Predictions of US vs China hegemony long term
Posted: Tue 03 Sep 2019, 14:30:19
Ever since WWII the US Petrodollar hegemony has reigned supreme. In 2014 China's GDP PPP surpassed the USA for the very first time, something that has never happened before. Back during the height of the Japanese economy of the late 1980's Japan peaked at around 40% to 60% of US GDP and was more or less compelled into signing the Plaza Accord which many agree lead to its 4 decades of lost growth etc. It doesn't appear Xi/China will follow in Japan's footsteps in terms of acquiescing to a trade deal that gives America full advantage without a fight for equality and mutual respect etc. For one thing China is a much bigger country with far more land and people and it doesn't host US troops and is not a vassal of the US Empire. The other fact is Japan never surpassed USA GDP PPP whilst China has broken that threshold back in 2014...
Trump's trade war is really about decoupling America from China as a means to contain China's continued rise. To their thinking, if things were let to play out under current status quo, it won't be long given current trends before China surpassess America as the world's dominant superpower. So given this perspective, to the US it would be better to cut all ties now, while the US is still technologically and militaristically ahead, than to continue business as usual and lead to the inevitable outcome of being supplanted as world #1 spot...
From China's perspective it realizes that America -- as the decling power -- has no intention of ever giving up the top spot and will do whatever it takes to contain or even reverse the rise of China... From the Chinese perspective One Belt One Road and Made in China 2025 are vital strategic projects to help ween it off American dependence/reliance and to create a new world order by ushering in a silk road 2.0 to bypass the need to confront the US blue water navy as America will try to blockage China's shipping routes etc during any time of tension or war...
For both sides there is this sort of "inflection point" and no one wants to lose the initiative, if China wants to ever become #1 it is now or never, no longer is valid the Deng doctrine of "bid your time", since America has in the last few years awakened to the fact that China may soon overtake it, so China's goal is to act fast and erode the US Petrodollar hegemony replacing it with its own BRI/OBOR/MIC2025 before America can fully cap its rise and ascendsion....
For the US, its goal is to decouple quickly enough from China, and to asymettrically target and destroy any tip of the spear Chinese companies/projects/tech such as the Huawei, 5G, DJI, EV, trains, etc etc to cripple China's plans to move up the value chain and hi-tech-ify its economy and to do so with enough force to set back China and permanently prevent it from successfully climbing the arch trajectory of replacing the US.
How will this most likely play out?
Trump's trade war is really about decoupling America from China as a means to contain China's continued rise. To their thinking, if things were let to play out under current status quo, it won't be long given current trends before China surpassess America as the world's dominant superpower. So given this perspective, to the US it would be better to cut all ties now, while the US is still technologically and militaristically ahead, than to continue business as usual and lead to the inevitable outcome of being supplanted as world #1 spot...
From China's perspective it realizes that America -- as the decling power -- has no intention of ever giving up the top spot and will do whatever it takes to contain or even reverse the rise of China... From the Chinese perspective One Belt One Road and Made in China 2025 are vital strategic projects to help ween it off American dependence/reliance and to create a new world order by ushering in a silk road 2.0 to bypass the need to confront the US blue water navy as America will try to blockage China's shipping routes etc during any time of tension or war...
For both sides there is this sort of "inflection point" and no one wants to lose the initiative, if China wants to ever become #1 it is now or never, no longer is valid the Deng doctrine of "bid your time", since America has in the last few years awakened to the fact that China may soon overtake it, so China's goal is to act fast and erode the US Petrodollar hegemony replacing it with its own BRI/OBOR/MIC2025 before America can fully cap its rise and ascendsion....
For the US, its goal is to decouple quickly enough from China, and to asymettrically target and destroy any tip of the spear Chinese companies/projects/tech such as the Huawei, 5G, DJI, EV, trains, etc etc to cripple China's plans to move up the value chain and hi-tech-ify its economy and to do so with enough force to set back China and permanently prevent it from successfully climbing the arch trajectory of replacing the US.
How will this most likely play out?