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World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 16 Nov 2010, 20:22:57

World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

At the current rate of consumption of 85.22 million barrels per day versus oil reserves calculated at 1.332 trillion barrels in 2008, the global supply of oil will run out by 2041, according to a study published online by Environmental Science and Technology. The estimate assumes that the annual growth of consumption stays at 1.3 percent.

The U.S. study by researchers at the University of California – Davis, also said that when oil is gone, it would take at least a century for man to develop other alternative energy sources to sustain the world’s economy.

Using a complex equation, the researchers concluded that companies who are currently developing alternative energy sources such as bio-diesel or ethanol would lack the capital needed to replace the production by traditional oil companies of today. They project that growth in the alternative sector would be far less than the growth to be displayed by oil companies in the near future as the world would be increasingly hungry for oil.

They said that alternative energy sources must be developed much quicker and be made commercially viable by 2041 to power vehicles and run industries.


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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby americandream » Tue 16 Nov 2010, 20:55:19

Graeme wrote:World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

At the current rate of consumption of 85.22 million barrels per day versus oil reserves calculated at 1.332 trillion barrels in 2008, the global supply of oil will run out by 2041, according to a study published online by Environmental Science and Technology. The estimate assumes that the annual growth of consumption stays at 1.3 percent.

The U.S. study by researchers at the University of California – Davis, also said that when oil is gone, it would take at least a century for man to develop other alternative energy sources to sustain the world’s economy.

Using a complex equation, the researchers concluded that companies who are currently developing alternative energy sources such as bio-diesel or ethanol would lack the capital needed to replace the production by traditional oil companies of today. They project that growth in the alternative sector would be far less than the growth to be displayed by oil companies in the near future as the world would be increasingly hungry for oil.

They said that alternative energy sources must be developed much quicker and be made commercially viable by 2041 to power vehicles and run industries.


seerpress



Lol. It will be amusing to observe an alternative means of feeding this voracious machine with its potential for 6 billion and its propensity to create waste no sooner does the next shopping season come round.
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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 16 Nov 2010, 21:07:54

Yep, we've got 31 years to do it. Should be interesting watch to say the least.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 16 Nov 2010, 22:42:33

Graeme wrote:
the global supply of oil will run out by 2041,
...
The estimate assumes that the annual growth of consumption stays at 1.3 percent.

Are they really thinking it will rise exponentially at 1.3% per year and then drop to zero?

No bell shaped curves for these guys - they are extreme cliffists.
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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby lper100km » Wed 17 Nov 2010, 00:59:11

Do they explain why they are so optimistic? :o
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The world is not awash in oil yet


Unread postby AdamB » Mon 15 Jan 2018, 01:38:20


The past seven years were both very exciting, and very difficult for the global energy markets. Today’s market faces two key challenges, both the product of human innovation and technological advancement. The first is the challenge faced by oil producers to rebalance the market amid new supplies from unconventional sources due to new and improved techniques to unlock them. The second challenge, one that is still developing, involves new automobile technology as world leaders race to ban combustion engines in favor of electrical vehicles. The first challenge is the most immediate. The technological advancement that led to what is known as the “shale oil revolution” has made conventional exporters rethink how they plan their economic strategies for the future. “For the first time in the history of oil, I see oil competing with oil,” said Abdullah Al-Attiyah, Qatar’s former minister of energy, at an industry


The world is not awash in oil yet
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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby MD » Mon 15 Jan 2018, 02:49:48

oh my. more bullshit.

everything is going to change, dramatically and hopefully not too suddenly.

be happy that you live in the most interesting times in all human history, and hang onto your hats!
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 15 Jan 2018, 12:00:21

Life is change. We start out as a single cell in the womb, are born after a million cell divisions, grow to adulthood with another trillion cell divisions, and if we live long enough die as an old fogey after about a hundred trillion cell divisions. Civilization is analogous acording to my history prof way back when, it starts with a single village and grows into a large empire if it lasts long enough, then it dies and something else grows from the debris like the mushrooms that feast on a fallen tree trunks in the deep forest.
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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 15 Jan 2018, 13:20:39

Subjectivist wrote:Life is change. We start out as a single cell in the womb, are born after a million cell divisions, grow to adulthood with another trillion cell divisions, and if we live long enough die as an old fogey after about a hundred trillion cell divisions. Civilization is analogous acording to my history prof way back when, it starts with a single village and grows into a large empire if it lasts long enough, then it dies and something else grows from the debris like the mushrooms that feast on a fallen tree trunks in the deep forest.

