Peak Oil News and Message Boards

Just as SOME crude oil will be available for many decades. Well beyond 2041.

Rock, I don't think that's the point to this website or even to this post. We can still buy buggy whips (https://smile.amazon.com/Intrepid-International-Driving-Whip-53-Inch/dp/B000FFDVLU/ref=sr_1_9?ie=UTF8&qid=1516313753&sr=8-9&keywords=buggy+whip But I doubt that is any consolation to the horse and buggy industry of just over a century ago. (If fact I can imagine that some manufacturers made much the same argument about future whip demand that you are making about future oil demand. But that missed the larger transition going on right in front of them.)

If liquid petroleum is the lifeblood of techno-industrial society, then wouldn't a descent to 30 mm bopd mean the end of that civilization?

We may be arguing the trajectory, timing or slope of the decent. But not whether it occurs this century (and perhaps in the lifetime of the folks here).

aspera wrote:

Just as SOME crude oil will be available for many decades. Well beyond 2041.

Rock, I don't think that's the point to this website or even to this post. We can still buy buggy whips (https://smile.amazon.com/Intrepid-International-Driving-Whip-53-Inch/dp/B000FFDVLU/ref=sr_1_9?ie=UTF8&qid=1516313753&sr=8-9&keywords=buggy+whip But I doubt that is any consolation to the horse and buggy industry of just over a century ago. (If fact I can imagine that some manufacturers made much the same argument about future whip demand that you are making about future oil demand. But that missed the larger transition going on right in front of them.)

If liquid petroleum is the lifeblood of techno-industrial society, then wouldn't a descent to 30 mm bopd mean the end of that civilization?

We may be arguing the trajectory, timing or slope of the decent. But not whether it occurs this century (and perhaps in the lifetime of the folks here).

But it's not as if substitutes for the vast majority of the oil burned today don't exist. And if it gets scarce and thus very expensive, more substitutes will be viable.

So for transport, for example, in 30 years or so if oil is very expensive, BEV's will likely supplant the vast majority of them. Or NG vehicles. Or fuel cell vehicles. Or most likely, some variety of the above and more.

If oil becomes very dear, then it will ONLY be used for the petrochemicals/plastics that can't be readily substituted for at a moderate or even relatively high price. It might well be inconvenient, but I believe that as long as the end is gradual and obvious, entities like business and governments and even consumers will adapt. They won't like it in many cases, but that's one thing markets and economic pricing signals do -- they force people to adapt.