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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left
Posted:
Sat 20 Feb 2010, 04:22:41by TonyPrep
shortonsense wrote:TonyPrep wrote:shortonsense wrote:What if the company invested 3 barrel equivalents of natural gas energy to get 2 barrels of oil out? They could make money.
Of course it would make sense to the energy company. It makes no sense to anyone else (except you and the cornies), unless that gas is stranded.
From the climate perspective, it makes no sense at all.
I think you missed the point on this one Tony.
How so?
I agree that an energy producing company will always consider the bottom line when making energy development decisions. But it still doesn't make good energy sense to put more energy into producing energy than the energy so produced, even if the company is making a profit in so doing. Of course, there will be occasions when the energy input, or a large part of it, is energy that can't be easily used for useful work elsewhere in society but can be usefully employed in producing a more useful form of energy, even if energy is lost. So, in some cases, it makes sense, but for society, generally, to put more energy into producing the energy it consumes, is not wise and not sustainable.
In terms of the climate, using an energy source that produces greenhouse gases when consumed, to produce an energy source that produces greenhouse gases when consumed is a double climate whammy, and bad news whatever the profit to the producing company is.
Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left
Posted:
Sat 20 Feb 2010, 11:42:27by shortonsense
TonyPrep wrote:shortonsense wrote:TonyPrep wrote:shortonsense wrote:What if the company invested 3 barrel equivalents of natural gas energy to get 2 barrels of oil out? They could make money.
Of course it would make sense to the energy company. It makes no sense to anyone else (except you and the cornies), unless that gas is stranded.
From the climate perspective, it makes no sense at all.
I think you missed the point on this one Tony.
How so?
The natural gas being stranded, or not, is irrelevant.
TonyPrep wrote:I agree that an energy producing company will always consider the bottom line when making energy development decisions. But it still doesn't make good energy sense to put more energy into producing energy than the energy so produced, even if the company is making a profit in so doing.
Tony, you appear to be teetering on the edge of EROEI heresy, and all because you are coming close to noticing the obvious.... "it still doesn't make good energy sense".......THATS the way to say it. Because it immediately follows what is obvious....companies don't make the decision based on good energy sense, they make decisions based on good economic sense. And its why EROEI is a standing joke in a system which measures value in $$.
TonyPrep wrote:In terms of the climate, using an energy source that produces greenhouse gases when consumed, to produce an energy source that produces greenhouse gases when consumed is a double climate whammy, and bad news whatever the profit to the producing company is.
Well, I suppose I'd worry about climate double whammys the instant the computer modelers can satisfy the science requirements of the geologists, until then, its near impossible to decide what the value, or cost, of a climate double whammy even is.
Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left
Posted:
Sat 20 Feb 2010, 12:08:06by SeaGypsy
TonyPrep wrote:So, in some cases, it makes sense, but for society, generally, to put more energy into producing the energy it consumes, is not wise and not sustainable.
Currently almost nothing society does is wise let alone sustainable. Society has to live long enough to achieve these; something which is not likely under a 'leave it in the ground' philosophy. Whether humanity outlives society and whether the likleyhood is decreased by AGW factors is another question.
Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 2 (merge
Posted:
Fri 25 Jun 2010, 17:23:40by Graeme
What Peak Oil? I've been going through the International Energy Agency's new forecast for medium-term oil and natural gas markets, issued yesterday. In contrast to the IEA's warnings of last summer concerning an imminent oil supply crunch, the agency now sees ample supplies to accommodate the level of demand growth it anticipates for the next five years. Yet while this scenario does not envision a peak in global oil supplies before 2015, its components offer ample cause for concern about the growing market power of OPEC and the risk of geopolitical disruptions. It also signals the growing importance of non-traditional sources of liquid fuels, including natural gas liquids (NGLs) and biofuels, which are included in the IEA's oil supply & demand balance.
The headline features of the IEA's oil forecast include continued growth in global oil capacity from 91 million barrels per day (MBD) in 2009 to 96.5 MBD in 2015. This is driven by the growth of OPEC's capacity, the NGL output of a global natural gas expansion that the US shale gas boom has accelerated, and increased production of ethanol and other biofuels. IEA sees this combination as more than sufficient to counteract a roughly 3.5% annual decline in the output of existing oil fields, including a peak and net decline in non-OPEC production within the next year or two. The latter won't surprise anyone who's been following the Peak Oil issue, but it's all the more worrying when you consider that it doesn't include the impact of project delays owing to the on-again, off-again US deepwater drilling moratorium, which the administration seems determined to switch back on.
energytribune
Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 2 (merge
Posted:
Fri 25 Jun 2010, 23:33:11by efarmer
The Peak Oil theory has seen subscribers set the due date for doom time and time again or defend that when the petroleum age is graphed against the long time line of human history what exact shape of a spike it will create. (a bell curve blip, an asymmetric thing with wavy top blip, etc.)
