Peak Oil News and Message Boards

The oil price is still too low for SA and OPEC+. They are forced to continue the reductions.

The problem is we can no longer afford to pay for the extraction of fossil fuels, oil, coal and natural gas along with the refining and transport to the end user.

It really is that simple, the end user doesn't have the money so they are putting it on the credit card (debt in general) and making the smallest payment until they will default of it.

That's how I'm looking at all that's happening far this year, it's really about our need to get by with less energy.

BahamasEd wrote:The problem is we can no longer afford to pay for the extraction of fossil fuels, oil, coal and natural gas along with the refining and transport to the end user.

Spouting the same nonsense endlessly makes it NO MORE true.

The "problem" re the current oil price being lower than before is CLEARLY one of reduced demand, to anyone with a brain and a clue about how economics works.

If we get a good answer to COVID-19 and the global economy is able to spin up to 90% or so of its former level, including things like air transport demand, then the price of oil will tend to return to normalcy, over time. Just like with the great recession, and many previous cycles.

The problem is we can no longer afford to pay for the extraction of fossil fuels, oil, coal and natural gas along with the refining and transport to the end user.

BS.

Joe Sixpack purchased 9 gallons of gasoline per hour worked in 2019. More affordable than in the 2004-2016 period. Adjusted for the increase in fleet passenger vehicle fuel economy, 2019 gasoline was roughly as affordable as it was in the 1990-2004 period.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:

BahamasEd wrote:The problem is we can no longer afford to pay for the extraction of fossil fuels, oil, coal and natural gas along with the refining and transport to the end user.

Spouting the same nonsense endlessly makes it NO MORE true.

Worse yet, anyone can stand at a corner convenience store and watch folks come in and prove it to themselves as nonsense in 5 minutes. Here they come...buy some fuel...there they go.

How divorced from reality can a peak oiler get? Apparently, completely. Some thing never change.

Worse yet, anyone can stand at a corner convenience store and watch folks come in and prove it to themselves as nonsense in 5 minutes. Here they come...buy some fuel...there they go.

Worse yet. One can go to the EIA data set and say that the rolling 5 year period ending in 2019 for US total energy spending relative to GDP is the lowest ever.



https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... ec1_19.pdf

Baduila wrote:

The oil price is still too low for SA and OPEC+. They are forced to continue the reductions.

WTF is this line you call MAP_Price? I see a price of $60 in the end of 2020.

I thought the MAP_Price was something around $19 at this date. Now the ETP crowd just change the data to fit their fucked-up theory to the reality??

You should be ashamed to put bullshit TA finance analysis as anything near to prove your point.

tita wrote:I thought the MAP_Price was something around $19 at this date. Now the ETP crowd just change the data to fit their fucked-up theory to the reality??
You should be ashamed to put bullshit TA finance analysis as anything near to prove your point.

For the record, anyone remember when was the map price was supposed to hit $0 back when ETP was first being flogged here? That was at least two maybe three years ago when ETP was a "thing" and I could have sworn the doomsday 0 date was only 2-3 years off so it has to be around now.

asg70 wrote:

tita wrote:I thought the MAP_Price was something around $19 at this date. Now the ETP crowd just change the data to fit their fucked-up theory to the reality??
You should be ashamed to put bullshit TA finance analysis as anything near to prove your point.

For the record, anyone remember when was the map price was supposed to hit $0 back when ETP was first being flogged here? That was at least two maybe three years ago when ETP was a "thing" and I could have sworn the doomsday 0 date was only 2-3 years off so it has to be around now.

This is the first ETP image I could find.


That puts the end of industrial civilization in early 2016.

And here is the one that shows oil prices going negative.


Which means oil is free right now, isn't that wonderful?

tita wrote:

Baduila wrote:

The oil price is still too low for SA and OPEC+. They are forced to continue the reductions.

WTF is this line you call MAP_Price? I see a price of $60 in the end of 2020.

I thought the MAP_Price was something around $19 at this date. Now the ETP crowd just change the data to fit their fucked-up theory to the reality??

You should be ashamed to put bullshit TA finance analysis as anything near to prove your point.

+1

Blatant BS indeed. You are about right re the projected ETP $19ish WTI price as of midyear, tita.

I kept the PDF for Shorty's "paper" he "published" through the (now defunct, re the site) "Hills Group" dated March 1, 2015, called version 2 for times I wanted to counter this sort of nonsense by ETP pundits and blatant history revisionists.

The price curve we (including shorty) commonly referred to was the pink (light magenta) 38% curve (it wasn't even a line) on page 34 in the "Theoretical Max Price per Year" chart. Eyeballing that curve on the chart, the prices are $27 for the end of 2019, $13 for the end of 2020, and close to ZERO at the end of 2021, for WTI.

Even with a bad economy and a threatened global depression from COVID-19, WTI has recoverd to about $40, and has averaged well above $35 since the beginning of June, reflecting much lower demand due to reduced travel from the virus -- now and anticipated.

Show of hands for how many think that would imply a price below $15 at yer-end due to the economy collapsing completely if there were no COVID-19 at all.