And this has to do what with total fast crash doom in 1941 due to no oil being available?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 15 Jan 2018, 13:57:00

it is interesting to look at this and understand the actual numbers. The claim was that "reserves" were 1.3 trillion bbls in 2008 and at the rate of consumption that would be used up by 2041.
If we take 31 Gbbls of consumption per year then based on this projection our current "reserves" should be about 1.0 trillion bbls. But low and behold according to the BP study in 2017 remaining world Proven Reserves are 1.7 trillion bbls!
Here is the problem...people do not understand the term Reserves nor what it means. Invariably the references are to either the IEA, EIA or BP analyses all of which report Proven Reserves. They do not take into account Probable Reserves or Possible Reserves nor Contingent Resources all of which can be upgraded to Proven Reserves categories without any further new field discoveries.
So outside of the reserve adds from US light oil during this period there was a considerable amount of reserves being reclassified as Proven. Without understanding how much 3P and Contingent Resources are out there any projection is basically worthless.
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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 15 Jan 2018, 14:41:38

MD wrote:oh my. more bullshit.

everything is going to change, dramatically and hopefully not too suddenly.

be happy that you live in the most interesting times in all human history, and hang onto your hats!


And with low prices and glut, we can do on about our hobbies....! Incinerating liquid fuels at furious rates being one of them!

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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 15 Jan 2018, 20:37:37

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:Life is change. We start out as a single cell in the womb, are born after a million cell divisions, grow to adulthood with another trillion cell divisions, and if we live long enough die as an old fogey after about a hundred trillion cell divisions. Civilization is analogous acording to my history prof way back when, it starts with a single village and grows into a large empire if it lasts long enough, then it dies and something else grows from the debris like the mushrooms that feast on a fallen tree trunks in the deep forest.

And this has to do what with total fast crash doom in 1941 due to no oil being available?


I was responding to MD comment that
Everything is going to change...
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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 15 Jan 2018, 22:29:17

Not 31 years but much earlier.
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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 15 Jan 2018, 23:55:43

ralfy wrote:Not 31 years but much earlier.


After making the same claim at LATOC, and reality having proven that 1) LATOCians are looking for daddy figures and 2) their belief system is religious is nature and 3) they were proven wrong by reality, what new evidence do you have to offer, and have you fixed the issues related to 1) and 2)?
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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby Revi » Wed 17 Jan 2018, 08:53:17

It really doesn't matter if it's all gone. It's the rate at which we are using the stuff that matters. The world economy demands 3% more every year. Anything less starves the system. Eventually it doesn't have enough to run business as usual, even when issuing more debt. Wars and shutoffs ensue. So far we have Syria, Yemen and several African countries on the war/shutoff list. There will be more and more. Meanwhile we will all pretend that all is well in the countries which haven't been turned off yet. 2041 seems a long way off, but I am pretty sure a lot of planning is going on about 23 years from now.
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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 17 Jan 2018, 11:38:54

Revi wrote:It really doesn't matter if it's all gone. It's the rate at which we are using the stuff that matters.


How so? If the rate is 20, and the amount available is 40, then in 2 units of time, it might really matter that it's all gone!!

Revi wrote:The world economy demands 3% more every year. Anything less starves the system.


Except when it doesn't. For example, between about 1979 and 1992 or so, the world used no more oil than it did in 1979, and yet was growing all along the way! Funny how reality just doesn't follow arbitrary rules, ain't it? Did you suffer any sort of starvation during that period Revi? (rhetorical question, if you had starved...to death...you wouldn't be here posting now!)

Revi wrote: Eventually it doesn't have enough to run business as usual, even when issuing more debt. Wars and shutoffs ensue. So far we have Syria, Yemen and several African countries on the war/shutoff list. There will be more and more. Meanwhile we will all pretend that all is well in the countries which haven't been turned off yet. 2041 seems a long way off, but I am pretty sure a lot of planning is going on about 23 years from now.


Now you got THAT right! How is your EV world going, because that is one way you can avoid the kind of problems related to liquid fuels that Happy McPeaksters worry about.

How are DVD sales going on the Love Story?
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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 17 Jan 2018, 13:05:37

Interesting thread bump. The original link doesn't even resolve anymore. Is that kind of the new hobby of posters? Bumping threads that comment on past current events that would need to be found on the internet wayback machine?

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 18 Jan 2018, 16:14:11

asg70 wrote:Interesting thread bump. The original link doesn't even resolve anymore. Is that kind of the new hobby of posters? Bumping threads that comment on past current events that would need to be found on the internet wayback machine?


What, pray tell, juicy threads have you started for people to discuss? Or is complaining about what others do your only skill?
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Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 18 Jan 2018, 17:10:58

I guess understanding the supply/demand dynamic is still beyond the comprehension of some folks. There will be oil available in 2041...and 2061...and 2071. It may not be anywhere close today global production rate. But as production declines the price will increase. That increase will be paid by a smaller share of the consumer market. In fact, as we've seen many times before, the price will increase to a level that producers will have to decrease the price or low production rates. But in a world with a much lower production rate, say 30 mm bopd, there may be a sufficient number of buyers that can afford the price. But if the prices reduce demand enough the resultant decrease in production rate will extend the life of the remaining oil reserves.

FYI: products containing whale oil can still be purchased in Japan, Norway and other countries. Needless to say very expensive. But it is still available today to some consumers. Just as SOME crude oil will be available for many decades. Well beyond 2041.
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