Peak Oil News and Message Boards

In spite of the worldwide interest in developing alternative energy sources, fossil fuels are expected to provide the bulk of energy in 2050, according to a study conducted by the World Energy Council and Switzerland’s Paul Scherrer Institute.
The next generation will produce and consume between 30 and 60 per cent more energy, with the biggest challenge being producing enough cheap and sustainable energy, the study found.

“It is a time of unprecedented uncertainty in the energy sector,” it said.

The authors of the study – which was presented Monday at the WEC’s World Energy Congress in South Korea – investigated two potential scenarios, one relying on a market economy to produce cheap electricity for all, the other providing more stringent market regulation in order to achieve international environmental goals.

Under the market economy scenario, it was unlikely that the overall objective of restricting global warming to two degrees Celsius would be reached by the end of the century; emissions were projected to increase by 50 per cent compared with today.

Both scenarios saw the greatest proportion of energy needs being met by fossil fuels such as gas and coal. Renewable forms of energy were expected to provide 20 to 30 per cent of needs by 2050, and 30 to 50 per cent for electricity.

The Swiss government’s Energy Strategy 2050, developed in the wake of the March 2011 nuclear disaster at Fukushima, includes the phasing out of nuclear power, and calls for energy consumption to be reduced by more than a third by 2035 and nearly half by 2050.

Under the market economy scenario, it was unlikely that the overall objective of restricting global warming to two degrees Celsius would be reached by the end of the century; emissions were projected to increase by 50 per cent compared with today.

None of this is science fiction; all of it is science fact, though the Koch brothers and their friends do everything they possibly can to deceive the masses that it's not true and that the conspiracy to deceive the public is to be found amongst the 97+% of climate scientists who say that global warming is happening and that its chief cause is human atmospheric carbon emissions. Though the numbers of the Kochs suckers might be declining, it's already too late; the Kochs were successful for far too long to avert disaster now. From now on, efforts to reduce climate-change will be efforts to reduce the extent of the catastrophe, not to prevent the catastrophe.

According to this study, the tropics, which are the near-equatorial region of this planet that's almost 100% impoverished, and that has thus contributed virtually nothing to global warming, will begin the period of permanent catastrophe starting in approximately 2020

Graeme wrote:Rather than pointing the finger at climate negotiations or China's policy, the Huffington Post blames the Koch brothers.

ROCKMAN wrote: I'm pretty sure we would see little change in the public's consumption habits. The people will demand the political system to do everything possible to maintain BAU as close as possible.

Fewer U.S. citizens consider climate change to be a "serious threat" compared to two years ago, even as scientific evidence demonstrates that the problem has become increasingly severe, according to a recent nationwide public opinion poll.

The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press survey suggests that climate change campaigns are not adequately explaining the latest science to an audience that needs to reduce emissions substantially in order for the world to avoid the most damaging effects of global warming.

The survey, conducted between September 30 and October 4 among a sample of 1,500 telephone respondents, suggests that 65 percent of the U.S. public considers climate change to be a "very serious" or "somewhat serious" problem. The results mark a decline in public concern from January 2007, when 77 percent of participants told a Pew survey that they were seriously concerned about climate change.

The difference could be a matter of statistics. However, U.S. residents have been subjected to many confusing messages this year from conservative media, fossil fuel-dependent industries, and politicians who question the scientific certainty of climate change. The rise in contrarian voices coincides with the passage of a cap-and-trade bill by the U.S. House of Representatives and consideration of similar legislation by the Senate.

Intense political debate, coupled with colder weather in recent months, may have led to the increased doubt about the climate science, said Riley Dunlap, an environmental sociologist at Oklahoma State University.

"We're starting to see the effect of this constant barrage of [climate change] denial penetrating society," Dunlap said. "There is a constant belittling of climate change."

The results, released last week, suggest that more aggressive action to reduce emissions would be embraced with popular support in both developing and industrialized countries, including the United States.

The U.S. data, gathered from sessions held in five separate cities, correspond closely with data from other countries. In response to a question about climate change concern, for instance, 95 percent of U.S. respondents said they were "very" or "fairly" concerned. Worldwide, 90 percent of respondents provided the same response, on average.

"If the public is made aware of the facts, without any media hype, across the globe they more or less think similarly when it comes to climate and the environment," said Chhetri, who helped manage a study group in Phoenix, Arizona.

Graeme wrote:Fewer U.S. citizens consider climate change to be a "serious threat" compared to two years ago, even as scientific evidence demonstrates that the problem has become increasingly severe, according to a recent nationwide public opinion poll.

Plantagenet wrote:

Graeme wrote:Fewer U.S. citizens consider climate change to be a "serious threat" compared to two years ago, even as scientific evidence demonstrates that the problem has become increasingly severe, according to a recent nationwide public opinion poll.

Actually, the scientific evidence is showing little or no warming over the last 10-15 years.

I'm a believer in global warming, but clearly the computer models and climate scientists that predicted global warming would occur in lockstep with CO2 being added to the atmosphere failed to predict the current decade of stable temps. The computer models need to be reworked so that we can better understand this curious decade-long stalling of warming --- and it really doesn't help when folks just pretend the planet is steadily warming even though it isn't.

Graeme wrote:Yes, Plant and ROCKMAN are part of the FF industry who are constantly posting messages to confuse us.

ROCKMAN wrote:Pstarr - "The Kock Broes are in the oil business, after all". And so am I. And I dare say if I had their money and used every penny to support developing all evidence about AGW and then broadcast it on every channel 24 hours a day I'm pretty sure we would see little change in the public's consumption habits. The people will demand the political system to do everything possible to maintain BAU as close as possible. Which is exactly what we see happening in the US, Canada, Russia, the ME, etc. today. Why would there be any honest expectation for a change...as least a positive change. The Woods Group, with a solid history of projections, anticipates coal to take dominance in the fossil fuel arena. The Kock Bros not withstanding, the path seems very well set IMHO.

Look for these trends to continue. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. our nation's "energy intensity" is on the cusp of a steady decline. Key highlights from this report include:

·Energy used per household is expected to decline about 27% from 2005 to 2040.

·Commercial energy intensity (defined as energy used per square foot of commercial floorspace) will decline about 17% from 2005 to 2040.

·Industrial sector energy intensity will decrease 25% below its 2005 level in 2040.

·Automotive energy intensity is projected to decline by more than 47% by 2040 from the 2005 value

International oil companies have a natural interest in following overall energy developments to see where their fortunes fit. The rising role of electricity makes the competition among energy sources more pronounced as switching from one source of energy to another becomes easier. This is why a long-term energy outlook from BP is worthy of consideration, for oil and gas producers and consumers alike. The latest outlook is based on a number of scenarios and have different assumptions for developments from now until 2040. The main scenario is rightly called the “evolving transition” scenario to reflect the speed of change in energy markets noticeable in recent years. The assumptions are the usual parameters that all forecasters must be aware of. World economic growth would more than double GDP by 2040 and 2.5 billion people lifted from low incomes; the world population increases to 9.2