(And shorty can't predict ANYTHING, so he sure couldn't predict COVID-19 over 5 years ago, before the history revisionists try that). Oh, and along that line, his projected WTI price, based on the exponential curve he had drawn, extending a curve fitting from 1960, has WTI at about $200 at the end of 2020. (Presumably, this line predicted the WTI price if supply / demand continues normally in a non-collapsed economy).

1). So if COVID-19 collapses the global economy completely in several years (due to all bad news and no way to get any herd immunity, which looks like a long shot, per the experts and vaccine expectations), shorty is dead wrong because it has NOTHING to do with what he projected re crude oil crushing the global economy due to being "unaffordable" to produce. He'd also be years late.

2). If it weren't for COVID-19, WTI would be humming along between perhaps $50 and $100, and the US and global economy would be doing at least OK, given how well the economy is doing overall, even WITH COVID-19, and how (despite the usual false doomer claims) it was doing just fine when COVID-19 struck, re the markets, GDP, travel, etc.

Two extrapolations based on physics in one diagram.



If you want to understand the thermodynamics, read this:
https://limitstogrowth.de/wp-content/up ... _EN_09.pdf

This link should work:

https://limitstogrowth.de/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Mar_2020_Thermo_EN_09.pdf

Baduila wrote:Two extrapolations based on physics in one diagram.

So the real question is, how does a Short sock puppet explain why the original work needed to be altered? Other than the obvious of course, Short having been wrong on so many things for so long that he just couldn't handle losing another bet, or having the riotous laughter follow him everywhere he goes on this site?

Baduila wrote:This link should work:

https://limitstogrowth.de/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Mar_2020_Thermo_EN_09.pdf

From ASPO? Are you serious? The same organization that dissolved in embarrassment years ago is now pretending it knows something about thermodynamics? Any chance you've got a better reference laying around, one from Matt Savinar on quantum superposition perhaps?

Real price and real production both follow the projections. The oil production in the US has fallen by 3000000 bbl/d, most of the reduction is LTO. Because LTO production is heavily energy consuming, the demand for oil has decreased nearly by the same amount.

Baduila wrote:
Real price and real production both follow the projections. The oil production in the US has fallen by 3000000 bbl/d, most of the reduction is LTO. Because LTO production is heavily energy consuming, the demand for oil has decreased nearly by the same amount.

Yup....looks better than the last one claiming the price of oil would hit $0/bbl....what was that, a year or more back now?

How many changes in projections are allowed before, you know, it is okay to post riotous laughter giffs?

Shorty too embarrassed from all the old calls to come out and play?

This dead horse has been beaten so much by now I'm surprised anyone still cares, even if it's just to mock Short.

Baduila wrote:

Real price and real production both follow the projections. The oil production in the US has fallen by 3000000 bbl/d, most of the reduction is LTO. Because LTO production is heavily energy consuming, the demand for oil has decreased nearly by the same amount.

What a moron. Seriously.

Hint: $2 WTI 2021 year end projection re the WTI clown is NOT REMOTELY like the $23ish line you're projecting.

But of course, for all the ETP theory advocates, math doesn't matter, regardless of their empty claims.

How much nonsense is your ilk allowed to spew before you stop being taken seriously? You passed my threshold at least a year ago. I just respond to point out the obvious for newer folks.

asg70 wrote:This dead horse has been beaten so much by now I'm surprised anyone still cares, even if it's just to mock Short.

Were you watching when the switch-a-roo happened to change the claim from $0/bbl a few years back to a different answer now happened? Or did Shorty and Co. just "pull a Trump" as it were, and gaslight the thing into existence one afternoon while ignoring the need to explain?

AdamB wrote:

asg70 wrote:This dead horse has been beaten so much by now I'm surprised anyone still cares, even if it's just to mock Short.

Were you watching when the switch-a-roo happened to change the claim from $0/bbl a few years back to a different answer now happened? Or did Shorty and Co. just "pull a Trump" as it were, and gaslight the thing into existence one afternoon while ignoring the need to explain?

I've lost track of exactly when oil is "supposed" to be $0. If it's now or it's two years from now there's a snowball's chance in hell that prediction will pan out.

Likewise, Short long ago changed his talking points over to financial manipulations so he himself no longer expects to see prices meet up with his chart. He'll still claim ETP is to blame for what we're seeing regardless of the price, though.

I've just reached a point of exhaustion with the whole topic and it all seems rather insignificant right now compared to COVID and the election.

We all know Short will never openly capitulate to having been wrong. I've posted a link to an article that explains why it is some people can't do this and why it's a sign of insecurity. At some point you have to give up expecting someone to demonstrate personal growth or maturity and hope that those around him see him for who he really is.

You also have to understand that every discredited theory always seems to maintain a small group of adherents. You know, flat-earth types. As long as Short has an audience of literally just a few who remain sympathetic he'll probably be motivated to keep preaching. So it's too much to ask for complete closure and ETP to completely go silent. I mean, I'm sure out of the billions of people on this earth at least a few liked Freddie Got Fingered. It doesn't really say much about whether something is a 'thing' or not.

There was a time when ETP had successfully hijacked this site but that's over.