in 1957 that predicted many of the energy-related issues we are now dealing with. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2007/07/02/s ... -peak-oil/

Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover is known as the father of the nuclear submarine. He was also instrumental in getting the United States started using nuclear power to generate electricity. He was an advisor to Jimmy Carter, who is known for his interest in renewable energy. The world would no doubt be much different if we had listened to Mr. Rickover’s ideas from more than 50 years ago and acted on them.

Excerpts:
-With high energy consumption goes a high standard of living.

-Whether this Golden Age will continue depends entirely upon our ability to keep energy supplies in balance with the needs of our growing population.

-A reduction of per capita energy consumption has always in the past led to a decline in civilization and a reversion to a more primitive way of life.

-The earth is finite. Fossil fuels are not renewable. In this respect our energy base differs from that of all earlier civilizations. They could have maintained their energy supply by careful cultivation. We cannot.

-For it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today’s unit cost, are likely to run out at some time between the years 2000 and 2050, if present standards of living and population growth rates are taken into account.

-I suggest that this is a good time to think soberly about our responsibilities to our descendants – those who will ring out the Fossil Fuel Age.

Well guess what folks, we didn't get the memo and we missed the boat

theluckycountry wrote:Well guess what folks, we didn't get the memo and we missed the boat

Not rich boomers who can afford pricey motorcycles like you Lucky! You've got it made, just like you've said!

So why all the whining? Let the rest eat cake, isn't that what you just said your "get yours" generation is happily doing?

Not to take anything away from Hyman but as I've pointed out many times over the YEARS this was the common anticipation amongst my experienced cohorts when I began as a petroleum geologist in 1975. My mentor at that time predicted the shit hitting the fan not to long after 2000. Just a rough guess he admitted but regardless of the exact timing it was inevitable. One has to wonder if Hyman gained some of his insight after reading the predictions published by a well known geologist in the 1950's.

The exact timing would be determined by a number of unpredictable factors. But the eventuality of PO itself was very predictable. Even to a 25 year old graduate student. But, then again, I was doing my master's degree under a professor who had retired after 35 years in the oil patch. He had all his student gather at his house one evening every week for pizza, beer, and modeling PO. Didn't really impact my thinking very much at the time. But after 5 or so years struggling to find significant oil/NG accumulations it became much more apparent.

What a speech his insight in to history and predictions for the future were uncanny.

gollum wrote:What a speech his insight in to history and predictions for the future were uncanny.

If all the other peak oil claimants had used half a century time spans to bracket their predictions, they wouldn't have ended up with so much egg on face and poisoned the entire concept.

I think John Michael Greer, that Archdruid guy, talked about a long, slow collapse. Kunstler gets into some of that. They both rely on a sense of nostalgia to get their points across. They each want to rely upon going back to the past in order to face the future. Rickover is much more optimistic and forward facing. He was the same way about seeing how we might, eventually, get out from under the Cold War. He was more of a risk taker, I guess.