MD wrote:AdamB wrote:Outcast_Searcher wrote:IMO, stretching the definition of "peak oil" to cover anything remotely related to a growth constraint essentially renders the term useless.
That is one horse that has already left the barn OS.
Yes. Many years ago. The term itself died with the singularly defined resource curve that brought about its birth.
That fact, however, does not make the discussion of its redefinition useless.
Quite true. And interestingly, and unmentioned among those who are discussing the redefinition, are those expending substantial resources to build not just an answer to that question, but quite a few more. Considering that these are the same folks who were smart enough to have not fallen for the original scheme, makes it worth watching.
Looks like it has been underway for 3 years now.
http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/documentati ... 140211.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/outlooks/documentati ... 140522.pdfMD wrote:The tag line "exploring hydrocarbon depletion" remains relevant. Hydrocarbon depletion in all its forms remains highly relevant, and the fact that early "peak oilers" latched onto one facet of the puzzle, thus defining the term in that context, is just normal to human nature.
Well, early peak oilers are probably those claiming either peak, or running out, in the 1886-1925 era. There were some middle peak oilers between 1938 to 1956 or so (bookmarked by Hubbert's US peak call in 1938 and again in 1956, including the Sec. Of Interiors written fears in 1943), and I would say the modern peak oilers began with Colin Campbell and his peak oil call in 1989.
So I'm not sure you meant the early peak oilers, but more the early claimants of the modern era.
MD wrote:So redefine the term, abandon it, or ignore semantics entirely and talk about what's important (in plain language), and skip the endless wrangling over made up terms.
Well, you and I can agree that peak oil is some poorly conceived and defined term, now rotting on the dustbin of its poor ability to foresee anything, but others are still quite enamored with the idea. Richard Heinberg, amateur violin player and peak oil expert extraordinaire is still using the term, as just one example of those who can't learn from history, and appear to determined to refuse to learn from their past mistakes in this regard.
http://www.postcarbon.org/the-peak-oil-president/