Peak Oil News and Message Boards

meemoe_uk wrote:>Curious? How do you reconcile that with this:
Probably by dismissing a lot of current US production as non conventional.
Otherwise, by that graph, and the latest EIA figures, the US has pretty much set a new oil peak in the last few months, so 1970-1971 may lose it's title to 2010-2011 as US peak oil at the current rate.
Peakers and doomers would never stand for that. So expect this site to be pushing the non conventional oil meme whenever the new US peak is debated.

Gruenspecht’s testimony provides a valuable primer on natural gas production, demand, reserves, and trends. This post excerpts some of the key facts and figures he presented.

Production. After a decade of stagnation, U. S. natural gas production increased by almost 17 percent between 2006 and 2010, reaching 21.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2010, the highest level since 1973. Production has continued to increase despite a significant and sustained decline in natural gas prices since mid-2008.

The growth in U.S. supplies over the past few years is largely the result of increases in production from shale gas formations. Shale gas production grew from less than 3 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d), representing 5 percent of overall production in 2006, to 13 bcf/d, accounting for 23 percent of overall production in 2010.



Demand outlook to 2035. Demand for natural gas in the Reference case grows by over 16 percent between 2009 and 2035. Consumption growth is driven by the industrial and electric generation sectors. Natural gas use in the industrial sector grows by 25 percent from 2009 to 2035, reflecting the recovery in industrial output and relatively low natural gas prices, which spurs a large increase in natural gas consumption for combined heat and power (CHP) generation more than offsetting the decline in natural gas use for feedstock.

Electric generation also shows strong growth in natural gas use, where 65 percent of capacity additions between 2010 and 2035 are expected to be natural gas fired. In addition to capital cost considerations, uncertainty about future limits on greenhouse gas emissions and other possible environmental regulations reduce the competitiveness of coal-fired plants.

Global energy use to jump 53%

Global energy use is expected to jump 53% by 2035, largely driven by strong demand from places like India and China, according to a report Monday.
Combined, developing nations currently use slightly more energy than those in the developed world, according to the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration. By 2035, they are expected to use double.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its International Energy Outlook 2011 (IEO2011) report, which shows an average 2.3% annual increase in global demand for electricity through 2035.

This growth, which will be most pronounced in developing nations, ultimately reflects a net global electricity generation total of 25.5 trillion kWh in 2020 and 35.2 trillion kWh in 2035. These figures compare to a total of 19.1 trillion kWh in 2008, according to the EIA.

Among the study's most compelling findings is that renewable energy is projected to be the fastest growing source of electricity generation globally. Total generation from hydroelectric, wind, geothermal and other renewable generation resources will increase by 3.1% annually through 2035, and renewable energy's share of global electricity generation will grow from 19% in 2008 to 23% in 2035.

But the International Energy Outlook is quick to point out that it doesn’t take into account any policy changes that may affect the energy mix across the world. The renewable industry knows better than anyone that policy is king, and that the success of a growing industry is tied directly to that government support.

The world currently revolves around prices for fossil fuels, especially oil. There are other factors at play, though, that could make renewable energy a bigger player in the decades ahead.

Third World Emergence:

Grid Parity and New Technology:

EPA Rules and Retiring Coal Plants:

Nuclear Concerns:

Partnership With Gas:

Military Leading the Way:

A New Wave of Marketing:

Building Standards:

Growth Through Crisis:

Carbon Markets:

The U.S. Energy Information Administration Monday predicted that as global economic activity rebounds and capacity in the United States grows, world oil consumption will outstrip supply from producers outside of the OPEC bloc, causing oil prices to hit the $120 mark in four years.

In its 2012 Annual Energy Outlook, EIA updated projections for U.S. energy markets through 2035. It estimates domestic crude production will hit 6.7 million barrels per day by 2020, a level not seen since 1994, compared to 5.5 million bpd in 2010.

