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Is this reserves by country infographic accurate?

Unread postPosted: Thu 02 May 2019, 00:06:56
by Keith_McClary
Is this infographic accurate?:
Image
I notice they show Kazakhstan and Nigeria but do not label them or give their reserves.

Re: Is this reserves by country infographic accurate?

Unread postPosted: Thu 02 May 2019, 16:55:16
by radon1
Don't think so. If the reserves of Canadian and Venezuelan quality are taken into account everywhere, then Russia alone has over 1trl gbbls of those.

Re: Is this reserves by country infographic accurate?

Unread postPosted: Sat 04 May 2019, 15:51:52
by Outcast_Searcher
Keith_McClary wrote:Is this infographic accurate?:

FWIW, I read several articles on this site. While it's an interesting site and I appreciate what they're trying to do (simplify topics for the masses, and educate people about key economic ideas -- doomers could learn a thing or three, but of course they won't), they are very bad about DEFINING terms.

Until underlying assumptions are well defined, statistics are kind of useless.

Re the oil Just looking around a little, I find WILDLY differing statistics on different sites. Sites which do a hell of a lot better at defining what they mean by oil reserves, economic assumptions, etc.

Googling "oil reserves by country map", I get different results. From the numbers, the above map seems to correlate with proven reserves from 2017, per Wikipedia. FWIW.

Under the "by country" article on oil reserves from that search, Wiki on "Oil Reserves" generally goes into different methods, estimates, assumptions, etc. but much of the data is older.

....

So, I'd say it's not too bad, if you want to use proven reserves by whatever assumptions the source provides. I see enough rough corroboration by other sources that the numbers overall seem at least "reasonable" re the top ten countries or so.

This being based on just a quick look / sanity check, and by a layman with no deep knowledge of the oil industry.

Re: Is this reserves by country infographic accurate?

Unread postPosted: Sun 05 May 2019, 22:21:29
by AdamB
radon1 wrote:Don't think so. If the reserves of Canadian and Venezuelan quality are taken into account everywhere, then Russia alone has over 1trl gbbls of those.


Of course Canadian and Venezuelan oil quality is taken into account when calculating reserves. And Russia doesn't have as much, regardless of what you think "quality" means.

Re: Is this reserves by country infographic accurate?

Unread postPosted: Mon 06 May 2019, 10:30:33
by rockdoc123
So, I'd say it's not too bad, if you want to use proven reserves by whatever assumptions the source provides. I see enough rough corroboration by other sources that the numbers overall seem at least "reasonable" re the top ten countries or so.


the go-to source for country reserves data is the annual BP Energy report. They do an exhaustive review annually and their numbers are consistent with the definition of Proven Reserves and consistent with individual country reporting. Many of these sites get their information from the BP reports, the problem being that many folks don't bother to look at the source of the information and the DATE of that information. Of course, Proven Reserve data from 2014 might just be a bit different than Proven Reserve data from 2017. :roll:

Re: Is this reserves by country infographic accurate?

Unread postPosted: Mon 06 May 2019, 14:16:12
by AdamB
rockdoc123 wrote:
So, I'd say it's not too bad, if you want to use proven reserves by whatever assumptions the source provides. I see enough rough corroboration by other sources that the numbers overall seem at least "reasonable" re the top ten countries or so.


the go-to source for country reserves data is the annual BP Energy report.


And not the commercial information available from IHS EDIN database, or RyStad's UCube?

I've been using the BP information for gas production lately, haven't ever ventured into their oil reserve estimates.

Re: Is this reserves by country infographic accurate?

Unread postPosted: Mon 06 May 2019, 14:28:44
by rockdoc123
And not the commercial information available from IHS EDIN database, or RyStad's UCube?


I've never had access to Rystad but over the years I found IHS data (and before that Petroconsultants) and BP data to be pretty close. If I wanted detail on various countries with regards to individual fields etc IHS or WoodMac were the best sources. That being said, they source their information in pretty much the same way and they often quote each other for data the other might have been able to access they couldn't. Best thing is BP is free and well laid out.
WoodMac has some advantages in that they include forward projections based on their discussions with companies and press releases by operators in various countries.

Re: Is this reserves by country infographic accurate?

Unread postPosted: Mon 06 May 2019, 16:04:07
by AdamB
rockdoc123 wrote:
And not the commercial information available from IHS EDIN database, or RyStad's UCube?