It is going to be a blip, of some shape or another and the shape is important for us because we
are drawing some portion of the very top in the space of a human lifetime.
They are good projectors, supply and demand always meet regardless of if they do 5 years or 30.
They just pack unconventional petroleum, renewables, natural gas conversions, etc. on top of the
conventional oil in order to make the projection work, IMHO.
The IEA has to have a geopolitical, technological, and economical perfect game for 5 years
to make this work, having said that, it also suggests that we work at matching the scope and
arrival of dire consequences to match an undulating plateau than to match the swift descent
implied by the simple Hubbert bell curve.
In the grand scheme of things, Hubbert said it was a short spiky thing rather than a long and low slung thing, and I suppose those of us who get to see the summit can add to the knowledge by chiming in:
"Yeah and it has a rippling, bumpy top on it to where you think each dip is the big one until it is."
IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010
Posted:
Wed 16 Feb 2011, 16:15:37by meemoe_uk
Has this been covered on this forum already? where?
http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdfpage 57
87.3mpd average for year
88.2mpd average for 4th quarter
And looking at the analysis, it would have still set them without the inclusion of NGLs and biofuels.
Another year, another fail for the 'peakoil is now' gang.
But, this doesn't mean anything to a peaker.
Don't wobble in your beliefs about panic and hype about an imminent oil shortage crisis.
Let JD explainNow you can have all the fun of hype and scare you had last year ( and year before that, and the decades before that..etc) all over again.
Because now.....
PEAK OIL WAS IN 2010!!!!And this isn't like all the other times we think peak has happened. This time we
really know for sure. There is
absolutely no way conventional supply can top 2010. And this is time, it's not like dozens of other years that there's been
absolutely no way that supply can go up. Oh no,
THIS...IS...IT!!!Have fun, like this lot...
yeah right, lol
Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010
Posted:
Wed 16 Feb 2011, 16:37:45by vision-master
All time high is a good thing?
This means demand is still increasing.
What happens when demand overtakes supply?
Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010
Posted:
Wed 16 Feb 2011, 17:02:13by Pops
Yea, the avg price looks like it was higher than all but '08 too (aside from the Iranian peak that is), funny how that worked out.
I guess it's just not gonna sink in that peak oil is about the end of cheap energy.
Shrug.
Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010
Posted:
Wed 16 Feb 2011, 17:13:58by copious.abundance
But . . . but . . . but . . . I thought we were supposed to be past peak???
I have just one thing to say:
AHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!vision-master wrote:What happens when demand overtakes supply?
This was supposed to be already happening by now.
Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010
Posted:
Wed 16 Feb 2011, 17:17:59by eXpat
meemoe_uk wrote:Another year, another fail for the 'peakoil is now' gang.
But, this doesn't mean anything to a peaker.
Don't wobble in your beliefs about panic and hype about an imminent oil shortage crisis.
Well, well, i see that you are not only a climate change troll, you are a PO troll as well, there you are, is all yours...
Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010
Posted:
Wed 16 Feb 2011, 17:45:10by sparky
.
spoting the peak is good fun and porndoomsters have a nose for rubbing things into
that doesn't invalidate the basic premice of maximum extraction point being imminent
with dire consequences for pretty much everybody
Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010
Posted:
Wed 16 Feb 2011, 17:56:04by TonyPrep
As I understand it, 2005 is still, just, the year of highest crude oil production. The 2010 number is about all liquids which includes stuff like biofuels which were produced from almost an equivalent amount of real oil, so it's double counting really.
According to the latest EIA short term energy outlook, the last 7 months of last year saw global stock draws - i.e. production wasn't enough to keep up with demand during that time, which was the back end of a recession for crying out loud. The STEO has last month showing a stock build but then it's initial estimate for many of the now stock draw months was a stock draw.
With all this and the price per barrel of most grades being over $100, I think OilFinder's celebrations are rather odd.
Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010
Posted:
Wed 16 Feb 2011, 18:26:24by Pops
TonyPrep wrote:With all this and the price per barrel of most grades being over $100, I think OilFinder's celebrations are rather odd.
Yeah, from the first line of the link:
Marker crudes approached $100/bbl in early January, prompting concerns over the impact of high prices on the global economic recovery
Cheering for whatever political party/sports team/favorite pundit/or in this case, BAU, outweighs events or outcomes in the real world.