Prices for crude oil in 2011 remained generally in a range between $85 and $110 per barrel. In 2011, WTI prices were lower than Brent prices because of pipeline capacity constraints that prevented complete arbitrage between WTI and Brent prices. Real imported sweet crude oil prices (2010 dollars) in the AEO2012 Reference case rise to $120 per barrel in 2016 (Figure 5) as pipeline capacity from Cushing, Oklahoma, to the Gulf Coast increases, the world economy recovers, and global demand grows more rapidly than the available supplies of liquids from producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

In 2035, the average real price of crude oil in the Reference case is about $145 per barrel in 2010 dollars, or about $230 per barrel in nominal dollars

First, despite big gains in energy efficiency and increases in “renewables” (wind, solar, biofuels), fossil fuels will remain the mainstay of America’s energy system for years. In 2010, fossil fuel represented 83 percent of U.S. energy consumption, with oil at 37 percent, natural gas at 25 percent and coal at 21 percent. Although total energy use grows only 10 percent between 2010 and 2035, the fossil-fuel share stays high at 77 percent in 2035. Oil is 32 percent, natural gas 25 percent and coal 20 percent.

We’ve become vastly more efficient. In 2010, it took about half the energy to produce a dollar’s worth of output (gross domestic product) as in 1980. The EIA expects these trends to continue; energy use per dollar of GDP is projected to drop 42 percent from 2010 to 2035.

Meanwhile, domestic energy production is rising and — astonishingly — import dependence is rapidly falling. In 2010, oil imports accounted for 49 percent of U.S. consumption, down from 60 percent in 2005. By 2035, imports could decline to 36 percent, projects the EIA.

But we don’t view energy this way. We clamor for grander goals: becoming energy “independent” or stopping global warming. And these — as the EIA report also shows — are unreachable anytime soon, if ever. Barring vast new discoveries, we won’t produce enough oil to meet our needs. Indeed, the EIA’s assumption about biofuels, which roughly triple by 2035, could be too optimistic. If so, oil imports would exceed EIA projections. (In 2035, the EIA expects biofuels to account for 12 percent of liquid fuel use, up from 4 percent in 2010.)

The same is true of global warming. It’s hard to see how, under plausible assumptions, greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced substantially in the foreseeable future. The pressures of population and economic growth overwhelm improved energy efficiency or shifts to “green” energy. For example, renewable fuels (wind, solar, geothermal, biomass) are projected to more than double by 2035. Still, including hydropower, they account for only 16 percent of electricity generation in 2035. Coal and natural gas dominate. In 2035, emissions of carbon dioxide — the largest greenhouse gas — are reckoned to be 3 percent higher than in 2010. This contrasts with the declines of 50 percent to 80 percent by midcentury that some scientists say are needed to stabilize global temperatures.

In the AEO2012 Reference case, the estimated unproved technically recoverable resource (TRR) of shale gas for the United States is 482 trillion cubic feet, substantially below the estimate of 827 trillion cubic feet in AEO2011. The decline largely reflects a decrease in the estimate for the Marcellus shale, from 410 trillion cubic feet to 141 trillion cubic feet. Both EIA and USGS have recently made significant revisions to their TRR estimates for the Marcellus shale. Drilling in the Marcellus accelerated rapidly in 2010 and 2011, so that there is far more information available today than a year ago.

During the first half of 2012, 165 new electric power generators were added in 33 states, for a total of 8,098 megawatts (MW) of new capacity. Of the ten states with the highest levels of capacity additions, most of the new capacity uses natural gas or renewable energy sources. Capacity additions in these ten states total 6,500 MW, or 80% of the new capacity added nationally in the first six months of 2012.

Most of the new generators built over the past 15 years are powered by natural gas or wind. In 2012, the addition of natural gas and renewable generators comes at a time when natural gas and renewable generation are contributing increasing amounts to total generation across much of the United States. In particular, efficient combined-cycle natural gas generators are competitive with coal generators over a large swath of the country. And, in the first half of 2012, these combined-cycle generators were added in states that traditionally burn mostly coal (with the exception of Idaho, which has significant hydroelectric resources).

Only one coal-fired generator was brought online in the first half of 2012...

pstarr wrote:And that was equal (in generating capacity) to one quarter of all the alt. plants. And trumped the whole lot on CO2 emissions. Sort of win?

During the first half of 2012, 165 new electric power generators were added in 33 states, for a total of 8,098 megawatts (MW) of new capacity. Only one coal-fired generator was brought online in the first half of 2012, an 800-MW unit at the Prairie State Energy Campus in Illinois.

A total of 3,092 MW was retired, from 58 generators in 17 states. Over half of this was coal, and another 30% was petroleum-fired generators.

The nearly $5 billion cost included $1 billion in pollution controls. That equipment will scrub out mercury and other toxic pollutants as required by new national regulations and an earlier Illinois law. It also will remove particulate matter, or soot.