I've never had access to Rystad but over the years I found IHS data (and before that Petroconsultants) and BP data to be pretty close. If I wanted detail on various countries with regards to individual fields etc IHS or WoodMac were the best sources. That being said, they source their information in pretty much the same way and they often quote each other for data the other might have been able to access they couldn't. Best thing is BP is free and well laid out.
WoodMac has some advantages in that they include forward projections based on their discussions with companies and press releases by operators in various countries.


Rystad does something similar to what you are describing for WoodMac.

Re: Is this reserves by country infographic accurate?

Unread postPosted: Mon 06 May 2019, 19:08:44
by Outcast_Searcher
rockdoc123 wrote:
So, I'd say it's not too bad, if you want to use proven reserves by whatever assumptions the source provides. I see enough rough corroboration by other sources that the numbers overall seem at least "reasonable" re the top ten countries or so.


the go-to source for country reserves data is the annual BP Energy report. They do an exhaustive review annually and their numbers are consistent with the definition of Proven Reserves and consistent with individual country reporting. Many of these sites get their information from the BP reports, the problem being that many folks don't bother to look at the source of the information and the DATE of that information. Of course, Proven Reserve data from 2014 might just be a bit different than Proven Reserve data from 2017. :roll:

I just meant I could see a reasonable correlation to real world proven reserve figures from the last several years, so the data seems to be more or less grounded in reality, unlike various doomer blogs, etc.

I didn't claim it to be super accurate or anything. As I said, I'm a layman, and don't claim to know more than actual experts (unlike a certain fast crash doomer clown patrol and their take on economics).

Re: Is this reserves by country infographic accurate?

Unread postPosted: Mon 06 May 2019, 22:07:46
by rockdoc123
I just meant I could see a reasonable correlation to real world proven reserve figures from the last several years, so the data seems to be more or less grounded in reality, unlike various doomer blogs, etc.

I didn't claim it to be super accurate or anything. As I said, I'm a layman, and don't claim to know more than actual experts (unlike a certain fast crash doomer clown patrol and their take on economic


No problem. Just pointing out that the BP data is sound and very accessible. No need to go to all sorts of suspect web page sources with maps etc. It is all on the publically available BP report which is updated yearly.

Re: Is this reserves by country infographic accurate?

Unread postPosted: Fri 10 May 2019, 13:12:46
by PeterEV
The above figure depicts the **total amount** of reserves that have ever existed with the caveats mentioned. The 266.5 Gbbl number for Saudi Arabia is the "same" figure, 261 Gbbls you could of found back in June 2004 issue of National Geogrphic's article: "The End of Cheap Oil". What it does not show are the **remaining** reserve amounts.

However, the USA, Canada, and Venezuelan reserves have grown tremendously 22.667 to 36.5, 0.808 to 169.7, and 77.8 to 300.9 Gbbls, respectively. I assume it is due to the ability to process Shale Oil, Tar Sands, and Bitumen, respectively.
NatGeoReserveMap.JPG


When you couple the above idea and then view Exxon's World Energy Outlook: A view to 2040 and see the graph of world liquid production amounts peaking around 2040, you then get the concept that there are limits to resource extraction. It maybe why the car companies have announced switching over to producing Electric Vehicles instead of selling spark plugs, fan belts, and oil changes in the coming decades. They see what is coming and they have to embrace this reality in order to stay relevant and stay in business. **Another reason is that it will be cheaper to sell electrics than to sell ICE vehicles.** The cost of batteries are decreasing and the cost of extracting crude oil (or converting Shale Oil, Tar Sands, and Bitumen to something that resembles oil) is increasing. EVs are becoming cheaper to buy and operate than ICE vehicles. The crossover is happening now and may take a few more years until it is obvious and a lot cheaper to buy an EV than an ICE vehicle.

Whether the peaking of liquid oil supply is due to resource constraints or because it will be cheaper to own and operate an EV, is something that is not stated but would be an interesting question to pose the oil companies.

Re: Is this reserves by country infographic accurate?

Unread postPosted: Fri 10 May 2019, 17:27:19
by PeterEV
I mentioned an Exxon Graph in my post above. Here is a capture of the pertinent slide:
ExxonPeakLiquids2018.JPG

You can see the peaking as you follow the Natural Gas Tight Oil line to the right. Below, in the last footnote, is this remark: "Continued investment is needed to mitigate decline and meet growing demand". Exxon does not think we have the financial where with all to come up with the coin needed to do the E&P. It may be that we will be spending our money on building and maintaining renewable sources and buying EVs. That's the direction we seem to be going in.