It is strange.
Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010
Posted:
Wed 16 Feb 2011, 20:07:14by Xenophobe
I said it before, and I'll say it again (being proven right in real time is just SO nice), HOLY COW BATMAN! ANOTHER PEAK!
Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010
Posted:
Wed 16 Feb 2011, 20:47:59by mos6507
Pops wrote:Cheering for whatever political party/sports team/favorite pundit/or in this case, BAU, outweighs events or outcomes in the real world.
It is strange.
You have a way of putting it so succinctly.
Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010
Posted:
Wed 16 Feb 2011, 20:52:17by meemoe_uk
As I understand it, 2005 is still, just, the year of highest crude oil production. The 2010 number is about all liquids which includes stuff like biofuels which were produced from almost an equivalent amount of real oil, so it's double counting really.
http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/17jan06full.pdfpage 49
2005 : total supply avg = 84.1mbpd of which 4.74mbpd was NGL leaving
79.36mbpd conventional crude2010 : total supply avg = 87.3mbpd of which 7.10mbpd was NGL+bio leaving
80.20mbpd conventional crudetherefore 2010 beats 2005 for conventional supply.
latter numbers from most recent IEA report.
>With all this and the price per barrel of most grades being over $100. I think OilFinder's celebrations are rather odd.Oil is extremely cheap at $100. Doesn't any peaker even listen to their own oracles? Mat Simmons said a good economically sensible price for a barrel of oil was $4000.
At $100 a barrel of oil, a typical car combustion engine can do the work of around 700 men for just $4.50 an hour. Therefore it's still good economics to use oil.
>Well, well, i see that you are not only a climate change troll, you are a PO troll as well,It is not my fault the IEA report states higher numbers for 2010 than 2005. Nor my fault if oil is still extremely cheap at only $100 a barrel. Matt Simmons said $100 per barrel was a bargain. I agree.
Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010
Posted:
Wed 16 Feb 2011, 21:19:36by Pops
meemoe_uk wrote:Oil is extremely cheap at $100.
I agree.*
Unfortunately, the economies of the world and the US in particular were not designed around reasonably priced oil but around even cheaper oil - like $20/bbl (except for that bit between '75. and '85.)
* I'd pay $25 a gallon to run my chainsaw and walk to get it to boot!
Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010
Posted:
Thu 17 Feb 2011, 06:41:16by TonyPrep
meemoe-uk,
The EIA publishes estimates for crude and lease condensate, no need to try and back-calculate it yourself. Unfortunately, they are always several months behind, so we won't know their full 2010 estimate until next month, I think. However, the 10 month average for 2010 is still behind the 2008 average, which is behind the 2005 average of daily production. The 2005 figure is 73.718 million barrels per day.
They have changed their format for delivering this information, and haven't yet posted February's update, which is a bit lax of them.
Actually, a couple of months ago, I expected the 2010 average to just pip the 2005 average but now I'm not so sure. However, at least the crude oil figure doesn't double count anything.
Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010
Posted:
Thu 17 Feb 2011, 07:23:47by Adelaidewonderer
2005 : total supply avg = 84.1mbpd of which 4.74mbpd was NGL leaving 79.36mbpd conventional crude
2010 : total supply avg = 87.3mbpd of which 7.10mbpd was NGL+bio leaving 80.20mbpd conventional crude
Well its good to see that a 4% increase in supply, over the 5 year period, only caused a 100% increase in the price of crude over the 5 year period. All someone needs to explain to me , is tell me why i am paying 100% more for my oil, when my income only increased by 20% in the 5 year period. Gee, if my expenditure on petrol has to double every 5 years, i will be using 80% of my income to get to work in 20 years time. But i guess it doesnt matter if i can still buy the petrol.
Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010
Posted:
Thu 17 Feb 2011, 07:55:52by meemoe_uk
>The EIA publishes estimates for crude and lease condensate, no need to try and back-calculate it yourself.
Well it was the IEA ( International Energy Agency ) figures I was
using, not the EIA ( Energy Information Administration ) figures.
Maybe when the EIA release a report we can have another thread, " EIA : world sets all time high oil supply record in 2010 ".
They would make a nice pair of threads at the top of this forum board. i.e. it would send a good hard message out to the 'peak oil crisis is now' gang. Don't you think?
>tell me why i am paying 100% more for my oil
Because the industry is in a state of upheaval as the anglo american majors move into the middle east. This upheaval has been going on since 2001, it is nearly over. I estimate by 2014-15 things will settle down and the price of oil will drop substancially and stay down.