The plant will use "the best efficiency and emissions equipment on the market today," Kuehn said. Efficiency helps minimize carbon dioxide emissions.

Global spare oil inventories tightened over the last two months, a U.S. government report said on Friday, which could lend the Obama administration some support if it decides to tap emergency oil reserves as the West applies sanctions on Iran.

World crude inventories in countries other than Iran fell about 1.2 million barrels per day in July and August, due mostly to a seasonal peak in demand, said the report by the Energy Information Administration.

The report, required by the Iran sanctions law President Barack Obama signed last year, is published every two months by the Energy Information Administration. A copy of it was obtained by Reuters ahead of its publication.

The draw was smaller than a 1.6 million-bpd dip seen last year in the same time period. But any drop in supplies due to demand, in addition to a sharp decline in Iranian oil sales because of the sanctions, could give the Obama administration support to tap emergency oil reserves.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently issued its latest power generation data. Its Electric Power Monthly report provides an overview of biomass power on a regional basis.

In June 2012, the U.S. produced 1.657 million MWh from wood and wood-derived fuels. An additional 1.657 million MWh was produced from other biomass sources. The production level represents a respective 8 percent and 1.7 percent reduction in power output, compared to July 2011.

The industrial sector accounted for 2.131 million MWh of wood and wood-derived power in June 2012, and 71,000 MWh of energy produced by other biomass sources. The commercial sector produced 316,000 MWh of power from other biomass sources during the month. Independent power producers generated a respective of 724,000 MWh and 1.144 million MWh of power using wood and wood-derived fuel and other biomass sources. Utilities produced only 128,000 KWh of power from wood and wood-derived fuels, and 125,000 MWh of power from other biomass sources in June.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its first Short-Term Energy Outlook for 2013. It also includes data for 2014 for the first time.

Brent crude oil spot price to fall in 2013

The EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price, which averaged US$ 112/bbl in 2012, will fall to an average of US$ 105/bbl in 2013 and US$ 99/bbl in 2014. The projected discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent, which averaged US$ 18/bbl in 2012, will fall to an average of US$ 16/bbl in 2013 and US$ 8/bbl in 2014, as planned new pipeline capacity lowers the cost of moving mid-continent crude oil to the Gulf Coast refining centres.

The EIA estimates US total crude oil production averaged 6.4 million bbl/d in 2012, an increase of 0.8 million bbl/d from the previous year. Projected domestic crude oil production continues to increase to 7.3 million bbl/d in 2013 and 7.9 million bbl/d in 2014, which would mark the highest annual average level of production since 1988.

Henry Hub natural gas spot price will also fall

Natural gas working inventories, which a record-high level in early November, ended 2012 at an estimated 3.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf), slightly above the level at the same time the previous year. The EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged US$ 4.00/million Btu in 2011 and US $2.75/million Btu in 2012, will average US$ 3.74/million Btu in 2013 and US$ 3.90/million Btu in 2014.

Coal share of total electricity generation to rise

The EIA expects the coal share of total electricity generation to rise from 37.6% in 2012 to 39% in 2013 and 39.6%in 2014, as natural gas prices rise relative to coal prices. However, lower-than-projected natural gas prices along with the industry's response to future environmental regulations could cause the coal share of total generation to fall below this forecast.

Global shale resources are vast enough to cover more than a decade of oil consumption, according to the first-ever US assessment of reserves from Russia to Argentina.

The US Department of Energy estimated “technically recoverable” shale oil resources of 345bn barrels in 42 countries it surveyed, or 10 per cent of global crude supplies. The department had previously only provided an estimate for US shale reserves, which it on Monday increased from 32bn barrels to 58bn.

The pace of oil and gas production gains has consistently surprised forecasters since horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, better known as “fracking”, were pioneered in US shale rock formations about ten years ago. Only the US and Canada are producing oil and natural gas from shale in commercial quantities, the department said.
Monday’s assessment indicated that Russia has the largest shale oil resource, with 75bn barrels. Russia and the US were followed by China at 32bn, Argentina at 27bn and Libya at 26bn.




The US report looked only at technically recoverable resources without regard to profitability, and warned the estimates are “highly uncertain”.

Adam Sieminski, head of the department’s Energy Information Administration, said: “Today’s report indicates a significant potential for international shale oil and shale gas, though the extent to which technically recoverable shale resources will prove to be economically recoverable is not yet clear.”