[Graeme]

Has the World Already Passed “Peak Oil”?

According to the 25-year forecast in the IEA's latest annual World Energy Outlook, the most likely scenario is for crude oil production to stay on a plateau at about 68 to 69 million barrels per day.

In this scenario, crude oil production "never regains its all-time peak of 70 million barrels per day reached in 2006," said IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2010.

In previous years, the IEA had predicted that crude oil production would continue to rise for at least another couple of decades.

Now, because of rising oil prices, declines in investment by the oil industry, and new commitments by some nations to cutting greenhouse gas emissions, the new forecast says oil production is likely to be lower than the IEA had expected.

The projected flat crude oil production doesn’t translate into an immediate shortage of fuels for the world’s cars and trucks. IEA actually projects that the total production of what it calls “petroleum fuels” is most likely to continue steadily rising, reaching about 99 million barrels per day by 2035.

This growth in liquid fuels would come entirely from unconventional sources, including "natural gas liquids," which are created as a by-product of tapping natural gas reservoirs.

nationalgeographic

[vision-master]

Just heard on the BBC news that oil demand is increasing. At some point ppl will be priced out of the market. It's NOT sustainable.

[papa moose]

nationalgeographic

What will people in 7 years time sitting in the dentists waiting room reading old nat geos make of this??
Assuming that such a thing as a dentist's waiting room still exists.

[ohanian]

nationalgeographic

What will people in 7 years time sitting in the dentists waiting room reading old nat geos make of this??
Assuming that such a thing as a dentist's waiting room still exists.

There will ALWAYS be dentists (and by corollary dentist waiting room). You can bet your aching tooth on it!

[Pops]

The IEA has been lowering their 25 year "demand" forecast by 5-10% per year since '08 .

No surprise really, they haven't been as bad at forecasting as Yergin but they can't even forecast the current year (while we're in it) as well as our panel of experts. Why anyone would pay them - or Yergin - to make a 25-year forecast into the future is beyond me.

Now they forecast conventional oil to peak 5 years ago (because of declines in investment by the oil industry) but insist NG liquids will come to the rescue.

OK

[Pops]

From 2009:

In particular they [IEA whistleblower] question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook [of 2009], believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.

Now the "peak oil" theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.

"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources," he added.

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.

So even though the IEA has 150 years of conventional oil history to base it's forecasts on and gets them wrong anyway, we should just lap up the rosy scenario they are pitching based on a couple of years of fracking?