Peak Oil News and Message Boards

There's been talk about spare capacity so here's a thread..

First, Euan Mearns has a good chart just freshened up this morning in his Oil Production Vital Statistics September 2015 post



If spare capacity is a gauge for the "risk premium" and so price, it is easy to see the low level around '05, the bounce after the recession and the rebound up to 5mbd in '04 that finally broke the price.

Of course also easy to see is the decline over the last year. Iran is really the only one with spare capacity aside from KSA.

IEA data? Trust it?

ROCKMAN predicted several times that most oil exporters would pump everything they could at these low prices in order to get some income flowing in. From that chart it looks like he was right, and that is not likely to change any time soon without a major war in the Persian Gulf.

Yeah, P, I always take these positive projections with about a 50% grain of salt. Even if these projections are off by a lesser percent, the dynamics change in a big way. Not sure what the MOL of the petroleum industry is (as we know it today) but I am sure that industrial civilization's available energy will ratchet down to the point it isn't industrial civilization anymore.

Global-scale industries will fracture into regional/local cottage industries, on their way down to whatever the heck people can come up with via salvage, triage and scrounging. Resource wealth grabs will intensify, sacrificing whatever resources remain to conflicts for those very resources, sort of like a couple of kids fighting over a toy which gets broken in the scuffle. Not that they always got along even when there were plenty of toys to share...

"Spare capacity" used to mean "surplus", and it's that surplus that enabled industrial growth. I submit that this so-called "spare capacity" no longer represents a surplus, all other things considered. 'Eating our seed corn' comes to mind. Anyway, great minds will continue to analyse data in ways that avoid exposing the reality of our overshoot predicament. Bad for business.

Are you kidding me?

The Middle East is opaque. Not only is it extremely probable they have enormous spare capacity....it is highly probable they have enormous undiscovered fields.

The major Middle East war that was supposed to happen for the past 40 years is not happening for a good reason: there is lots of oil left.

The scarcity scam which you "experts" and your useless charts never reveal is the real story here.

This dumbass says the KSA oil is gone within 20 years.

http://collapseofindustrialcivilization ... an-pagett/

He's probably the same hapless forecaster as Patterson: predicted 20 years ago that the KSA would be dry by 2015.

Yeah. Some random dude says there's plenty- you idjits!

The Main Stream Maggots (aka Wall Street) are convincing the cattle that the transition away from oil must occur. Since these despicable cons are always lying, it can only mean that there is 10x the amount of recoverable oil they are telling us. As for all that bullshit about prices, capitalism (whatever that is), supply and demand, climate change, etc...doesn't mean anything. The cons pull their scams and thats the arena that passes for the truth.

Whether the shitwits at the Walmarts will ever wake up, I doubt it. They have the collective IQ of about 15. Its really no more enlightening than walking into a modern pig barn.

I quit. I don't see any hope in you people. You'all want to go hillbilly, or post your useless charts, or revel in your eco fantasy world of e-toys. No thanks. Bye. bye.

SL, can you start a sentence without calling someone or some group an epithet? It seems like your agenda here is simple. Call everyone else stupid in order to elevate yourself as the only expert who knows what to do. It's not a very effective rhetorical tactic. All it does is make you look like you have an incredibly fragile ego that needs fluffing by tearing everyone else down in comparison.



You're not the only one with this sort of perpetual-cloud-over-your head grouchy attitude, but you're by far the least capable of actually forming a cogent argument.

hey Starvinglion, you obviously didnt starve yourself into oblivion yet....so why dont you go back to sleep, as nobody needs you awake anyway...thx for passing away...predator