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A Crash Program Scenario for the Canadian Oil Sands Industry

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

A Crash Program Scenario for the Canadian Oil Sands Industry

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 14 Jun 2008, 15:39:14

Peakoil.net (PDF).

Dante started a thread on this two years ago: Canada’s Oil Sands Will Not Prevent PO-Uppsala U. I don't think the studies forum was around then though, and thought this deserved its own thread.

DantesPeak wrote:A Crash Program Scenario for the Canadian Oil Sands Industry
Bengt Soderbergh, Fredrik Robelius and Kjell Aleklett
Contact: Kjell Aleklett
Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group
Uppsala University, Box 535, SE-751 21, Sweden
Contact e-mail: [email protected]

Abstract
The report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, by Robert L. Hirsch et al., concludes that Peak Oil is going to happen and that worldwide large-scale mitigation efforts are necessary to avoid its possible devastating effects for the world economy. These efforts include accelerated production, referred to as crash program production, from Canada’s oil sands. The objective of this article is to investigate and analyse what production levels that might be reasonable to expect from a crash program for the Canadian oil sands industry, within the time frame 2006-2018 and 2006-2050. The implementation of a crash program for the Canadian oil sands industry is associated with serious difficulties. There is not a large enough supply of natural gas to support a future Canadian oil sands industry with today’s dependence on natural gas. It is possible to use bitumen as fuel and for upgrading, although it seems to be incompatible with Canada’s obligations under the Kyoto treaty. For practical long-term high production, Canada must construct nuclear facilities to generate energy for the in situ projects. Even in a very optimistic scenario Canada’s oil sands will not prevent Peak Oil. A short-term crash program from the Canadian oil sands industry achieves about 3.6 mb/d by 2018. A long-term Crash program results in a production of approximately 5 mb/d by 2030.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
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Oil is a Scarce Resource

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 16 Feb 2018, 09:38:53


Building a country or a region’s economy on the extraction of a resource is fool hardy. A resource extracted is gone! It is no longer there! Inevitably payday will come, maybe not within our lifetime, maybe not within our children’s lifetime, but it will come. True, by the time that resource is extracted, there may be new technology that reduces our need for that particular resource, but those who believe that have an extraordinary amount of faith in human ingenuity. Surely it is better to avoid building an economy on resource extraction if at all possible. I’ve been thinking about this a lot these days as I have been monitoring Alberta’s current dispute with BC. As I see it, here is the basic dispute: Alberta has this vast under-exploited resource of oil sands. In order to benefit from this resource, it


Oil is a Scarce Resource
Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.

StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020
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Re: A Crash Program Scenario for the Canadian Oil Sands Indu

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 16 Feb 2018, 10:54:04

It’s assumed all areas have multiple opportunities to grow their economy and improve the lives of its people. So the Saudi people should have not developed its oil resources? And then what…sell sand to grow its economy? LOL. London has multiple centers of economy not directly related to coal mining. But would it even exist in it current form without England long ago developing its now nearly extinct coal industry? Texas has one of the healthiest economies and largest sovereign funds IN THE WORLD. And while it is no longer as heavily focused on fossil fuels as it once was would it be in its current condition had it once not been heavily focused on oil/NG a few decades ago?

Being focused on one’s best resource is not an option but typically a regions only choice. The mistake comes from not using that strength to develop other opportunities especially when that strength comes from a depleting resource. And that resource need not be a natural one. Consider the powerhouse Detroit once was due to the auto industry. But foreign competition took that away. And the Detroit economy, having done little to expand beyond auto production, has suffered greatly as a result.
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Re: A Crash Program Scenario for the Canadian Oil Sands Indu

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 16 Feb 2018, 15:58:33

ROCKMAN wrote:The mistake comes from not using that strength to develop other opportunities especially when that strength comes from a depleting resource. And that resource need not be a natural one. Consider the powerhouse Detroit once was due to the auto industry. But foreign competition took that away. And the Detroit economy, having done little to expand beyond auto production, has suffered greatly as a result.

Ding ding ding ding ding!

Given the lack of people learning from history, you'd think humanity had brains the size of, say, bacteria, when it comes to economic planning. Which to me, is actually pretty AMAZING, given how fixated human attention is on money (or more broadly, the standard of living), generally.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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